Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

[John_42]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

When we debunk we do so thoroughly. It is our way.

. . .
This kind of grunt work is a major contributor to iTulip's forecasting success and how we come up with original and unique ideas: we dig through the data, push it around, analyze it, and allow surprising truths to reveal themselves. It's a solid differentiator for us because most people don't want to work that hard. :cool:

I read this and just for fun thought, Soup Kitchens were a common sight after the Crash of 29; so I Googled Campbells Soup and this came up:

Campbell Soup only S&P gainer


Herald News Services

Published: Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Campbell Soup Co. was the only company in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to rise in trading Monday after the U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700-billion US plan to rescue the financial system, causing stocks to plunge.
Campbell, the world's largest soup-maker, climbed 12 cents to $37.75 on the New York Stock Exchange. The Camden, N.J.-based company has increased 5.7 per cent this year, while the S&P 500 has dropped 25 per cent.


I guess your right, you never know where the data will lead.

[goadam1]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

any news on second day of term rallies? Also, did people buy as many computers in the great depression as they do in this one? I see apple did very well. Also, do left handed presidents do better than right handed presidents?

[Charles Mackay]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

Yes, the market is pricing in debt deflation but did you see the banking index plunge 17.3%, a three year low and more dramatically still it has fallen 42% in this month alone! That's pricing in a banking catastrophe!

Citibank fell 20%
B of A fell 30%!!!
JPMorgan fell 20.73%
State Street fell 56%
Wells Fargo fell 25%
PNC fell 50%
RBOS lost 78% between Monday and Tuesday
Lloyd's lost 33%
Barclays lost 18%
UBS lost 17%
Credit Suisse lost 18.5%

UnFRICKINbelievable!!! Will your money be there when you want to go to stocks?

[FRED]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

When we debunk we do so thoroughly. It is our way.

More importantly, the exercise uncovered unexpected information, such as the fact that stock market rarely ends up below where it started in a president's term, and in no case has a stock market ended down two terms in a row, a fact worth noting when timing our eventual move back into the stock market. You can see the FIRE Economy in the charts as well, starting in Reagan's first term and ending in Bush II's second term.

This kind of grunt work is a major contributor to iTulip's forecasting success and how we come up with original and unique ideas: we dig through the data, push it around, analyze it, and allow surprising truths to reveal themselves. It's a solid differentiator for us because most people don't want to work that hard. :cool:

[jimmygu3]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

Stock market delivers worst Presidential inauguration performance ever. What does it mean?

What conclusions can we draw from this historical examination of inauguration day stock market turnouts? That context is helpful, and of course nothing beats 20/20 hindsight, but that at the extremes the market's reaction to a new President's first day do tell a story.

Eric,

I am frankly surprised you took the time to do such a thorough case-by-case analysis, when a simple scatter graph like the one below makes it pretty evident that there's no meaningful correlation. My take is that with 13 of the 20 largest point losses and 10 of the 20 largest point gains ever happening in the last 18 weeks, volatility is the soup du jour. It's only fitting that inauguration day was another wild swing.

Jimmy

[goadam1]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

What is the stat on second day rallies?

[DrYB/C]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

When all is said and done, after all efforts are made to prove ourselves more clever than our ancestors, the only lesson we may hope to learn is to not allow credit bubbles to develop in the first place, because once they do they are destined to collapse, and once the collapse begins they will tend to continue to the end, either quickly or slowly, regardless of who is in charge of the government. That may very well be the message that the stock market is conveying to us today.

Related (?):
1. Obama Inauguration: Slide on Wall Street. Where have all the Creditors Gone?...
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=11919

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

Do you still think that an alternative energy bubble will pull America away from this or has the FIRE economy simply eroded too much to generate a bubble?

I think iTulip's alt-energy bubble will be in full blast-off mode by this time next year - maybe "well early" of their expectation that it's still two or three years out. IMO the stock market will do exactly what is going to be required of it - lead the entire economy out of the debt deflation ( and into "the next bubble"! :rolleyes: ). iTulip called it a long time ago. The only surprise now I think is that it's going to arrive "way early" too!

Forbes is calling for a blistering rally in the equities by the end of '09. Many people would consider that a "contrarian's bell" indicator that the opposite is going to happen. Just to confound the otherwise savvy contrarians I think they are going to be on the money with this call.

[BadJuju]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

The Nexy Bubble recommended as a primer.

Do you still think that an alternative energy bubble will pull America away from this or has the FIRE economy simply eroded too much to generate a bubble?

[FRED]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

bubbles always form, I still think it is funny that EJ just said we need to do a better job of identifying bubbles and squash it when we do. BUT as long as humans are the main drivers of the markets there will always be greed+fear and bubbles. Geithner today said he wanted to stop all asset bubbles after they form just like EJ just said and I was thinking, THAT IS THE MARKET! All history shows that is the market. Bubbles and Busts....

The Nexy Bubble recommended as a primer.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

bubbles always form, I still think it is funny that EJ just said we need to do a better job of identifying bubbles and squash it when we do. BUT as long as humans are the main drivers of the markets there will always be greed+fear and bubbles. Geithner today said he wanted to stop all asset bubbles after they form just like EJ just said and I was thinking, THAT IS THE MARKET! All history shows that is the market. Bubbles and Busts....

[goadam1]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

I don't see any correlation in any of this data. I do see luck of timing. The best part is Clinton "oversaw" a giant bubble and was bashed for taxing it a little bit. We will have less of these problems when people have the political will to tax bubbles and cut when they collapse. Seems simple to do.

[metalman]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

i'd need a week to recreate this.

[ASH]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

You're missing a derivative somewhere. Obama's about change, remember?

Numerical approximation by method of finite differences?

[Scot]

Re: Worst Presidential inauguration stock market performance ever. What does it mean? - Eric Janszen

bush and hoover... republicans... oversaw the worst stock markets in history while fed and clinton... dems... oversaw the biggest booms.

but...

hoover and clinton ran bubble economies, fdr and bush busts... ergo...

clinton + 1st 1/2 bush = 1st 1/2 hoover
2nd 1/2 bush = 2nd 1/2 hoover

fdr = 2nd 1/2 obama

You're missing a derivative somewhere. Obama's about change, remember?