Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

[ax]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

Thought this was interesting concerning how auto job losses will be reported:

"The statistical treatment of those workers, which determines when and where they show up in unemployment data, is complicated.

Furloughed workers show up in weekly jobless claims data, but won't be counted in the monthly payroll survey. Because they remain on the payroll while they receive severance payments, the company will report them as employed. However, they may show up in the unemployment figures, which are based on a separate survey of households."

So even though monthly reports may start coming in at 500K or so, we'll be sitting on tens or hundreds of thousands of unemployed that will show up in weekly numbers.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/qua...-in-bankruptcy

[TheServant]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

Heck, even the "Without Recovery Plan" curve is starting to fall behind the rise in U3. Whoops.

[metalman]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

ej's forecast 10% when it was 6.5%...

Forecast July 2008

Ground Zero state
National Unemployment Growth Rank: 4
Macro-economic Vulnerability: High
Unemployment Growth Rate: High
Estimated Post Recession Peak Unemployment Rate: 10%
Future Home Values Rating: Poor

ej's updated forecast 12% when it was 8.5%...

Actual January 2009

Reassessment: With unemployment already pushing 8.5% from 6.5% at the time of our previous forecast, we are revising our forecast for CA unemployment to peak at 12% versus 10%.

and now... 11%...



another update coming?

[Sharky]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

So the Obama administration predicts his recovery plan will keep the peak in unemployment around 8% in Q3 2009 after which it drops to 5% by mid 2013.

With U-3 already at around 9%, even before the end of 2009 Q2, this chart is already looking absurdly optimistic.

[wayiwalk]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

A thought just occurred to me related to this discussion of measuring unemployment.

One of the areas which has reduced the unemployment in the last few years has been hiring by state and the federal gov't. And one thing that will slow the increase in unemployment is what the president just signed into law this week - the bill funding volunteerism, which includes stipends of up to $12,000 or so per year.

Remember, anything measured by the gov't is really just subject to how the gov't decides to define that item ( a great example is redefinitions of cpi).

It occurred to me that this type of "stipended work" is really just a dry run for the WPA of the 1930's. It will be very easy to double or triple or quintuple that funding.

Anyone else see that connection?

[FRED]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

Seasonally adjusted
U-5 8.8%
U-6 13.9%


Not seasonally adjusted
U-5 9.7%
U-6 15.4%

Thanks, bart!

[bart]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

There is no apples-to-apples comparison between unemployment rates reported as standard in the 1970s/1980s and today. If we had to say, the old U-5 is probably between the new U-5 and U-6. We'd tell you what the numbers are but the database is currently down (see Bureau of Labor Statistics). Perhaps 9% to 10%?

Seasonally adjusted
U-5 8.8%
U-6 13.9%


Not seasonally adjusted
U-5 9.7%
U-6 15.4%

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

Any more changes based on January #?

I noticed the birth/death model correction (manipulation) kept us from getting VERY close to 1 million...

[we_are_toast]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

How can unemployment peak at 9% in two years when unemployment is already 7.2%, up from 5% a year ago? Doesn't make sense. Roubini needs to sharpen his pencil and run the numbers again.

Apparently Dr. Roubini got a new pencil but failed to sharpen it.

Roubini said economic growth in China will slow to less than 5 percent and the U.S. will lose 6 million jobs. The American economy will expand 1 percent at most in 2010 as private spending falls and unemployment climbs to at least 9 percent, he added.

Given the current 7.2% unemployment, how does a 6 million job loss stay anywhere near 9%? And it would seem to be a real trick for the U.S. economy to expand and still loose 6 million jobs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ao5mihirSB1Y

[metalman]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

Both.

12% in 2009. 20% in 2010. This jobs update and revisions are all for peaks in the year 2009, not total in this downturn.

that is his answer... starting to appear optimistic at this time.

[ryph]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

why doesn't Fred answer the question: 12% or 20%? Please don't parse the answer with references to old stat formulas. Do you have different opinions? Have you revised your estimate?

Both.

12% in 2009. 20% in 2010. This jobs update and revisions are all for peaks in the year 2009, not total in this downturn.

[GRG55]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

the idea is flawed... we have a service/fire econ. they ain't suited for road repairs...

Oh puleeeze. The very thought of Wall Streeters getting dirt under their carefully manicured fingernails. Horrors.

They don't need to be suited for road repairs, metal. The FIRE economy jobs will be saved by nationalizing the financial sector. Voila. Instant public sector employees...and not a single Lunchbucket Larry to spoil the day.

[Sharky]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

the idea is flawed... we have a service/fire econ. they ain't suited for road repairs.

Is it really even possible for the government to create new jobs? The jobs would be paid for by either borrowing or new taxes -- but those funds would have been put to work producing jobs in the private sector if they weren't borrowed or taxed.

So where do the new jobs come from? Maybe borrowing from overseas investors?

Or perhaps "new jobs" means something different to the Obama administration than it does to the rest of us?

[LargoWinch]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

if the definition of 'unemployment' changes that tells us everything we need to know about obama.

...or the fact that he will spend more of US taxpayers money on god only knows what.

More of the same Keysian crap, except that the package is a lot more presentable than during the previous Presidency.

[metalman]

Re: Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen

What will the impact be on unemployment stats when Obama's jobs programs get going? Fewer people out of work in the short term, and more in the long term?

I've noticed a few places that they're starting to talk about "providing or saving" three million jobs -- an obvious political out in the event that unemployment continues up after the program is in full gear.

Also, does anyone else sense an impending change in the way unemployment numbers are calculated? After all, if Clinton can do it, why can't Obama -- especially since he's basically bringing the whole Clinton team back with him. It's a lot easier to win with statistics if you can fudge the numbers.

the idea is flawed... we have a service/fire econ. they ain't suited for road repairs.

numbers fudging is the last refuge of the scoundrel. if the definition of 'unemployment' changes that tells us everything we need to know about obama.