2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

[GRG55]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

Hi,
Please excuse my newbie question, but how exactly does one go about shorting US Treasuries? Can somebody provide some examples? I'd like to be ready for when iTulip says "go".

Thanks,
Adeptus

PS. I'm Canadian.

Click here for an active thread on iTulip that is discussing one way to short Treasuries.

[You can put your location in your profile so others can see where you are from/at]

[krakknisse]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

SEK + NOK.

The Norwegians have oil but not much else, the Swedes have no oil but most other resources. Both countries are stable and rather, er, well, boring, which works to their advantage in times like these.

Hate to dampen your illusions, but the property bubble here (Norway') was quite severe. Real estate prices down 15% in 2008 (according to official statistics), but if you actually want to sell, you're talking a 25% hair cut. Banks are reeling. Real estate prices are up 171% inflation-adjusted from the last bottom in 1992, and up 54% inflation adjusted from the very bubbly 1987 top. Linky: http://www.nef.no/asset/1939/1/1939_1.pdf (page 5, figure 6 of the PDF shows nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) prices 1985-2008). Our last crash lead to a very severe recession (top 5 post-WW2 financial crises).

Doom and gloom is commonplace now, but it has slowed a little. Everybody think's we'll be saved by interest rate reductions.

I'd think in Norway in terms of oil. If oil rebounds, we'll be less hard hit. The key word is "less hard". Our government is a net creditor to the world, which is also very good. But there's always the big question about unfunded pension and social obligations. And private debt exploded during the last few years. Not quite Iceland, though.

And don't forget, we only have about 20 kg of gold left. So we're last in line in case a gold-based international currency regime pops up.

I live here, have a quite secure job, good career and no debt. But I'm still looking for a farm or smallholding. I'm not enthusiastic about the NOK.

[Adeptus]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

Hi,
Please excuse my newbie question, but how exactly does one go about shorting US Treasuries? Can somebody provide some examples? I'd like to be ready for when iTulip says "go".

Thanks,
Adeptus

PS. I'm Canadian.

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

Good day and a Happy New Year! I was wondering if someone could expand a bit on the notion of "currency event" and "currency dislocation"? What is meant, broadly, by these two? A USD collapse or something else as well? Thank you very much!

[cobben]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

Again, if anyone else has some comments or other currencies they think will hold up during this race to print the most money.

SEK + NOK.

The Norwegians have oil but not much else, the Swedes have no oil but most other resources. Both countries are stable and rather, er, well, boring, which works to their advantage in times like these.

Neither country has great demographics compared to the Islamic areas, you should invest in them if you believe demographics will save you. Uz is one of the best demographically, that should mean the "sum" is a great currency to hold longterm.

50 EUR converted to Uzbek sum:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxPvufIivaQ

(Full disclosure: please buy some SEK to help support my future Swedish pension.)

[Chris Coles]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

What is a "currency dislocation"?
Can you please provide an historical example, so that I may read up on it?

Thanks

You wake up and find that overnight your government has devalued your national currency by, say, 14% and as we once heard our Prime Minister say; "It does not mean that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued." Prime Minister Harold Wilson

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/d...00/3208396.stm

[raja]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

The only event of twelve noted that has not occurred since then: a currency dislocation. We do not know how it will unfold but expect to see a major currency event this year.

What is a "currency dislocation"?
Can you please provide an historical example, so that I may read up on it?

Thanks

[dtimwinn]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

To me your two most specific forecasts concern (1) the Fed's eventual success in stimulating inflation and (2) oil prices will go nowhere. Hopefully, we'll see more threads along the lines of Best Car Deal in 2009 to inform us about opportunities to buy before prices jump. As part of my year end portfolio revisions, I have been leaning toward going long an oil ETF. I think I'll give that one further thought.

If the thought is that oil prices will not go anywhere in 2009, does the same rationale apply to natural gas prices -- or is there any liklihood that oil and natural gas prices will uncouple?

[tastymannatees]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

Singapore Dollars. Once this horror show is finally over, Asia will have closed ranks. If there is one region where the demographics are still favourable for growth it'll be there. And Singapore has the potential to be the new Switzerland in due course.

I was leaning Singapore Dollars but after looking it over I found that half the GDP was fire economy based. I am back to the hard assets at this stage of the game.

[ax]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

We are working on a specific analysis and forecast for iTulip Select subscribers that draws more from the book research. The title?

2009: Year of the Jump Ball

I think you guys have already provided a suitable framework for the next year if not the next several years. Gold will rise, hyperinflation hits at some point, many retailers will go bust, CRE will implode.....this is plenty of info to position your portfolio around.

[bill]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

Once this horror show is finally over, Asia will have closed ranks. If there is one region where the demographics are still favourable for growth it'll be there.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/200901...rash-2008.html

audio:http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=18007

[tree]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

We see it as an issue of interpretation.

Yes, many are surprised when I inform them of Greenspan's association with the Russian temptress.

History and Literature: Can't beat it!

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

[wrapright]

...
The only event of twelve noted that has not occurred since then: a currency dislocation. We do not know how it will unfold but expect to see a major currency event this year.

As much as it pains us to say it, we cannot shirk from our responsibility to note that the politics of a shrinking global economic pie will not improve prospects for peace in 2009. Our international institutions for regulation of trade and economic development are geared to managing the challenges of growth, not shrinkage. The tendency of nations to withdraw into themselves in times of economic trouble when increased cooperation is all the more critical must be countered with a concerted effort to maintain close and constructive economic and political ties. Europe is especially vulnerable, and we hope that US leadership stays particularly close to its European allies during the year ahead.

...

I read this like you rather lean to a currency dislocation event in the euro and not in the dollar.
Was this intended or did I misread you? I'd apreaciate if you could clear this doubt up.

[GRG55]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

...Again, if anyone else has some comments or other currencies they think will hold up during this race to print the most money...

Singapore Dollars. Once this horror show is finally over, Asia will have closed ranks. If there is one region where the demographics are still favourable for growth it'll be there. And Singapore has the potential to be the new Switzerland in due course.

[MikePal1]

Re: 2008 Review in Pictures and 2009 Forecast - Eric Janszen

Interesting counter to my argument. China may be hurt worse by the ka, given the huge softening of demand for their products, but I bet it does much better during the poom, as it would have (if they didn't control its value) during the inflationary period prior to July, '08. I guess this may not be the best time, but I do still think the trade would be a pretty big winner once the inflationary stage kicks in, although gold still should do better than either.

Again, if anyone else has some comments or other currencies they think will hold up during this race to print the most money. The way the past few trading sessions have gone it looks like the dollar may hang in there for awhile, although now until Obama takes over looks as though its going to be nothing more than one big short squeeze for oil, retailers, and possibly in the dollar as well.