The jobs recession is here: Time to get to work - Janszen

[jimmygu3]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Jay,

The only country in Central America with just a Pacific coast is El Salvador. As for South America, the clue narrows one down to just three countries, Ecuador, Peru, Chile.

Adam West: El Salvador, Ecuador, Peru, Chile.... it's a clue!
Burt Ward: We have to hurry Batman, or Sapiens will press the doomsday button!
Adam West: Ecuador, Equador, equator! Robin, what's the equator of Gotham?
Burt Ward: The Gordon Beltline Expressway!
Adam West: And who serves the best chili in town?
Burt Ward: Of course, Sal & Pero's Chili Hut on the beltline!
Adam West: To the batmobile!

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Jay,

The only country in Central America with just a Pacific coast is El Salvador. As for South America, the clue narrows one down to just three countries, Ecuador, Peru, Chile.

[Sapiens]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Well, at least it isn't solar eclipses and the occult.;)

Jay,

It is all about the information. ;)

-Sapiens

P.S. Hidden in plain sight. :cool:

[Jay]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Because the paper is not public. Yet you may find a clue here:

http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm...d=display_body

Damn, I don't want the Hardy Boys, I want it served up to me on a silver platter!

The Economic Review... I don't want to slog through that, my brain is already cooked from this place. Well, at least it isn't solar eclipses and the occult.;)

[Sapiens]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Could you give us some real info? A cryptic posting means nothing in and of itself. Why not mention the countries, and more important what the outcomes were.

Because the paper is not public. Yet you may find a clue here:

http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm...d=display_body

[bart]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Much appreciate these comments. Unfortunately, each time we write these articles, intended for a broad audience, we cannot explain to readers that the current U6 is the new U3, the rate that is referred to in the press simply as as "Unemployment." Government statistics distortion is an entire subject in and of itself that general readers are not familiar with. Going into it in each piece distracts from the main point, and anyway readers don't really want to think about it.

My apologies Fred. It didn't even occur to me that it was confusing for others... and my apologies to them too. I know how I used to mumble to myself about things like that when I was first learning and now I find myself guilty of the same thing.

I've just created a new chart with the normal U-3 rate, and replaced my original post with it... and hopefully that won't make it even more confusing.


This is the new one that matches your charts, and that has also been substituted earlier in the thread with the normal unemployment rate.





This is the other one that was confusing.

[Charles Mackay]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

u-3 versus u-6 iirc. different definitions of unemployment. u-6, which is what bart uses, includes discouraged workers and, iirc, those working part time because they are unable to find full time work. it corresponds to "unemployment" of the 1970's. thus when looking at a modern "misery index" you need to add u-6 to inflation+lies [or shadowstats' number].

ahh, ok, ... and even U-6 is light according to John Williams..

[FRED]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Much appreciate these comments. Unfortunately, each time we write these articles, intended for a broad audience, we cannot explain to readers that the current U6 is the new U3, the rate that is referred to in the press simply as as "Unemployment." Government statistics distortion is an entire subject in and of itself that general readers are not familiar with. Going into it in each piece distracts from the main point, and anyway readers don't really want to think about it.

Mitigating the deflation of the true rate of unemployment by government statisitcs is the fact that the employment market is far more dynamic now than in the 1970s. The Internet not only makes finding a job easier – a national job search through networking is now trivial – and starting a business is trivial as well. There is some truth to the New Economy. It's not all BS.

[Jay]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

I can't tell you the countries, but the above theory has been tested in one Central American country and one South American country, both of which only have a Pacific coast line.

Could you give us some real info? A cryptic posting means nothing in and of itself. Why not mention the countries, and more important what the outcomes were.

[bart]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Very nice chart, Bart. This correlation seems obvious once you see it but it's not one I had made before. I hope you don't mind but I overlaid the recession lines from EJs post onto your chart. I think it adds even more texture to your idea.

[ATTACH]509[/ATTACH]

More power to you or anyone who extends my work. Recession data does add some broad perspective and I probably would have added it myself if I had lots of free time.

And by the way, a few may know it, but the actual basic concept is also known as the much & correctly maligned Phillips Curve, also noted by the same Irving Fisher that said in 1929 - "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_Curve

Thanks to jk too for answering and detailing the U-6 vs. U-3 unemployment definitions, etc.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm is the definition source, and U-3 is the "normal" one quoted by most media. I do track both but didn't have a chart available with U-3 and CPI w/o lies.

[santafe2]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Another view that basically confirms EJ's overall unemployment target. There's a lagging relationship between unemployment and (corrected) CPI-U.

Very nice chart, Bart. This correlation seems obvious once you see it but it's not one I had made before. I hope you don't mind but I overlaid the recession lines from EJs post onto your chart. I think it adds even more texture to your idea.

BartChart.jpg

[jk]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Bart, wondering why the data is so different in the 92-94 recession? Yours is over 12% and EJ's is 8% ????

u-3 versus u-6 iirc. different definitions of unemployment. u-6, which is what bart uses, includes discouraged workers and, iirc, those working part time because they are unable to find full time work. it corresponds to "unemployment" of the 1970's. thus when looking at a modern "misery index" you need to add u-6 to inflation+lies [or shadowstats' number].

[Charles Mackay]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Another view that basically confirms EJ's overall unemployment target. There's a lagging relationship between unemployment and (corrected) CPI-U.

Bart, wondering why the data is so different in the 92-94 recession? Yours is over 12% and EJ's is 8% ????

[Sapiens]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

The Fed's theory since the early 1980s is that the primary source of inflation is rising wages, and that if labor costs can be contained by increased competition for jobs, as occurs during recessions, their inflation problem will be solved.

This belief is at the core of current economic orthodoxy and ideology. No mainstream economist dares to note that falling wages and rising inflation can happen at the same time if another source of inflation exists outside wages, such as rising energy import costs due to a weak currency. The dynamic in the extreme is well known to Argentina from that nation's 2001 experience with inflation. In the US case, foreign central banks buffer the currency deflation process, and so we instead experience the decline as the Dollar Ratchet. As unemployment rises, debt becomes more difficult for households to service, accelerating a major cause of falling demand in the private sector – debt deflation. The US economy contracts further, foreign lenders have less money to sent to the US to allow us to live in the manner to which we have become accustomed, the dollar weakens more leading to a further increases in imported energy costs and inflation. The ideology of wage containment to prevent inflation is facing a rude confrontation with reality. [/LEFT]

I can't tell you the countries, but the above theory has been tested in one Central American country and one South American country, both of which only have a Pacific coast line.

[bart]

Re: The jobs recession is here. Time to get to work.

Another view that basically confirms EJ's overall unemployment target. There's a lagging relationship between unemployment and (corrected) CPI-U.