People are sentimental, markets are not

[santafe2]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

I've posted many of my charts here on iTulip and the one that is still a glaring buy on gold is the gold/oil ratio... It hit an all time low of 6.5 last month. That's the lowest ratio ever... gold is very very cheap.

I have a version of this chart that I reference occasionally. Mine only goes back to 1990. It would be interesting to see one going back to 1970. I've noticed a coincidence of these lows with recessions. In 3 of 4 cases, they presaged the arrival of bad economic conditions. Of course, 2005 is not explained by this.

Although I am currently buying, I'm not convinced the gold/oil ratio is telling us that gold is a screaming buy. It may be telling us that oil is becoming a more rare resource. It would not surprise me to see this ratio move below 5:1 in the next 10 years even as gold moves up.

gold-oil.jpg

[sadsack]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

It's a selloff - CEF was trading at a sub-4% premium to NAV yesterday (although it's back above 8% at the close of trading today).

I hope JN noticed . . .

[phirang]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

in 76 gold went from 200 to 100, on the way to 800. that implies we could see about 510. ready for that?

I own more gold equities than bullion, and the equities are pricing in 600 gold already, and so bring the pain!

[jk]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

in 76 gold went from 200 to 100, on the way to 800. that implies we could see about 510. ready for that?

[metalman]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

miraculously, said shit brick remains in oven...



if $780 holds i'm wondering... wtf?

[Andreuccio]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

I'd be happy to Andreuccio. At the moment I'm in Netarts Bay getting away from the heat (probably the last heat wave we'll have this year on the west coast) .. will post a ratio chart with the latest data as soon as I get back to the "mainframe" ..

Thanks. Enjoy the Bay. My sister's in Portland. Love it up there. I'd move in a heartbeat if I could duplicate my employment situation.

[Charles Mackay]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

Hence Soros shorting oil and going long gold.

Do you have a link to that chart? (Updated version would be great, if possible.)

Thanks.

I'd be happy to Andreuccio. At the moment I'm in Netarts Bay getting away from the heat (probably the last heat wave we'll have this year on the west coast) .. will post a ratio chart with the latest data as soon as I get back to the "mainframe" ..

[Andreuccio]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

I've posted many of my charts here on iTulip and the one that is still a glaring buy on gold is the gold/oil ratio... It hit an all time low of 6.5 last month. That's the lowest ratio ever... gold is very very cheap.

Hence Soros shorting oil and going long gold.

Do you have a link to that chart? (Updated version would be great, if possible.)

Thanks.

[Charles Mackay]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

There is a time in every bull market where small cocky leveraged players enter the market cautiously, and then just shortly thereafter (with rapidly increasing prices) add to their positions incautiously. Anyone here trade gold in 1974? There was a eureka moment that year when leveraged players entered the market and thought it was a no risk situation. All that "moron leverage" had to be eliminated before the 8x move that followed could take place.

Anyone trade "spews" in 1987? Same situation. This is normal and happens prior to the real bull market.

I've posted many of my charts here on iTulip and the one that is still a glaring buy on gold is the gold/oil ratio... It hit an all time low of 6.5 last month. That's the lowest ratio ever... gold is very very cheap.

[ocelotl]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

This correction is also hitting me a lot, still, measured in USD, it is as if my profits so far into the year have given me the as a gift all the physical silver I've bought.

Measured as it is valued, in MXN, my profits so far into the year have been erased by this correction, but as my father and me agreed upon last night, the good point of physical PM's is that they are there, and not just recicled electrons or bits of cotton paper or plastic. Also, this week I got nearly 700 USD on PM's (I prefer the ones at my signature and Hidalgos), to reduce my average buying price, feel a bit overbought, but still can sleep well at night.

[Andreuccio]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

US$ probably will hit 80 in the next weeks to months.

Oil won't hit $80 in anyone's lifetime.

For $XEU to get to 137 isn't unreasonable.

SPX will hit 1200 before it ever visits 1380.

These are my bets.

As an example of people being sentimental:

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, JIM!!!!!

[metalman]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN closes in 6 hrs. 28 mins.
Aug 15, 2008 10:48 NY Time
Bid/Ask	786.80	-	788.00
Low/High	774.90	-	800.70
Change	-18.90		-2.35%
30daychg	-172.50		-17.98%
1yearchg	+117.90		+17.63%

I think it's brick-shitting time:eek:

but it did stop near $780, so far...

[jtabeb]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

there goes gold. under $800...



if it doesn't stop near $780 as itulip estimates, i'll shit a brick.

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN closes in 6 hrs. 28 mins.
Aug 15, 2008 10:48 NY Time
Bid/Ask	786.80	-	788.00
Low/High	774.90	-	800.70
Change	-18.90		-2.35%
30daychg	-172.50		-17.98%
1yearchg	+117.90		+17.63%

I think it's brick-shitting time:eek:

[metalman]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

For those with the option, buying ETFs in an IRA brokerage account takes away (or at least defers) the tax hit. It is an obvious move to try to hold the tax disadvantaged investments (precious metals) in a tax advantaged account (IRA). I don't remember seeing this highlighted elsewhere, and wanted to mention it.

It seems that SLV might also be a consideration for the 'small trade'.
As of the 8/14 close, SLV is 32% off its 52 week high, while GLD was 21% off its 52 week high.
Silver is down an additional $1 tonight.
--Ronin

"small" trade's getting big... gold under $779.50!

[ronin]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

i'm going to try to use "the small trade in the big trade" theory this time... use etf gld. i'll wait until $810, don't know if i have the guts to wait for gold to go under $800, and as you say there's a good chance it won't.

For those with the option, buying ETFs in an IRA brokerage account takes away (or at least defers) the tax hit. It is an obvious move to try to hold the tax disadvantaged investments (precious metals) in a tax advantaged account (IRA). I don't remember seeing this highlighted elsewhere, and wanted to mention it.

It seems that SLV might also be a consideration for the 'small trade'.
As of the 8/14 close, SLV is 32% off its 52 week high, while GLD was 21% off its 52 week high.
Silver is down an additional $1 tonight.
--Ronin