Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

No, unfortunately my late friend, Mike Robertson made very little:

"The CFTC raised margin rates to 100%. The Hunts were accused of market manipulation and ordered to unwind their position.

They were subpoenaed by Congress to testify about their true motives. After a decade of litigation, Bunker received a lifetime ban from the commodities markets, a $10 million fine, and was forced into a Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Mike saw commissions worth $14 million in today's money go unpaid.

In the end, he was only left with a Rolex watch, his broker's license, and a silver Mercedes."

Quote by John Thomas


I met Mike in the mid 80's and became a close friend. We spoke frequently and I saw Mike one or two times a year, the last time a few months before his death at 61.

I miss him, but still keep in close touch with 8 of our other buddies that spent a lot of time together with Mike and I.

Thanks for the clarification. How very sad, holding the short end of the proverbial stick in business is often very destructive of health and family. Again, like you I have lost friends that made a huge difference to my understanding of much that surrounds us today. Their memory lives on and often sustains us.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

This figure caught my eye

[LargoWinch]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

[Posted on 11-27-18, 03:35 PM]


Conclusion

If we accept the notion that the Fed has in active Asset Price Inflation the opportunity to avoid a macro-economic crisis precipitated by a market crash and deployed it previously, from 2013 to 2015, and can by application of active Asset Price Inflation continue the already lengthy expansion without interfering with counter-cyclical policy objectives, we are still left with the question: How long can this go on?

Longer than you think.

Timing is everything:



I don't want to blame EJ specificaly - The point is again: No one can forecast the markets. No one.

The first admission of someone honest is to say "I have no idea".

Paying for forecasting services should be regarded as entertainment only. Like fortune tellers at the local fare.

[vt]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

Anyone who has read this site for a couple of years clearly recognizes that it looks at the long term picture. Anyone looking for short term advice needs to go elsewhere.

There have been 6 corrections of 10% to 19%, and 6 corrections between 5.7% and 9.9% since the market bottomed in 2009. Trying to buy and sell through those is fruitless.

Markets don't recover after a 19% drop in a matter of weeks; it takes months.

By the way Finster's Systems did give advance warning of bonds doing better than stocks over the summer. Anyone not reading his posts is missing valuable information on an intermediate basis.

While I've only been following this site since 2010, I have read and been better educated about the global economy and key investment markets.

Advice to get out of stocks in March, 2000 and into long term government bonds, plus
shifting 15% into gold is incredible long term advice. If one had done ony this they would have done much better than any other source, in my opinion.

The call to sell stocks in December, 2007 was also exceptional.

Anyone reading EJ's early 2014 piece and subsequent posts could have clearly seen
his chart of the 10 year bond then at 3% potentially headed to 1.6%. Almost every other bond forecaster was looking for bond yields to go up.

Buying long term government bonds gave much better profits between February, 2014 and February, 2016.

This is not a forecasting site but it does provide what I consider to be some of the very best analysis I've seen in 50 years.

One has to read, study, and decide how to act based on their goals, time constraints, and risk tolerance.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. Reading long term analysis and trying to make short term decisionsis a fool's game

[touchring]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

Timing is everything:

I don't want to blame EJ specificaly - The point is again: No one can forecast the markets. No one.

The first admission of someone honest is to say "I have no idea".

Paying for forecasting services should be regarded as entertainment only. Like fortune tellers at the local fare.

Geopolitics is now the biggest danger.

Xi has been hinting about reuniting Taiwan with China for a very long time. You can find that from his speeches and moves in the South China Sea. But no one is taking him and his motives seriously. What if he is for real? Will EJ speculate over this given that VirZoom is highly dependent on Chinese suppliers?

Ray Dalios and Jack Ma have hit the nail of the head with regards to this problem.

[Chomsky]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Central Banks Are on the Biggest Gold-Buying Spree in a Half Century

By Rupert Rowling
and Susanne Barton

January 31, 2019, 12:00 AM EST Updated on January 31, 2019, 5:33 AM EST

• Central banks had second-largest year of purchases on record

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ree-in-decades

[jk]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

meanwhile, looking at the latest available tic data, major foreign holdings of treasuries DECREASED 2% from oct 17 to oct 18.

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

meanwhile, looking at the latest available tic data, major foreign holdings of treasuries DECREASED 2% from oct 17 to oct 18.

All others have come down 20% and then look at the numbers for what one might describe as major allies, all are up in proportion; so if you factor in those numbers, 2% is an gross understatement.

[jk]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

All others have come down 20% and then look at the numbers for what one might describe as major allies, all are up in proportion; so if you factor in those numbers, 2% is an gross understatement.

my main point is that in aggregate, foreign central banks are not buying treasuries. but they are buying gold.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

I own a little bit of Palladium. It taught me about my flawed thinking on investments. I bought my few coins when Palladium was trading at $750/oz and within one year the price collapsed to $300-$400 range. In the last year Palladium is on fire and I think its due to scarcity/automobile manufacturing. Again, I find myself struggling with the constant problem with any investment is this the high or is Palladium signaling inflation is on the way?

Should I convert my Palladium to Gold?

Or will auto manufacturers shift away from Palladium for catalytic converters.

Wish I could see the future.

How high will Gold go and when are completely unknowable.

Palladium remains on good run, now up to $1,600.

[Chris]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

So this post didn't age well.

In any case, I resubscribed to iTulip because of the value I found here originally. It was disappointing that nothing happened here for the last two year of my previous membership. I paid up again on the basis that the site was going to be re-vamped though so far it seems like a graveyard has more life.

Timing is everything:



I don't want to blame EJ specificaly - The point is again: No one can forecast the markets. No one.

The first admission of someone honest is to say "I have no idea".

Paying for forecasting services should be regarded as entertainment only. Like fortune tellers at the local fare.

[jk]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

So this post didn't age well.

if by "this post" you mean ej's post that started this thread, i disagree. the thread is less than 4 months old. since that time the fed has halted its rate increases and i expect qt to change back to qe in short order. qe = the fed buying a lot of bonds = a large scale asset purchase, which is what ej predicted.

we are all becoming japanese, economically speaking. the u.s is just 10 years behind japan. the boj began buying equities, not just bonds, in 2013. draw your own conclusions.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Palladium remains on good run, now up to $1,600.

It might be time to sell Pd and buy Pt. Pt is very cheap now relative to Au, and by historic standards. It may be auto catalyst driven.
An "insider" from RS-resources recommended Pt to me and I bought 20 oz. I have poor knowlege of his track record though. First time working
with him. Pd is not rising because of inflation. Inflation drives gold, not so much Pd.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

It might be time to sell Pd and buy Pt. Pt is very cheap now relative to Au, and by historic standards. It may be auto catalyst driven.
An "insider" from RS-resources recommended Pt to me and I bought 20 oz. I have poor knowlege of his track record though. First time working
with him. Pd is not rising because of inflation. Inflation drives gold, not so much Pd.

I find that the hardest part about trading.
Someone told me poor traders kill their winners too soon and let their losers run too long. That's me in a nutshell, so I would take my chips off the table.

While it's undeniable that Pd is at the best price in several years, one wonders how far it might still rise.
Chatter says Russia is in fact clamping down on exports to manipulate prices higher, so there could be another leg up about to unfold.
A better trader than me might just let the winner run and see how far it goes.

[DSpencer]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

if by "this post" you mean ej's post that started this thread, i disagree. the thread is less than 4 months old. since that time the fed has halted its rate increases and i expect qt to change back to qe in short order. qe = the fed buying a lot of bonds = a large scale asset purchase, which is what ej predicted.

we are all becoming japanese, economically speaking. the u.s is just 10 years behind japan. the boj began buying equities, not just bonds, in 2013. draw your own conclusions.

I assume he was talking about LargoWinch's post showing that after EJ said there would not be a crash, stocks had a sharp downturn for a few months. I think your point is the same as what Chis is saying: now that more time has passed this event might prove EJ more right than wrong.

The problem I have is, without specific time frames or what constitutes a big enough drop, how can anything be objectively determined?