Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

I, for one, believe EJ's trust in the sincerity of the major players is misplaced, and quite surprisingly so. Why he thinks , having met them, he can read their minds, like Bush of Putin, (NOT that I am comparing EJ to Bush in any literal sense) seems oddly out of place here. "The banality of evil" comes to mind, or the old line about having someone change their opinion on an issue, the outcome of which, determines their income.
This is systemic psycopathy, with fellow travelling attendents.
If Larry Summers, for instance, "believes" what he writes and says, I will be shocked, just shocked!
No offence meant to anyone, and to be clear, I know none of these folks, so my opinion is worth nothing.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

The UST bull market ended in 2001. From 2001 until the crash in the market for securitized mortgage bonds the UST market was manipulated by rate policy and accelerated foreign UST sales. Since Q2 2009 when short rates effectively hit zero prices of UST have been fixed by policy across the yield curve. Not coincidentally that is when foreign central banks became net gold buyers.

--EJ


Why is "repression" not a good word for that? I would call it "interest rate suppression".

[nonlin_dynamics]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

As far as I can make out, no.

Thanks for the reply.

I did hear EJ speak with Financial Sense and he was mentioning about 3 triggers for a bond market crisis (alluded to at the end of Part I of this article).

1. The Fed itself (gradual transition planning going wrong similar to early 1990s, inadvertently starting a stampede)
2. Disruption among major foreign buyers (Japan/China being at odd with each other on supporting US government spending policy)
3. ?? probably energy induced crisis?

Can't wait to read Part II.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Hi all,

Has Part II been already published?

As far as I can make out, no.

[nonlin_dynamics]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Hi all,

Has Part II been already published?

[Chris]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Paul Volker agrees that QE3 is pointless:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...l-Volcker.html

The Bank of England to pursue more QE. Or should that be QED?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

My best idea for the short term is to make sure you have an appropriately large core position of gold for the long term. If you don't now is a good time to buy more and hold it no matter what it does in the short term....

+1

[rogermexico]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Any ideas for a short-term trade surrounding your expectation of ECB stimulus announcement, or has the market already priced it in and it's too late? Thanks.

My best idea for the short term is to make sure you have an appropriately large core position of gold for the long term. If you don't now is a good time to buy more and hold it no matter what it does in the short term....

[vt]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Short term trading is difficult and fraught with danger.

EJ gave a series of expected ranges for gold this year and next, as well as potential targets for the rest of this decade. That was great advice to plan intermediate and long term plans for whatever gold holdings one would consider.

[gugion]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

The gold price may be telling us that the ECB stimulus that I expect before the end of Sept. to round out the $1 trillion in global Q3 stimulus that I forecast for Q3 earlier in the year may be announced soon.

China, the U.S., and Japan have already announced this month.

Any ideas for a short-term trade surrounding your expectation of ECB stimulus announcement, or has the market already priced it in and it's too late? Thanks.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Thanks Metalman!

[Chomsky]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

The gold price may be telling us that the ECB stimulus that I expect before the end of Sept. to round out the $1 trillion in global Q3 stimulus that I forecast for Q3 earlier in the year may be announced soon.

China, the U.S., and Japan have already announced this month.

Sweden announces stimulus:

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/...-not-austerity

[EJ]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

The gold price may be telling us that the ECB stimulus that I expect before the end of Sept. to round out the $1 trillion in global Q3 stimulus that I forecast for Q3 earlier in the year may be announced soon.

China, the U.S., and Japan have already announced this month.

[metalman]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

No, it will depend entirely on who is doing the asking.

Imagine if it happened this year. How many Patriots do you think would be volunteering their gold for the Marxist, Muslim El Presidente Hussein Obama?

how many? zirp... er...i mean zilch.

in 2022?

this guy... distant memory...

after war & inflation & no video games to play?

our leader then?????

[rogermexico]

Re: Election as Forcing Function - Part I: On Track for a Bond Market Panic - Eric Janszen

Ha Ha Ha

I see your point but we must be careful of contra-contrarianism. Just because you are paranoid does not mean they are not out to get you.

Just because it makes sense does not mean it won't happen in this world that so often makes little sense.

I propose this scenario because I assume that in the big ways they will be mad, and in the small ways they will be lucid.

The same way EJ assumes that earnest attempts to do what really should be done will not be made, but within the framework of continuing to do the wrong thing in the largest sense, they will still behave in a manner that is logical and goal oriented with respect to this wrong plan that they have. That is Kremlinology vis a vis FIRE and the US Govt.

Likewise, my assumption is that TPTB will continue on a path that they do not necessarily see as inevitably leading to gold remonetization, yet they will indeed continue on that path, and when they get to the point where they see that it is inevitable that this is the destination, they will then act in a rational manner to make it work out the best way for themselves, i.e., in a way that gets them the most gold.

The fact that it will not be what gold bugs or doomers predict will have nothing to do with them desiring to prove such people wrong or to punish them, and therefore the fact that it may work out well for holders of gold will only be an accident, and a sign of neither approval not reproach.

These actions will be a force acting on gold holders, not a plot that treats holders of gold as good or bad or anything other than a source of gold.....