Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

[DSpencer]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

I profoundly disagree with this statement.

We've had this disagreement before.

The underlying problem is that we have been restricted to the creation of jobs that satisfy the needs of a very small minority; Venture Capitalists and the like.

Yes, jobs are created by those who can pay salaries to their employees. How else would it work?

You say Venture Capitalist like it's a dirty word. You want funding but dislike those who provide it?

Most VC's want to satisfy the needs of the majority, because that's where the most money is.

If everyone with the gumption to get up and go were funded...

...untold amounts of wealth would be squandered by people with hare-brained business plans spending money that isn't theirs.

Resources are limited. Deciding which deserve funding is part of the function of "Venture Capitalists and the like".

We simply cannot get our hands on funding.

On the very site you're posting on, there are many millionaires/accredited investors who want to put their money to productive use and make a profit. You're a select member - look around. EJ has been providing a service to these members by helping to find suitable investments. The whole site is basically here (imho) to provide insight into why/how certain investments will do well in the future. And while many are happy to hold gold and treasuries, not everyone is. Look around some more, there are many who are actively searching out investments in business ventures.

I can't help but feel that you have had a bad personal experience trying to get funding for some pet project. So you extrapolate that the whole system is broken and no business ventures are being funded. Sorry if I'm way off, but I don't see why else you would keep making these claims.

[c1ue]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

the question raised is what constitutes wealth and production.

I think this question is an important one, but not the real issue.

What I see as a false dichotomy is the notion that somehow intellectual property development is some type of self contained, self reinforcing mechanism.

There are many products/concepts/methods which frankly would not be where they are today were it not for the society, government, and nation which brought them forth, much as these products/concepts/methods prosper in no small part due to initial adoption by its host nation and populace.

It is also unclear to me just how much industrial production is being downsized with respect to the human element by automation due to absolute efficiency, as opposed to automation being cost effective only due to the cost of living having been disastrously raised by FIRE and debt - and further seasoned by having a huge supply of extremely cheap labor elsewhere.

We can also clearly see that millions of extremely low paid individuals in China and elsewhere are apparently cheaper than automation doing the same jobs - after all, just how difficult is it to make a machine which polishes smartphone screens?

Furthermore we see just as clearly from Germany and some other examples that there are more choices than just dirt cheap unskilled labor and robot designers.

To me, this would indicate the primary problem isn't some unchangeable society-wide secular change such as the switch from agriculture to industry, but rather an ongoing botched transition from a low skilled labor industrial environment to whatever the next stage might be, with many additional problems arising due to FIRE, debt, and its impact on corporations and individuals.

I'd in conclusion note that not one of the 5 botched risk factors which EJ noted above have anything to do with any possible industrial/post-industrial labor transition.

The problems the US is seeing, and will continue to see grow, are absolutely solvable, but will not solve themselves.

The ongoing utter lack of recognition of these issues as exemplified by a frankly completely disassociated political system and mass media - that is the 6th risk factor and the one which matters now.

[bagginz]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

Brilliant analysis and superb overview and exposition of the global political economy.

As usual



Many thanks for your great work Eric

[oddlots]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

WOW that is a lot of synthesis and a very condensed message.

Really outstanding.

I've been selecting things that struck me as particularly insightful or helpful for the last two days and puzzling over some issues but finally just felt the need to put that aside and just say great work!

I read too much and am too undisciplined in my attention to make hard progress. You might just save me from myself yet.

Cudos.

[jk]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

I agree with this on a macro, national or even global GDP scale. My questions are:

1. What percentage of the population possesses the intellectual capacity to contribute to this IP? And I don't mean with proper education, I mean at birth. How many people have the innate capacity to continue making progress in semi-conductors and other advanced fields even with the proper training?

2. The world needs ditch diggers, but will it always? And how many? Maybe people have thought along these lines over and over while being proven wrong in the long run. It still seems like we may be reaching a point where more and more jobs are simply out of reach of most people.

the vibrant parts of an economy are not necessarily the biggest employers. and the fact that very few are employed in agriculture- the last revolution's "losing" sector - doesn't belie the fact that the u.s is still an enormous agricultural producer and exporter. nyc is centered on the f.i.r.e. industries, health care and mass media, but i would guess that these employ only a small minority of its workers. around the employees of these sectors there are dry cleaners, sports teams, transportation workers, attorneys, electricians, bodega owners, barbers, accountants, and on and on.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

I agree with this on a macro, national or even global GDP scale. My questions are:

1. What percentage of the population possesses the intellectual capacity to contribute to this IP? And I don't mean with proper education, I mean at birth. How many people have the innate capacity to continue making progress in semi-conductors and other advanced fields even with the proper training?

2. The world needs ditch diggers, but will it always? And how many? Maybe people have thought along these lines over and over while being proven wrong in the long run. It still seems like we may be reaching a point where more and more jobs are simply out of reach of most people.

I profoundly disagree with this statement. The underlying problem is that we have been restricted to the creation of jobs that satisfy the needs of a very small minority; Venture Capitalists and the like. If everyone with the gumption to get up and go were funded, the vast variety of jobs that can be created will satisfy any need we can contemplate.

We simply cannot get our hands on funding.

[DSpencer]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

... it's the intellectual property embodied in the careful and miniscule arrangements of materials in and on the chip. so i'm not convinced that material production must be center of a vibrant economy, just as some a century ago were unconvinced of the centrality of agriculture.

I agree with this on a macro, national or even global GDP scale. My questions are:

1. What percentage of the population possesses the intellectual capacity to contribute to this IP? And I don't mean with proper education, I mean at birth. How many people have the innate capacity to continue making progress in semi-conductors and other advanced fields even with the proper training?

2. The world needs ditch diggers, but will it always? And how many? Maybe people have thought along these lines over and over while being proven wrong in the long run. It still seems like we may be reaching a point where more and more jobs are simply out of reach of most people.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

Gwynedd1,

How is the tea party responsible? The huge majority are ordinary, producing middle class families that paid their bills, didn't take on huge debt, and are upset at a government, debt happy individuals, and the banksters that almost totally destroyed the economy. All the tea party wants is for the debt explosion to cease, and for reasonable debt policies and responsible banking behavior.

Politicians of both parties are responsible, as is Wall Street and those that milked the system at the expense of middle and lower class families.

Because they fundamentally do not understand our monetary system and are blind to rent seeking and access charges that are currently conflated with capital. They are exactly those responsible for framing the wrong debate.


Below alone means they want to hand over a credit monopoly to the bankers who now create most of our fiat currency as it is. The national debt is the money supply.

2. Eliminate the National Debt - By implementing fiscally conservative policies at all levels of government, progress can be made toward eliminating the U.S. National Debt. Massive increases in the National Debt have created and continue to create a huge burden for the next generation of Americans, thus imperiling the country’s short-term and long-term economic health and prosperity.


My platform is


* end the credit monopoly and stop ponzi schemes.
* end tax favoritism for speculation and rent seeking and shift taxes off capital and labor
* size of government is irrelevant. Its the simplicity of government that matters.


The tea party's destructiveness is hard to estimate but their illusion of enlightenment has the usual dangers of a little knowledge. OWS at least knows who is the enemy, if they have no idea how and why.


I liken the Tea party platform to be similar to the founders with one crucial difference. They would choose to make the British royalty citizens and private owners of North America where they are free to charge us rent. Thus all a small government will really mean is the elimination of a redundancy. Most of the middle class is under its jurisdiction and pay taxes in what we call mortgages. Based upon the mortgage expense verse federal taxes I'd say the citizenship belongs more to the financial cartel which wants to weaken its rival.



The enemy is Wall Street.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

Perhaps this will help put the debate into focus. Here in the UK, we do not have anyone manufacturing bearings. All now come from abroad. What we have lost is the skill knowledge. While it is true that, at the top of the knowledge tree, many are making their fortunes from the likes of silicon; everyone else lives in a world where everything eventually wears out and must be replaced. Everything!

The vast majority of product is made from steel. When the upturn comes, all the materials, all the products needed, will have to be imported. Look back at American history and you will discover that a great fortune was made by a man that bought all the depressed steel mills.

Now, they are gone! Do not exist in any shape of form.

Thought provoking?

[jk]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

The problem is the entire economic system. Come on, think outside of the box. A wealthy nation cannot divest itself of all productive means and hope to retain its wealth in the long run.

the question raised is what constitutes wealth and production. it is not just manufacturing. again, i'm sure that during the late 19th century there were farmers arguing that food production was the basis of existence, and that industrial gewgaws were just inessential sideshows. but with much higher agricultural productivity, we needed fewer people farming; we could still produce more than enough to eat. now that process is happening to industrial production. about wealth, i sometimes ponder how sand [silicon] can become so useful and value-laden with the addition of trace amounts of certain metals. it's not the material content that makes a cpu chip valuable. it's the intellectual property embodied in the careful and miniscule arrangements of materials in and on the chip. so i'm not convinced that material production must be center of a vibrant economy, just as some a century ago were unconvinced of the centrality of agriculture.

[flintlock]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

The problem is the entire economic system. Come on, think outside of the box. A wealthy nation cannot divest itself of all productive means and hope to retain its wealth in the long run. Its like a successful mechanic selling off his tools. He had a good thing going, but wanted a bigger house, so he sold off his means of making a living to pay for it. When those proceeds run out he is kaput. You can quibble over the scraps but the basic fact remains. Soon the mechanic's competitors will have his tools and his wealth.

Don't be fooled into the fairy tale sold to us that we'll all get a Phd and sell insurance and useless gadgets to each other and live happily ever after. At some point a country has to ADD VALUE to the world or it will not prosper. What we are seeing is the decline of the value added. "Peak Humans" if you will. Humans are becoming irrelevant in terms of the need for large numbers of them. Therefore, some artificial demand for them will have to be produced, OR the available wealth will have to be distributed . Take your pick. Arguing about how to divide the crumbs won't really matter in the big picture.

[vt]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

Gwynedd1,

How is the tea party responsible? The huge majority are ordinary, producing middle class families that paid their bills, didn't take on huge debt, and are upset at a government, debt happy individuals, and the banksters that almost totally destroyed the economy. All the tea party wants is for the debt explosion to cease, and for reasonable debt policies and responsible banking behavior.

Politicians of both parties are responsible, as is Wall Street and those that milked the system at the expense of middle and lower class families.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

"The FIRE Economy divides the polity into creditors and debtors but the public policy debate remains framed as rich versus poor."

This sentence alone somehow comforts me that I am not the only one who notices the poisoned debate. We also have a divide between those who receive wealth transfers and those that provide them up and down the wealth scale. We have crony monopolists denouncing the welfare state, and the welfare state denouncing the crony monopolists. Gone are the days of labor vs capital that was a fight between the share of increasing wealth centered around the process of production. Rich and poor producers are being raped as an oppressed minority by these politically dominant groups. Both sides simply deflect with the sins of the other when confronted. They in fact inhabit the same necropolis of economic death from the lake view penthouse to low end hovel with a view of the alley. Is that so surprising since those that produce are too busy to represent themselves? The tea party royalists and welfare state rabble have all the time in the world.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

Caught the second part first yesterday; so late here. Thanks EJ, another masterpiece.

[metalman]

Re: Year of the Jump Ball - Part I: Payback - Eric Janszen

Thanks EJ - it was a long wait but this is great.

ej... you held yourself accountable for your 2011 predictions...

bill gross?

kyle bass?

anyone?

baahhhh... who cares.

accountability is dead... on with the show.

thx for the heart & toil... we see it in every phrase & chart... keep it up...