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China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers - Eric Janszen

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  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by Rajiv View Post
    Well said! -- and therein lies the rub -- how to undo the stupidity of the last 30 years (and I choose the term thirty years deliberately, even though some of the first baby steps towards the ultimate stupidity were taken in 1962)
    Thank you Rajiv. Did any of you read that Mervyn King has made a statement about the banks in New York earlier this week. We have turned the corner, yes, but still have a long way to go.... I will put this up as a new thread but here also.
    Mervyn King says banking must be reinvented
    "Of all the many ways of organising banking, the worst is the one we have today."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...king_must.html

    Leave a comment:

  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
    The KC is a tanker. The T-* series are two seat trainers.
    Wriggly, how you doing? Yes, I did know that. I used the plural simply that if you have ever flown over an airfield, (above the MATZ - in a glider), that KC's fly out of, you will forever thereafter think of them in the plural....... all lined up like new cars stored on an airfield.

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  • oddlots
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Classic. Thanks.

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  • Rajiv
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by Chris Coles View Post
    The answer is the improve the prosperity of the bottom 50% of the people. The greater the prosperity at the grass roots of society, the greater the capacity to buy their own production.... of EVERYTHING.... NOT just armaments.
    Well said! -- and therein lies the rub -- how to undo the stupidity of the last 30 years (and I choose the term thirty years deliberately, even though some of the first baby steps towards the ultimate stupidity were taken in 1962)

    Leave a comment:

  • ThePythonicCow
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by Chris Coles View Post
    Wow! tankers!!
    The KC is a tanker. The T-* series are two seat trainers.

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  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
    I've flown both, (I like having one, just in case)

    KC-10A and T-6A, T-37B
    Wow! tankers!! me, when I can afford to, (which is not right now), I am a Lasham pilot www.lasham.org.uk Try a few gliding videos
    http://www.glidingvideo.com/

    Leave a comment:

  • bill
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Gets more intense by the minute.
    Here comes the think tank support report.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2...apan-security/
  • October 27, 2010, 5:20 AM JSTThink Tank Weighs in on U.S.-Japan Security

    By Chester Dawson

    Whither the U.S-Japan security alliance? That’s an eternal question for security policy think tank types who are always on the lookout for the next inflection point. Indeed, a new report due out Wednesday from the Washington, D.C.-based Center for a New American Security (CNAS) sees the bilateral relationship at a — surprise, surprise — “turning point…amid a strategic environment of unprecedented complexity.” Yet the report also points out the half-century old U.S. Japan Mutual Security Treaty has had a solid track record of helping to keep the peace in the Asia-Pacific region. Among the more provocative suggestions for policymakers: consider pulling back some forward stationed U.S. military forces in Japan and moving them as far away as Guam or Hawaii.
    The report, an advance copy of which was obtained by The Wall Street Journal, provides an overview of challenges facing the alliance timed to coincide with the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting of regional leaders in Yokohama next month. It specifies several areas in need of “revitalization,” including greater interoperability of the two countries’ intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) programs. It also bluntly calls on Japan to create a National Security Council and to boost its arsenal by adding drones (“long-haul, unmanned aerial vehicles”), diesel attack submarines and naval mines. And the report suggests four core options for the U.S. military base presence in Japan:
    1.) Retain and Harden: Maintain current base structure and bolster their potency by deploying more missile defenses and “pouring additional concrete on shelters and burying facilities.”
    2.) Fortify Guam: Shift more American military personnel from Japan to the island of Guam while building up its air and naval facilities.
    3.) Disperse: Spread the U.S. military footprint across more of Oceania by redeploying forces from Japan and improve access to military installations in Southeast Asia.
    4.) Pullback to Hawaii: Move some U.S. forces in Japan to Hawaii and upgrade their capability to redeploy quickly during a regional crisis.
    The CNAS predicts that it is “likely” the U.S. will implement at least some of these policy options in the future to upgrade their effectiveness and mollify localized opposition to large the U.S. military presence in Okinawa. This comes against a backdrop of a tense standoff between China and Japan recently over uninhabited but strategic islands off the southern tip of Okinawa. That diplomatic tiff has rekindled concerns in Tokyo and Washington, D.C. about the regional balance of power in light of China’s new willingness to throw its weight around. While the report refrains from embracing a policy of containment vis-à-vis Beijing, it does encourage the U.S. and Japan to begin preparations to “counter China’s anti-access and area-denial strategy.” The report was authored by a trio of Asia-Pacific security experts, including Mr. Patrick Cronin, a former director at the National Defense University and senior official at the U.S. Agency for International Development.
    On a less militant (and more colorful) note, the think tank report asks both countries to work towards fostering a “blue revolution” to cope with water scarcity, a “green alliance” to deal with natural resource dependence and a “green Okinawa” policy promoting local economic development. To accomplish all of that, CNAS wants to see a so-called “Track 1.5” series of ongoing dialogues for both government and private sector officials in the U.S. and Japan. But the unmistakable undercurrent of the report seems to say: actions speak louder than words, at least on the high seas.

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  • jtabeb
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    I've flown both, (I like having one, just in case)

    KC-10A and T-6A, T-37B

    Leave a comment:

  • bill
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

    and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?
    Who's flag did they burn?
    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...10027#poststop

    7011 is at an all time low!
    That is if you purchased yen a few years ago.
    http://www.google.com/finance?q=TYO:7011

    they are part of the core.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaibatsu


    Now lets get to the excitement.
    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...1c034f3d0b759c
    Japan, worried by China, may boost submarine fleet
    (AP) – 10 hours ago
    TOKYO (AP) — Japan may increase the size of its submarine fleet, officials said, as concerns rise that the expansion of the Chinese navy is tipping the regional balance of power.
    The Defense Ministry said a bigger submarine fleet is under consideration, with a firm proposal likely to come as early as December. Officials who spoke to The Associated Press on Tuesday refused to give further details because the plan has not yet been formally tabled.
    According to Japanese media reports, the number of submarines would be increased from 16 to 22 over the next four years, a substantial rise that could generate concern from neighboring China.
    Though well outnumbered by the Chinese — who now have about 60 subs — the Japanese navy's submarine fleet is significantly augmented by U.S. subs deployed throughout the region. Japanese subs are generally believed to be better equipped than many of the Chinese vessels and are hard to detect.
    http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T101024002067.htm
    Oct. 25, 2010
    Japan, U.S. to up talks on China threat / Rapid buildup of military main concern

    Satoshi Ogawa / Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent
    WASHINGTON--Japan and the United States will beef up strategic consultations to cope with China's rapid military buildup, especially the strengthening of its maritime might, according to Japanese and U.S. diplomatic sources.
    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2010/...7251287940846/
    TOKYO, Oct. 24 (UPI) -- Japanese politicians are reportedly leaning toward easing the nation's ban on weapons exports, sources told a newspaper.
    The Yomiuri Shimbun Sunday said a panel of the Democratic Party of Japan had concluded that allowing arms exports would both boost Japanese defense contractors
    http://www.speroforum.com/site/artic...ry+cooperation
    10-25-2010
    Tokyo – India and Japan want to increase trade and develop closer strategic and military ties to counter Chinese military expansion. A number of agreements are expected to be announced at the end of a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Japanese counterpart, Naoto Kan, today in Tokyo.
    Singh is on an official visit to Japan until tomorrow accompanied by a large delegation that includes top government officials and Indian business leaders. For him, an India-Japan strategic and global partnership is “a factor of peace, prosperity and stability in Asia and the world.”
    http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-50097320100713
    Tue Jul 13, 2010 11:01pm IST
    TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's largest business lobby called on Tuesday for restrictions on weapons exports to be eased to allow defence contractors to take part in international research and development projects and stay competitive.
    The proposal by Nippon Keidanren comes as the government, facing an unpredictable North Korea and rising China, prepares the latest defence policy outline and mid-term defence equipment procurement plan for issue by the end of the year.
    "As defence gear becomes sophisticated and development costs grow, more and more fighter jets and other equipment are being developed by international consortia," Nippon Keidanren said in its proposal released on Tuesday.
    "But the three principles are prohibiting Japan from joining international joint development, putting the country in the state of technological isolation."
    Japan in 1967 drew up "three principles" on arms exports, banning sales to countries with communist governments or that are involved in international conflicts or subject to United Nations sanctions.
    But the rules eventually became almost a blanket ban on arms exports and on the development and production of weapons with countries other than the United States.
    That prohibits the nation's defence industry from joining multinational projects such as Lockheed Martin-led(LMT.N) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and makes it difficult for Japanese defence contractors such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries(7011.T) to drive down costs and keep up with cutting-edge arms technologies. (Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka, editing by Andrew Marshall)

    Leave a comment:

  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by oddlots View Post
    Thanks I thought that would be complicated enough to confuse her but she's going with "You are an idiot."
    If she wants to study the subject, Hysteresis, where movement lags behind the application of a force, (a very good example being a long propeller shaft on a boat with slightly tight bearings will have the engine running at a constant speed and the propeller stop starting stop starting at regular intervals), then this will be a great place to start. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hysteresis

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  • oddlots
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    +1

    Nicely put. The challenge is really enormous on both sides of the, largely, chinese-us equation.

    One of the thoughts I had was that China should nationalise it's health service. One of the main reasons I've seen sighted for the high savings rate is future health costs. Freeing some of those savings to develop internal demand might be a good shock absorber, especially in the inevitable event of an asset-price crash.

    On our side of the divide it's a less palatable menu. The thing that most depresses me about the situation is we seem to still be headed in the wrong direction at an accelerating pace. It's a system that is the exact opposite to what markets are meant to deliver (what's the opposite of a meritocracy?) I think monetary reform is a bridge too far. Far more doable to my view is a movement for state chartered banks in the mold of North Dakota's. Starve FIRE (they've basically already incinerated everyone's pensions anyway.) I really think these interests need to be frightened by the wrath of the people expressed through indictments and the construction of another form of banking in comparison with which they will be found wanting.

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  • oddlots
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Thanks I thought that would be complicated enough to confuse her but she's going with "You are an idiot."

    Leave a comment:

  • Polish_Silver
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by oddlots View Post
    If anyone on the board has a good way to explain this to my wife I'm all ears.
    The experiment shows the difference between static friction and dynamic friction. While the block is at rest, it has a strong static friction against the table. Thus, the force in the bungee can be quite high before
    the block starts moving.
    When the bungee tension becomes slightly greater than static friction, the block starts to move. Now the sliding/dynamic friction is much lower, so the brick quickly accelerates until striking the central banker.

    Leave a comment:

  • Chris Coles
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by goadam1 View Post
    It feels like KA-poom has become focused on a disorderly unraveling of Chinese/us mad. It's seems like a valid scenario but one with many variables.
    That is certainly a very prescient statement; but, anyone who has experience of the process of job creation from scratch, (idea pre-startup), will be also able to confirm the process has almost infinite variables. If it can go wrong, it will go wrong.... but even then, having overcome all natural obstacles; we are faced with an economic system that is totally inadequate for the job in hand, the creation of a free nation of prosperous citizens.

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  • goadam1
    replied
    Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

    It feels like KA-poom has become focused on a disorderly unraveling of Chinese/us mad. It's seems like a valid scenario but one with many variables.

    Leave a comment:

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