China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers - Eric Janszen

[raja]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?

We also live in a world of inadequate supply. Peak: oil, food, clement weather, wealth.

I would think about how much money can be diverted into military spending without further impoverishing the people and driving them to greater heights of fury.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

+1 (Don't forget the best part, NO EJECTION SEAT!)

Are you permitted to tell us which you fly? With or without?

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?

This is the nub of the matter in hand. What we have observed, over the last few decades, (this is not a sudden event, but instead, a VERY long term decline), is the general prosperity of the wider nation, in almost every Western nation, has been drawn down to the bare minimums. All of the prosperity has been drawn into the FIRE economy. We see this very clearly with the success of the likes of Walmart selling ever cheaper mostly Chinese manufactured general merchandise to the poor..... now including much of what we once described as the "Middle Class". But we once designed and manufactured all this general merchandise ourselves. Employing the wider population in the process and at much greater levels of prosperity for the wider nation.

To describe our only option is to produce military equipment is a complete failure to recognise the fallacy of the FIRE economy. We have right under our noses the potential to re-create that original prosperity by re-capitalising the grass roots of the Western nations. By setting them the challenge to undo all the ridiculous stupidities of the FIRE economy.

Turning to China; they have a vast, untapped internal market. But to address that untapped market, they have to also recognise the stupidity of the Western FIRE economic model. They have been drawn into enslaving their own population to produce ever cheaper merchandise for the likes of the Walmarts of the Western economy.

Both sides, BOTH sides; must change direction.

The answer is the improve the prosperity of the bottom 50% of the people. The greater the prosperity at the grass roots of society, the greater the capacity to buy their own production.... of EVERYTHING.... NOT just armaments.

It was this understanding, gained from being the bright useful inventor who was continuously refused investment that brought me to understand what is wrong... it is not militaristic endeavour that draws us down, it is a complete failure to see the need to capitalise a free nation to produce what THEY themselves need.

The only answer is to set about re-capitalising the bottom segments of each and every nation. Get everyone back into productive employment... by ANY means that is legal.

But to be able to do that all the Central Bankers will have to throw away the one thing they see as their reason for existence; to control the economy to keep wages down by adjusting interest rates. All they in fact achieved was to constantly drain away the vitality, the unseen prosperity of their respective peoples. It is the central bankers that have been drawn into feudalising their nations on behalf of the largest companies.

All we need is access to the capital to invest into new jobs. But they will be much more prosperous new jobs paying better wages. Today, wages here in the UK are insufficient to permit the lowest quartile of employees from living even a subsistence life, in the process requiring government to pay out enormous sums of borrowed money to pay then further monies in the form of welfare to permit them to survive.

This is utter stupidity. The utterly stupid unrecognised idiocy of the FIRE economic model.

All we need is access to prosperity in the form of available equity capital to permit us to create the jobs we need.

[jtabeb]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

+1 (Don't forget the best part, NO EJECTION SEAT!)

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Don't forget about the easily forgotten Hainan incident...

Lt. Shane Osborn is a hero of the very best calibre; piloting an aircraft that was, by all accounts, right on the very edge of flyable, right aileron fully vertical, one propeller severely damaged and impossible to feather, nose radome completely smashed off the aircraft, landing with full right aileron, no trim, no airspeed indicator, nor altitude indicator and at 200mph. Magic, pure magic!!!

[goadam1]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

But what does a crash look like in the Chinese system?

[goadam1]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

"...torched a Japanese flag...." not their own chinese flag. a japanese flag.

Exciting the crowd, getting people ginned up on nationalism is an old trope. It doesn't mean you are preparing them for war. You just need to keep the crowd in a war mindset.

What keeps people in line here. Permanent war and fake tribal conflicts in our entertainment and political media.

[oddlots]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

I was doubtful of your basic premise EJ until I tried it. Indeed the breeze block does practically fly across the table as you said. I'm short two teeth, have a nasty black eye and fat lip. But the insight: priceless.

If anyone on the board has a good way to explain this to my wife I'm all ears.

[LargoWinch]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

We have long believed that the Chinese government, even more than most governments, will crank up the nationalism in the event of an economic crisis, just as they did when the US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Ten years later, here is China's official position:

"During interviews, some Chinese experts believe that objectively, the bombing of the Chinese embassy offered China an opportunity to reflect and transform. On the one hand, the general public has realized that economic construction is the basis on which the enhancement of the overall national strength rests. On the other hand, a strong belief has formed among the general public that only strong military power and an advanced national defense system can fundamentally protect and safeguard the results of economic construction."

10th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade

Don't forget about the easily forgotten Hainan incident...

[jtabeb]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Just for laughs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...rod-china.html

G-20 Vows to Avoid Weakening Currencies as Leaders Prepare to Prod China

By Simon Kennedy and Shamim Adam - Oct 24, 2010 2:04 PM CT

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Strategists said the decisions taken in Gyeongju were unlikely to mark an end to the dollar’s recent slide or trigger a quicker rise in the yuan. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg



Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers vowed to avoid weakening currencies to lift exports, leaving leaders to flesh out new ways of prodding fellow member China to allow faster gains in the yuan.
Officials ended talks in South Korea on Oct. 23 pledging to refrain from “competitive devaluation” and to let markets set foreign-exchange values more as they sought to calm fears that they risk a trade war by using cheaper currencies to spur growth. They called for more sustainable current-account gaps without embracing a U.S. proposal for targets, an initiative aimed at making a yuan advance more palatable to China.

[jpatter666]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?

Ironically, just as the US and China joined forces (unofficially) against the USSR, the US and Russia could (again unofficially) join forces against China.

Siberia is very empty and a resource treasure box. And there *is* enough of a historical basis for China claiming those lands.

[jk]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

We have long believed that the Chinese government, even more than most governments, will crank up the nationalism in the event of an economic crisis, just as they did when the US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Ten years later, here is China's official position:

"During interviews, some Chinese experts believe that objectively, the bombing of the Chinese embassy offered China an opportunity to reflect and transform. On the one hand, the general public has realized that economic construction is the basis on which the enhancement of the overall national strength rests. On the other hand, a strong belief has formed among the general public that only strong military power and an advanced national defense system can fundamentally protect and safeguard the results of economic construction."

10th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade

putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?

[FRED]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

ej is predicting a chinese crash. if the u.s. consumer is tapped out and can no longer import chinese goods, and europe is going into the dumper, how will the chinese, with its millions of excess 20-30 year old males, react to growing unemployment and social unrest? have more rock concerts? or a military push and increased nationalism?

We have long believed that the Chinese government, even more than most governments, will crank up the nationalism in the event of an economic crisis, just as they did when the US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Ten years later, here is China's official position:

"During interviews, some Chinese experts believe that objectively, the bombing of the Chinese embassy offered China an opportunity to reflect and transform. On the one hand, the general public has realized that economic construction is the basis on which the enhancement of the overall national strength rests. On the other hand, a strong belief has formed among the general public that only strong military power and an advanced national defense system can fundamentally protect and safeguard the results of economic construction."

10th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade

[jk]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

"...torched a Japanese flag...." not their own chinese flag. a japanese flag.

ej is predicting a chinese crash. if the u.s. consumer is tapped out and can no longer import chinese goods, and europe is going into the dumper, how will the chinese, with its millions of excess 20-30 year old males, react to growing unemployment and social unrest? have more rock concerts? or a military push and increased nationalism?

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

"...torched a Japanese flag...." not their own chinese flag. a japanese flag.

MY gosh! Freedom of expression..... change we will have to believe is occurring right in front of our eyes....