China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers - Eric Janszen

[vt]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

A lot of wealthy Chinese are leaving China or planning to to so, with many coming here. EJ, in the two years since this article what do you see for China now. and how does that fit in to the big picture?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101345275


Well it hasn't been a crash, but more like a 3 year erosion:

• [*=center]FXI

See also: FXI stock quote, Stock Charts data entry page

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Read more:http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fxi/sto...#ixzz2qgfrs0xO

[LargoWinch]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Thank you Chris; good points.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

I think they are already doing this in China by prohibiting foreign companies from doing business with local governments.

I am sure you are correct. Everyone with a forward thinking ability will know, for certain, that we cannot continue on the path we have all followed for decades. In which case the more new ways tried, the better. Remember, innovation is a process of try, fail, and try again. No one idea will fit the bill, everyone will have to accept failure in one form or another. But by trying, many will succeed and others can then follow.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Chris, I would appreciate your opinion on the "The Venus Project".

When I was a child my father used to create elaborate designs for futuristic building projects; they were always elaborate and impossible to attain. When you look at the detail with The Venus Project, all you see is the elaborate vision of a "visionary". I am sorry, but that sort of thing does not appeal to me. Yes, a great idea, but a single idea, and that is, to my way of thinking, it's fatal flaw.

I am much more interested in millions of separate individuals; setting their imaginations to work for themselves, within their own abilities, resources and aspirations. So that, instead of a single vision, they all get the chance to create their own vision. Instead of one idea, millions of ideas. In that way, we sow a seed bed of innovation and let the best ideas reach fruition.

No one will know what will result, other than by letting them try out their chance to achieve something better; in a very real sense, to re-establish "creative destruction", not in a negative way, but positively. Let the human race get back to the many trying something new; rather than being trammelled by one single vision.

[touchring]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Economics is nothing to do with politics at the levels I am proposing, any political system has the capacity to see the advantages of a more prosperous grass roots of their respective nations.

My proposals for The Capital Spillway Trust are non political; they are entirely based upon the prospect of a distribution of equity capital into simple, but formal, business structures; where the rules work against wrongdoing on the part of the recipients of the equity capital and to the favour of the local community. They will work in any nation and always in the same way.

I think they are already doing this in China by prohibiting foreign companies from doing business with local governments.

[LargoWinch]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Economics is nothing to do with politics at the levels I am proposing, any political system has the capacity to see the advantages of a more prosperous grass roots of their respective nations.

My proposals for The Capital Spillway Trust are non political; they are entirely based upon the prospect of a distribution of equity capital into simple, but formal, business structures; where the rules work against wrongdoing on the part of the recipients of the equity capital and to the favour of the local community. They will work in any nation and always in the same way.

Chris, I would appreciate your opinion on the "The Venus Project".

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Economics is nothing to do with politics at the levels I am proposing, any political system has the capacity to see the advantages of a more prosperous grass roots of their respective nations.

My proposals for The Capital Spillway Trust are non political; they are entirely based upon the prospect of a distribution of equity capital into simple, but formal, business structures; where the rules work against wrongdoing on the part of the recipients of the equity capital and to the favour of the local community. They will work in any nation and always in the same way.

[touchring]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

The economic model that has dominated the planet for the last five or six decades has thrown up some quite remarkable developments; but ended with us all living in a distinctly medieval feudal economy where money is power.

But what the vast majority want is to live in a small, friendly, local community; where their efforts combine to create a successful group of homes for people to live in and bring up a family, where employment is centred upon their personal skills and they, (and the products they create), are appreciated as a functioning member of their local community. In such an environment, most people will agree with your point of view.

Economic reforms are not sustainable unless there is political reform. Take the example of Libya, the Libyans are rich (2 million barrels a day and only 5 million people), they live a good life. Gaddafi's socialist political system gave free education and health care to Libyans I heard.

This is in stark contrast to America, most expensive health care and most expensive education in the entire world. Why haven't Americans rebelled?

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

The economic model that has dominated the planet for the last five or six decades has thrown up some quite remarkable developments; but ended with us all living in a distinctly medieval feudal economy where money is power.

But what the vast majority want is to live in a small, friendly, local community; where their efforts combine to create a successful group of homes for people to live in and bring up a family, where employment is centred upon their personal skills and they, (and the products they create), are appreciated as a functioning member of their local community. In such an environment, most people will agree with your point of view.

[touchring]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Your comment is correct. But I am saying that the local communities are the best people to step forward to bring the required changes needed to bring back long term stability. All the points you make are direct evidence of the need to bring forward new thinking.

You suggest the need for a catastrophe; I am saying that the people can do what is needed; through the application of some very simple rules for local community investment.

The choice is very simple, wait for catastrophe, or take a very simple step forward into new thinking and try something else instead.

Are you talking about this kind of community investment?

http://www.peopleforum.cn/viewthread.php?tid=7893

By the way, the above example, borders on insanity.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

China has ceased being a Confucian society since the Cultural revolution.

China is now even more individualistic society than Western societies. Everyone is trying to scam the other person with no consideration whatsoever to the community. From fake milk to fake eggs to fake oil - using paraffin for cooking oil.

There maybe change, but not without a catastrophic crisis to catalyze such a change.

Your comment is correct. But I am saying that the local communities are the best people to step forward to bring the required changes needed to bring back long term stability. All the points you make are direct evidence of the need to bring forward new thinking.

You suggest the need for a catastrophe; I am saying that the people can do what is needed; through the application of some very simple rules for local community investment.

The choice is very simple, wait for catastrophe, or take a very simple step forward into new thinking and try something else instead.

[touchring]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

That Confucian principles will prevail.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confucius
http://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=e...0China&f=false

In which case, the best way forward, (not just in China, but elsewhere), is to place the change into the hands of the grass roots.

China has ceased being a Confucian society since the Cultural revolution.

China is now even more individualistic society than Western societies. Everyone is trying to scam the other person with no consideration whatsoever to the community. From fake milk to fake eggs to fake oil - using paraffin for cooking oil.

There maybe change, but not without a catastrophic crisis to catalyze such a change.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

This is not so easy, especially for SME, if you consider the amount of lawlessness with respect to corporate governance, investors are not guaranteed of their rights.

There had been a recent case of a Chinese company listed in the Singapore stock exchange, who had a fire in their finance department office before the auditors came. ;)

There is no doubt that there are substantial problems with governance in China, but I do not believe that the people leading the Chinese financial institutions and who have driven their economy to where it is today, believe they can continue to turn their collective backs to corruption and corporate malfeasance. Instead, I believe they need a way forward that will, slowly, steadily, over time, change the way business is done. That Confucian principles will prevail.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confucius
http://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=e...0China&f=false

In which case, the best way forward, (not just in China, but elsewhere), is to place the change into the hands of the grass roots.

Let the local communities take a direct interest in their long term prosperity.

The basic principles I have expounded in my own papers on job creation place the responsibility for success firmly upon the job creator who in turn, is directly under the supervision of their own local community. The two have to work together to make the whole system of job creation work.

Again, I am only defining rules for investment into very small, micro businesses, of no more than 8 to 10 employees. That the rules will create a vast raft of very small success stories spread right across the nation, that will inspire everyone surrounding them to take an interest in their success. That from that starting point, local community job creation is a local community function; linking local savings to local employment.

That there must be a better way forward than that we are using today.

[touchring]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

What is never mentioned in any such analysis is the difference between lending and using equity capital to fund the expansion of the economy. Each time we meet a roadblock, everyone always turns to adjusting lending, rather than finding ways to return to good old fashioned equity capital.

China has to learn the usefulness of equity capital, invested at arms length, on free enterprise terms, for the long term development of their economy.

They should read this and then come and talk. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...Trust+Response

This is not so easy, especially for SME, if you consider the amount of lawlessness with respect to corporate governance, investors are not guaranteed of their rights.

There had been a recent case of a Chinese company listed in the Singapore stock exchange, who had a fire in their finance department office before the auditors came. ;)

[bart]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Thanks Raz... and a bonus chart, albeit on the wrong thread (I can't be too easy ;-) ), showing some of what EJ is looking at in my opinion on silver - as in history does rhyme: