Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

[metalman]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Depends how your taxes are used for I guess...

Now back to Oligopoly!

on second thought, if someone's figured out a way around the tax regime, power to them. bring on the mlps!

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

mlps may be a good investment... but are they moral?

Depends how your taxes are used for I guess...

Now back to Oligopoly!

[metalman]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Chris,

I recently sold some, not a lot, of gold to diversify into one of these two start-ups.

gold off 2% since then?

[metalman]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_b...johnston-.html

Quick read on MLP and taxes. This chart summarizes the differences between corps, partnerships, and MLPs

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3408[/ATTACH]

mlps may be a good investment... but are they moral?

[EricPhan]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_b...johnston-.html

Quick read on MLP and taxes. This chart summarizes the differences between corps, partnerships, and MLPs

6a00d8341c4eab53ef0133f1848501970b-800wi.jpg

[WDCRob]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Entrepreneurs as the undervalued asset class. Makes perfect sense. Please do keep us posted EJ, and I hope you're able to get that limit down under $250k.

[icm63]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Let me guess Spartacus, you retired at 25, worth millions from your trading fortune, cause your always right!

I never defended GANN or the Elliot wave approach, BUT I have seen experts in their field do just fine ! Then again I have seen someone do real well on just moving average cross overs, nothing more:
Ref: The magic of moving avergaes by Scot Lowery (Traders Press)

[Spartacus]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Elliot wave and GANN only work when it fits, sometimes it does and sometimes it does not.

yeah, so does a flipped coin. Pay me & I'll make predictions for you .. unlike Prechter & Gann, and much better than both combined, I'll be right 50% of the time.

PS and FYI, with that attitude you're ripe to be picked clean by a good con artist.

[icm63]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

The most prominent EW analyst (Prechter) is wrong about gold since 2001. EW is useless.

Every analyst gets a trade wrong.

Did you see EJ pick the Current $USD strength:NOPE!
Did you see Prechter pick strength in the $USD recently : YES!

http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/...us-dollar/1946


Elliot wave and GANN only work when it fits, sometimes it does and sometimes it does not.

Just keep an eye on the higher highs and higher lows, etc...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

EJ,
Thank you in advance for sharing what you can when you can. In the meantime, I am simply using USO as a start to diversification from pure cash/gold, and eagerly await additional ideas to consider. The continuing release of information on the GoM geyser (see http://globalwarming.house.gov/media...ntent#oilspill ) suggests bad things can still happen in the current situation, such as tip over of the blowout preventer or subsidence of the seafloor in that area due to erosion under the seafloor, all pointing to a potentially more restrictive drilling future in the U.S.-controlled portion of the GoM and consequent reduction in new supply.

RTQ, I would like to point out that spot Crude Oil hit a low of $30.28 pb on Dec. 28, 2008. Based on today's spot price for Crude Oil of $77.92 this represents an increase of 157.3%.

Meanwhile, USO is up only 7.1% over that period!, while DBO did much better with an increase of 30.0% over the same time frame. Of course even DBO's performance is disappointing considering the increase in the spot price of Crude Oil.

[RTQ]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

EJ,
Thank you in advance for sharing what you can when you can. In the meantime, I am simply using USO as a start to diversification from pure cash/gold, and eagerly await additional ideas to consider. The continuing release of information on the GoM geyser (see http://globalwarming.house.gov/media...ntent#oilspill ) suggests bad things can still happen in the current situation, such as tip over of the blowout preventer or subsidence of the seafloor in that area due to erosion under the seafloor, all pointing to a potentially more restrictive drilling future in the U.S.-controlled portion of the GoM and consequent reduction in new supply.

[D-Mack]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Maybe when the USMNT will face France in the final. lol


Why should we believe the numbers for the US amount of gold ? Who reports it and who audits it ?


Lokks like Pritchard is also reading itulip.

Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels

...
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
..

The World Gold Council said on Friday that the central banks of Russia, the Philippines, Kazakhstan and Venezuela have been buying gold, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary authority has "restated" its reserves upwards from 143m to 323m tonnes. If there is any theme to the bullion rush, it is fear that the global currency system is unravelling. Or, put another way, gold itself is reclaiming its historic role as the ultimate safe haven and benchmark currency.
..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-unravels.html

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

There are a thousand sites around that offer opinions on stocks, bonds, commodities and other assets, but where is the accountability? I want to know that the person giving an opinion has a personal stake in the outcome of acting on that opinion. That is the standard that iTulip has maintained here for 12 years. The positions in gold, Treasuries, savings bonds and CDs that I have been in for nearly a decade and have outperformed stocks were easily purchased by anyone. The assets that I am buying now to diversify out of Treasuries in particular cannot. The quandary is how to maintain the same level of accountability we have kept for 12 years without abandoning many of our highly valued members along the way?

You can already see a divergence occurring. As we begin to talk more about positions in accounts with $250,000 minimums, many readers are legitimately going to start to ask, "How is this relevant to me? Sell Treasuries and buy what?"

But I think I may have come up with a creative solution to a problem that has occupied my these past several months. I can't divulge it here yet but we've gotten it past the SEC lawyers and I'm cautiously optimistic that it will work out. Stay tuned. Thank you for your support.

Thank you EJ and iTulip for looking after us. After all, things are really not easy in the Asylum Economy.

I wonder if this new direction will affect iTulip's previous inclination of "moving into oil"? It was previously stated that up to 20% of the current cash allocation would be moved into this asset class...

Also, and this is perhaps more related to my own personal situation, is the fact that virtually all my cash holdings are in retirement accounts called RRSPs (similar to a 401(k)), to maximize the after-tax returns of the recommended portfolio. Now, how can an investor located outside the US can invest into "private investments" let alone using retirement funds, seems like mission impossible.

I would lastly point out that even if I am prevented from participating into EJ's latest and greatest idea, a macro update once in a while coupled with the good folks around here is more than enough for me to stick around until they shut down the internet and iTulip with it (or vice versa). As I said before, my education funds previously allocated to a Master in Financial Engineering in London, UK at an Ivey-league school (offer which I declined in 2007) is still very much intact (actually grew quite a bit thanks to iTulip and EJ) and is now fully dedicated to a self-learning journey starting here.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

It is today, a criminal offence, (not a slap on the wrist, but you face jail), to give any form of investment advice unless you are certified under the rule structure of the FIRE economy. Moreover, the rules are now deeply embedded into every layer of the industry and are immensely complicated.

Dang -- what has the corptocracy not f'd up?

Thanks for spelling this out, Chris.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

EJ, everyone,

being across the pond, I have had to catch up with the conversation. I start here, rather than with the earlier post by EJ as it is clear to me that some of you do not fully understand the depth of the problems facing anyone with any form of idea related to new investment. What has happened is that the FIRE industry, over a period of some decades, (this is not a recent thing), has created an industrial rule structure for what one might describe here in the UK as the Financial Services Industry, but what is generally described, here on iTulip, as the FIRE economy. The rules absolutely preclude any individual investment advice not originating from an industry insider acting under the rules set out by the FIRE economy.

It is today, a criminal offence, (not a slap on the wrist, but you face jail), to give any form of investment advice unless you are certified under the rule structure of the FIRE economy. Moreover, the rules are now deeply embedded into every layer of the industry and are immensely complicated. Some references will help you:

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/E...lation_ch3.pdf

http://eu.techcrunch.com/2010/04/25/...ets-stop-them/

http://blog.taragana.com/business/20...ulation-62463/

http://www.edhec-risk.com/performanc..._analysis/IAMA

And those are just some headlines. To get a better view, try these:

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/Pages/handbook/index.shtml

On the face of it, at first sight one can be forgiven for feeling the existing system is set up to help; but when one dives into the depths of the regulations, you will keep coming up against strong buffers to prevent investment at the grass roots of any local community. The FIRE economy has created a monster set of rules entirely centred upon their maintaining complete control of the investment mechanisms that have, IMHO, created a feudal mercantile economy that serves no one BUT the FIRE economy. They centre that control on the one message that seems so fair and reasonable, prevention of loss of the investment; prevention of failure....sic!

But that message suits a bank that lends money into a local community that it not only requires to be refunded, it also requires more in the shape of interest on the loan to also be returned to the bank. Thus bank lending automatically drains prosperity from the local economy into the bank's economy. Sound familiar?

Equity investment, on the other hand, is free money, freely invested, with no certainty of it being returned to the original investor. The more you invest with new equity into your local community, the greater the investment circulating within your local community; the greater the long term prosperity. All of you have been watching your local prosperity decline without understanding that the mechanism causing the decline is the very same one supposedly working so hard, under strong rules to prevent such loss.

My starting point for the debate is exactly opposite to EJ. For those that do not already know; I am the epitome of the classic struggling inventor. But in many ways we have both come to exactly the same conclusions; the existing system for investment of equity capital is not functional.

As I see it, the problem EJ faces, is that the rules may cause the sudden complete closure of iTulip, if he continues with the way the site and the membership is structured. So he is trying to find a way forward while still providing his excellent leadership through iTulip.

Returning to the wider debate about the system being not functional from my personal viewpoint, it is not only not functional; In my opinion, it absolutely prevents the ongoing establishment of a free society. That the present rules and investment mechanisms have created a feudal western civilisation, not unlike the worst examples from ancient history. By Western, I mean on both sides of the Pond. The US and Europe.

Again, on my part, I had opened the debate a long time ago with presentation of evidence to the Wilson Committee http://www.jstor.org/pss/2982159 Investigating the functioning of the City of London way back in the 1970's which got me a full page business page feature in Investors Chronicle, May 1978. Later still, after being placed into the position of applying for patents but being unable to raise the funding to even process the applications, let alone start the development of the embedded ideas, I had presented sufficient and very detailed evidence to the Bank of England during the early 1990's to get myself into direct correspondence with the then Governor, Eddie George and again, facing the same problems right now, with the present, Mervyn King.

To overcome the difficulties, as I see them; presented by the FIRE economy, I have created a new format for local communities to take up themselves without my input, (if that is their wish). The rules revolve around what I believe is a fundamental requirement IF, I stress the IF, you believe in the principle of freedom for the individual in a free society and their right to own the product of their own intellect; by stressing the notion of free enterprise. That the manager of the business owns the business; but accepts the consequent responsibilities to the investors. Rather than as now, the investor owns the business. I stress that seemingly insignificant detail, as I believe that insignificance lies at the heart of why we have become a feudal mercantile society.

I believe that the only way forward, when we come to the end of the rise in the price of Gold, is to invest equity under the rules of a free society, under free enterprise terms, back into our local communities.

The links to the full story can be taken from my personal web site www.chriscoles.com The free PDF book The Road Ahead from a Grass Roots Perspective contains in the first chapter, a short record of my own experience. The rest is up to each and every one of you. You need to understand that, my view is; the only way forward is each and every one of you has to take responsibility for your own communities. You cannot afterwards complain if you continue to lose prosperity to the FIRE economy, while turning your backs and expecting someone else to make your individual decisions.

What I have done is set out a draft set of rules based upon my own personal experience and have made a full public statement that they now belong to the ordinary people and that I will help anyone, in any way I can, if they wish to follow the path I have laid out.