Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Have to agree with Jay on this. It's a large body of data and analysis that in the end pulls together in one place threads and strands that most of us grasp, but which when swallowed in one sitting makes for depressing reading. Takes time to digest, then to process, then to mourn.

[metalman]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

My take on the lack of replies is partly based on the realization by most reading it that we, the plebs, are locked into the asylum. The answer to the test is not likely a smoldering wreck of an economy and war, but a smoldering wreck of an economy and massive government intervention and no place to hide. What else is there to say? None of the solutions are pretty, they are all based on government getting bigger and intervening in a way that helps only those in the know and hurt everyone else. They will suck the overcapacity out of the system one way or the other, so of course it will be attepted in a way that increases government power and "stability."

thinking on this... so few responses... my take...

ej's record is good... not only the 'no deflation' vision... how the system works... or even the calls... the 2001 gold market 'buy & hold' call... got us out of the stock market bubbles in mar. 2000 & dec. 2007... called the housing bubble start in 2002 & finish in 2006... etc... but the nuance... the way it 'feels'... the long term unemployment... the angry & confused populace... the backlash at banksters... the new regulations & fees & taxes... the crappy food at restaurants (high costs/low demand)... & the way we'll adapt/respond.

he said we'll find excuses for our new poverty... call it 'downshifting' or whatever....

O'Toole: While every ounce of common sense I have agrees, emotions run strong. Being involved in foreclosures I have met many people struggling beyond reason to pay for a house they can't afford because being a homeowner is "who they are,” and the alternative, renting, is a failure they simply cannot bear. I'd go so far as to say it’s a fate worse than death to some. I know this sounds dramatic but no matter how hard the upcoming lesson might be, I doubt it will be learned.
Janszen:Yes, you’re being too dramatic. One of my favorite positive features of U.S. culture is its creativity and adaptability. Remember the hippy movement? Its key features were anti-materialism and anti-consumerism. Flaunting wealth was very un-cool. The pursuit of wealth was considered boring and shallow. This was a convenient credo at a time when capitalism wasn’t doing very well and no one had much real income or credit to use to buy anything. Look for a new social movement that makes being downwardly mobile not only socially acceptable but cool, including renting versus owning. In fact, the movement may have already arrived in the concept of “downshifting” and will accelerate in the future. Many people will be forced to lower material expectations, but a whole social movement will support a move away from working 80 hours a week to pay the mortgage and I expect most people will be relieved, and will find themselves much happier with more time for friends, family and themselves. Psychologically the change won’t be as painful as you expect. As usual, you heard it here first!

April 12, 2006

ah, so many years ago... a million years ago when i think back to those days... the boom times.

so... when i read this, i swallow hard... because i think.. 'he's been right before... shit. it's going to get as bad as he says'

but i don't see that hopeful note any longer... but anger... the tone of the article... angry/pissed off. at who? at the perpetrators. he says... 'if it's foreseeable it's preventable'.

'look what our crazy oligarchs did to us! bastards!' :eek:

[Jay]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

My take on the lack of replies is partly based on the realization by most reading it that we, the plebs, are locked into the asylum. The answer to the test is not likely a smoldering wreck of an economy and war, but a smoldering wreck of an economy and massive government intervention and no place to hide. What else is there to say? None of the solutions are pretty, they are all based on government getting bigger and intervening in a way that helps only those in the know and hurt everyone else. They will suck the overcapacity out of the system one way or the other, so of course it will be attepted in a way that increases government power and "stability."

[LargoWinch]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

I think you like it so much because EJ says gold is not a bubble. I liked that part as well.

Yep, I always enjoy that part; as they say: I have a "vested" interest a bit greater than some but certainly less than jtabeb (the smart one). ;)

[LargoWinch]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Well Part - I was 7 pages - while Part II-IV were 57 pages

Yep, totals more than 20,000+ words folks.

That is what is considered a "book" nowadays.

[cjppjc]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Can you please explain cjppcj:

1) Why you believe this piece is weak?

and;

2) How is the number of replies is in any way shape or form related to the quality of an article?

1) Maybe I am wrong but it didn't seem to cover any new ground. That might be a hard thing to do. I would not know since all I do is make comments and no original material comes from me. I thought the word I (first person) was used alot. Also if I can spot the grammer and spelling mistakes that's bad.

2) Again, maybe I am wrong but in other pieces EJ has written the replies come fast and furious. Accolades and debate follow. I think this piece wont have as many replies as some of his better work.

I think you like it so much because EJ says gold is not a bubble. I liked that part as well.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Judging from the number of replies, I am probably not the only one who felt this piece was weak.

Can you please explain cjppcj:

1) Why you believe this piece is weak?

and;

2) How is the number of replies is in any way shape or form related to the quality of an article?

[Rajiv]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Well Part - I was 7 pages - while Part II-IV were 57 pages

[cjppjc]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Perhaps, though the response to Part II et al. has been somewhat stronger.

Well I wouldn't know. What is the reply count? It sure is short on part 1.

[ricket]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

I would gladly throw my hard earned money at you for pieces like this. But 5 weeks apart? Mannnnn, Im giving you customer feedback here, thats too far apart. I think you are a very smart dude, and iTulip has had a major impact on my life, but your business model could definitely be more efficient. You are definitely not capitalizing on the moneymaking potential that you are capable of. I guarantee you that if you posted more up-to-date analysis of breaking news events and how that relates to the investment thesis more often than every 5 weeks...you would be rolling in 10x more subscription dollars at this point...and could be buying a hell of a lot more gold with it.

[Chomsky]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Judging from the number of replies, I am probably not the only one who felt this piece was weak.

Perhaps, though the response to Part II et al. has been somewhat stronger.

[cjppjc]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Judging from the number of replies, I am probably not the only one who felt this piece was a little weak.

[due_indigence]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Well said. The USD is a political instrument at least as much as it is an economic one. Pax Americana amounts to propping up a vast network of shady (shakey) regimes. It's like a prisoner's dilemma welded to no honor among theives. The world's despots may hate the USD. But the alternative for them is worse. It's hard to imagine it not all ending badly. And what if someone big panics and races for the casino door?

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

I bet the treasury, the FED, and all the foreign equivalents have game-theoried this to death, and that's why the US authorities are not today acting as if they could do anything they wanted.

so in the end it may be true but no one can overtly act as if it is true.

Well said. Although - I'll bet that the US has a better W.O.P.R. than the other guys ...

wopr.jpg

[dummass]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

"There’s gold bubble alright, in ignorance about gold. Ninety-five percent of North Americans think of gold as a foreign land inhabited by bloodthirsty cannibals who drink lizard blood for breakfast. Of the five percent who aren’t afraid of it and think they understand it, only one percent actually does."

Yum-yum, delicious lizard blood.