Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

[FRED]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

What?!
Now we WONT have a collapsing dollar and hyperinflation?! Oh.My.God.
The consistency of the thesis here is non existent.
Any minute now you'll say we are experiencing deflation and pass that off as a long term view. Although I'm sure it will be called "the disinflationary environment we have long called for" to fool the more dim witted of your readers.
You are welcome to change your mind but some of your readers have also had a successful business background and can smell BS from a mile.

We have never, ever, even once forecast hyperinflation. High inflation, yes. Hyperinflation, never. Collapsing dollar? Never. Falling dollar, repeatedly since 1998.

Please stop with the "inflation is showing up in the quality of food and restaurant meals". This is the most bizarre assertion I have ever heard regarding inflation and it is also the opposite of what is occurring. Do you ever shop? Every store in the country is having the equivalent of a going out of business sale. The prices on literally every item I can think of is savagely discounted and I have yet to see ONE credible story of reduced quality from yourself or an Itulip member.

There is an entire thread documenting instances of this type of inflation here: Inflation snapshots: December 2009

[mickeyc21]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

What?!
Now we WONT have a collapsing dollar and hyperinflation?! Oh.My.God.
The consistency of the thesis here is non existent.
Any minute now you'll say we are experiencing deflation and pass that off as a long term view. Although I'm sure it will be called "the disinflationary environment we have long called for" to fool the more dim witted of your readers.
You are welcome to change your mind but some of your readers have also had a successful business background and can smell BS from a mile.
Please stop with the "inflation is showing up in the quality of food and restaurant meals". This is the most bizarre assertion I have ever heard regarding inflation and it is also the opposite of what is occurring. Do you ever shop? Every store in the country is having the equivalent of a going out of business sale. The prices on literally every item I can think of is savagely discounted and I have yet to see ONE credible story of reduced quality from yourself or an Itulip member.

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Spartacus - Just my two cents, but if you were any more arch in your (uncannily infallible!) identification of all the knee jerk time-wasters among us, you'd be bending over into a pretzel.

one must think about this article more than some others - knee jerk responses are less called for

And

some of the knee jerks, the high-volume (number of posts and length of posts) posters are no longer with us

They were not with me for a long time (blessed be the holy ignore-list) so I avoided much noise, but of course lots of people felt they had to rely to those, so I couldn't avoid the reply-noise.

but I think we're finally seeing the effect of their absence. Less noise. Some high volume responders like BART are definitely missed, though.

[Ann]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

one must think about this article more than some others - knee jerk responses are less called for

And

some of the knee jerks, the high-volume (number of posts and length of posts) posters are no longer with us

They were not with me for a long time (blessed be the holy ignore-list) so I avoided much noise, but of course lots of people felt they had to rely to those, so I couldn't avoid the reply-noise.

but I think we're finally seeing the effect of their absence. Less noise. Some high volume responders like BART are definitely missed, though.

The signal to noise ratio has improved.

The cast at iTulip is ever-changing, as are our troubled times.

This article is more pissy than any I recall reading.

Keep up the good fight.

[Spartacus]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

one must think about this article more than some others - knee jerk responses are less called for

And

some of the knee jerks, the high-volume (number of posts and length of posts) posters are no longer with us

They were not with me for a long time (blessed be the holy ignore-list) so I avoided much noise, but of course lots of people felt they had to reply to those, so I couldn't avoid the reply-noise.

but I think we're finally seeing the effect of their absence. Less noise. Some high volume responders like BART are definitely missed, though.

Judging from the number of replies, I am probably not the only one who felt this piece was a little weak.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

EJ,

The other countries lending the U.S. money may not want the chaos of an insolvent U.S. and all that would entail. But what if they are unable to buy U.S. debt?

Are there conditions under which these countries could not "hold noses and continue to buy U.S. debt"? What are those conditions and how likely are they to occur?

Certainly the U.K. is headed in that direction . . . .

Before I add my two halfpennyworth, may I make a small point about the numbers posting here. I live here in the UK. My weekends are often spent away from the internet, (There is more to life than a computer screen), and particularly this weekend with the information suddenly arriving via a friend about the YouTube/Davos challenge which I am about to address. I suspect that many others here on iTulip have the same difficulties and as such, I have only now, late afternoon Sunday, discovered EJ's latest submission. The iTulip membership is scattered right across the planet, so please, do not assume that the quality of the reaction to the submission is related to the numbers that post their own opinion. For the record, this is easily as good as anything else EJ has presented and, as someone else has already stated, the word count seems to be at the level of a book.

Turning to the UK; agree that it is very likely that the UK will be unable to purchase $US Treasuries for the very simple reason that they need the same thing here; but this time others to purchase our equivalent, £UK Gilts. Further, the law of unintended consequences may kick in with the traders who are having trouble getting paid their bonuses may turn on us and trash the Gilt market just to get their own back....

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

GOTH = GO To Hell plan

You've got your main plan. You've got contingency plans.

The GOTH plan is when all the other plans fail. Mine consists of 2 different other nations I can flee to and the gold coins to get me onto the last plane.

Ah, thanks. The GOTH plan. Smells like libertarian spirit.

Executed one of those almost two decades ago and laying the groundwork for the next round as we speak.

[raja]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

That’s why China, Japan, the UK, and all the others hold noses and continue to buy U.S. debt. If they don’t the U.S will experience both a liquidity and a solvency crisis, leading to a sovereign debt and currency crisis.

EJ,

The other countries lending the U.S. money may not want the chaos of an insolvent U.S. and all that would entail. But what if they are unable to buy U.S. debt?

Are there conditions under which these countries could not "hold noses and continue to buy U.S. debt"? What are those conditions and how likely are they to occur?

Certainly the U.K. is headed in that direction . . . .

[flintlock]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

I have a GOTH too!

[c1ue]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

GOTH? I've consulted a few sources, even going so far as the Glossary on SurvivalBlog (http://www.survivalblog.com/glossary.html), and still can't decipher. Could you kindly elaborate?

GOTH = GO To Hell plan

You've got your main plan. You've got contingency plans.

The GOTH plan is when all the other plans fail. Mine consists of 2 different other nations I can flee to and the gold coins to get me onto the last plane.

[Jay]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

EJ's insistence of a return to the mean, a return to sensibility, betrays a New England Yankee, Calvinistic idea of virtue, honesty, rewards and punishments. One should never take sin out of any economic model. And unless we elect a "reformer" (of god only knows what stripe), I wouldn't hold my breath.

I sense a throwing in of the towel as Gold becomes a fire plaything. It was the nature of how hard it was and the extra effort it took to own gold that made it special.

Gather around the fire as we burn the rule book. Huddle close as we tell tales of good men gone bad and bad men called heros.

Pay attention and be fleet of feet and you may survive the ride. But don't look for sense, fairness, honesty...

Gold as a fire plaything sure, I agree 100%. But I am also sure that they will have one hell of a time keeping the lid on forever. The next leg down and the resultant gold price will be telling. I am of the opinion that GLD is a major tool in keeping down the price. It is not possible for that enormous ETF to have that much gold backing. The futures market doesn't pass the sniff test to me.

The winners always write history. Good or bad, they end up heros in the books. When this chapter closes it will be the same. Who does the writing?

[goadam1]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

C(j),

I disagree, there is much that is new here.

Specifically the previous pronouncement listed the concept that the stock market would have a downward correction by the end of Q4 2009. From this article (though not necessarily the previous one) it seems clear to me that this concept was based on the idea that the US was going to violate a number of conditions which had caused currency crises in the past.

This update clarifies that the US has passed that possibility this time. Also that this successful negotiation of a possible currency crisis was not predictable.

This update also analyzes the present 'recovery' in the context of past recoveries to see if the fundamentally risky state the US is in will be upgraded/upgradeable to less risky.

The conclusion from what I can see (in this part as well as the iTulip Select part) is that it is not.

From my part - I do think it is new and useful.

The tone of course is (Hoo Shhhh Come to the Dark Side) now getting close to my own long held views of everything GOTH. And my long held GOTH plan may indeed need to be exercised.

EJ's insistence of a return to the mean, a return to sensibility, betrays a New England Yankee, Calvinistic idea of virtue, honesty, rewards and punishments. One should never take sin out of any economic model. And unless we elect a "reformer" (of god only knows what stripe), I wouldn't hold my breath.

I sense a throwing in of the towel as Gold becomes a fire plaything. It was the nature of how hard it was and the extra effort it took to own gold that made it special.

Gather around the fire as we burn the rule book. Huddle close as we tell tales of good men gone bad and bad men called heros.

Pay attention and be fleet of feet and you may survive the ride. But don't look for sense, fairness, honesty...

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

The tone of course is (Hoo Shhhh Come to the Dark Side) now getting close to my own long held views of everything GOTH. And my long held GOTH plan may indeed need to be exercised.

GOTH? I've consulted a few sources, even going so far as the Glossary on SurvivalBlog (http://www.survivalblog.com/glossary.html), and still can't decipher. Could you kindly elaborate?

[c1ue]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

1) Maybe I am wrong but it didn't seem to cover any new ground. That might be a hard thing to do. I would not know since all I do is make comments and no original material comes from me. I thought the word I (first person) was used alot. Also if I can spot the grammer and spelling mistakes that's bad.

2) Again, maybe I am wrong but in other pieces EJ has written the replies come fast and furious. Accolades and debate follow. I think this piece wont have as many replies as some of his better work.

I think you like it so much because EJ says gold is not a bubble. I liked that part as well.

C(j),

I disagree, there is much that is new here.

Specifically the previous pronouncement listed the concept that the stock market would have a downward correction by the end of Q4 2009. From this article (though not necessarily the previous one) it seems clear to me that this concept was based on the idea that the US was going to violate a number of conditions which had caused currency crises in the past.

This update clarifies that the US has passed that possibility this time. Also that this successful negotiation of a possible currency crisis was not predictable.

This update also analyzes the present 'recovery' in the context of past recoveries to see if the fundamentally risky state the US is in will be upgraded/upgradeable to less risky.

The conclusion from what I can see (in this part as well as the iTulip Select part) is that it is not.

From my part - I do think it is new and useful.

The tone of course is (Hoo Shhhh Come to the Dark Side) now getting close to my own long held views of everything GOTH. And my long held GOTH plan may indeed need to be exercised.

[ljaycox]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

OK, I found contact information I could not see before due to security settings on my machine> To the man who sent the PM--thank you, when i could get that i saw that my security was wrong for a user friendly experience on this site. It is fixed, and I can send things privately now.
I was trying to help--sorry for the misunderstanding, carry on.