Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

[Jay]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

Using truth and logic to deny your wife the things she wants most. Brilliant.

Spilled. My. Coffee.

[MarkL]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

But since U.S. consumer demand for imports fell off a cliff last year, we’re not worth the trouble.

Am I color blind or are the lines in the chart above, colored backwards?

Currently US Exports, BOPXGS, labeled in red, are increasing, over 50 years and then "fallling off a cliff", while US imports, BOPMGS, labeled in Blue have been declining over 50 years and now are jumping suddenly.

This chart is colored backwards, right?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

I can well understand EJ's reluctance to let anyone else take a look at the text prior to publishing on his own site. His passion and commitment are by far and away the better expressed in the raw text we get and what the heck? It is absolutely great material.

[metalman]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

Far be it for me to criticize, but there is a big difference in ease of comprehension with an unedited EJ post and his articles in Harper’s, and the Harvard Business Review.

In all fairness, editing is a professional endeavor. To comprehend the scope involved look at Vanity Fair’s editing of Sarah Palin’s Resignation: The Edited Version.

:p:phttp://www.vanityfair.com/politics/f...ch-edit-200907:p:p

And should we forget: Palin graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho in 1987. I’m not sure what this says about her, or our educational system, but any comments would lead us off topic.

:p:pMay I suggest starting with a basic grammar book and revisit the lowly comma.:p:p:p:p

feh... you see run on sentances, i see data density. when i copy & paste parts 1 & 2 into ms word i get > 9k words. a long harper's article is ~ 6k words... written for a non econ & finance audience with 1 or 2 charts for dummies. to cover the same ground in harpers... what... 15k - 20k words? also... i count 31 charts & graphs. maybe ej needs to cut that down to 2 or 3... keep it simple like a harper's article? :rolleyes:

[kartius919]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

I think he is referring to Fannie and Freddie and the US purchase of mortgage backed securities. Meaning, the US is the only lender to the real estate market.

[c1ue]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

Why will Japan or China for that matter be the ones with the whip? Won't we just inflate away their claims on us and tell them to spit?

If the US were not simultaneously borrowing more money for trade (currency account deficit = $380B in 2009, give or take) as well as borrowing more money to fund federal deficit spending ($1.6T or $2.2T in FY2009 depending on the estimate source), then the US could theoretically get away with a devaluation without major consequences.

As EJ notes - in the '80s the US was owed more than it owed, thus could dictate the terms.

Today the situation has changed; those nations holding US debt and continuing to borrow are the ones who could hold the whip hand.

Whether they do so and how thus is important to know.

To conclude the list of the usual suspects:

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

                       Jul     Jun     May     Apr     Mar     Feb     Jan     Dec     Nov     Oct     Sep     Aug     Jul
Country               2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008
                     ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------

China, Mainland       800.5   776.4   801.5   763.5   767.9   744.2   739.6   727.4   713.2   684.1   618.2   573.7   550.0
Japan                 724.5   711.8   677.2   685.9   686.7   661.9   634.8   626.0   625.2   629.6   617.5   630.3   637.6
United Kingdom 2/     220.0   214.0   163.8   152.8   128.2   129.1   123.9   130.9   132.4   133.2   112.8    82.5    66.1
Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/   193.2   189.7   194.8   204.7   213.6   189.1   176.6   197.5   205.0   203.5   169.3   132.9   117.6
Oil Exporters 3/      189.2   191.0   192.9   189.5   192.0   181.7   186.6   186.2   187.2   176.7   171.2   169.6   162.9
Brazil                138.1   139.8   127.1   126.0   126.6   130.8   133.5   127.0   136.1   141.0   148.3   152.6   154.8
Russia                118.0   119.9   124.5   137.0   138.4   130.1   119.6   116.4   108.0   110.8    99.6   104.2   104.0
Hong Kong             115.3    99.8    93.2    80.9    78.9    76.3    71.7    77.2    70.6    69.8    65.5    65.8    65.2
Luxembourg             92.2   104.3    96.3    97.6   106.1    92.3    87.2    97.4    94.4   100.8   104.7    90.4    89.7
Taiwan                 77.4    77.0    75.7    78.3    74.8    72.6    73.3    71.8    70.2    65.9    63.0    66.2    67.9
Switzerland            68.1    71.6    63.7    64.2    67.7    68.2    62.1    62.3    63.8    62.0    49.7    45.9    45.7
Germany                56.3    53.9    55.2    54.6    55.0    56.6    56.4    56.1    54.0    53.7    51.6    51.8    51.7
Singapore              42.4    40.8    39.6    39.7    39.1    39.4    38.3    40.8    38.8    34.0    32.2    31.9    32.8
India                  38.9    39.3    38.8    38.5    38.2    34.6    32.5    29.2    22.3    18.3    20.3    20.2    19.0
Ireland                38.6    46.3    50.6    49.7    54.7    54.5    50.0    54.3    41.3    35.1    32.9    18.9    16.9
Korea                  37.6    36.3    37.4    35.4    33.1    33.3    31.3    31.3    32.7    36.2    40.2    42.1    39.4
Thailand               31.4    29.7    26.8    28.5    26.0    39.7    37.2    32.4    33.9    33.6    27.4    30.4    30.6
Norway                 28.9    28.7    28.3    27.5    26.2    21.1    21.9    23.1    20.2    11.5    13.2     2.4     2.8
Mexico                 27.7    29.5    31.6    35.4    36.3    37.9    34.9    34.8    33.8    32.2    32.5    32.6    34.3
Turkey                 27.3    27.5    28.8    27.2    30.2    32.4    31.3    30.8    29.0    27.9    31.5    34.3    32.7
France                 24.6    26.0    25.9    30.6    27.1    16.8    17.9    16.8    18.4    20.5    19.3    21.2    17.1
Netherlands            21.5    18.9    16.3    16.5    17.6    16.1    16.8    15.4    15.6    15.7    15.6    16.9    17.8
Canada                 20.2    19.0    11.5    13.1    11.9    10.9     9.0     8.2    12.7    14.0    16.0    23.5    22.3
Egypt                  18.6    17.3    18.6    18.5    18.5    19.1    16.9    17.2    16.8    16.7    15.5    14.5    15.1
Italy                  17.4    16.8    16.8    16.2    16.6    16.5    15.6    16.0    15.9    15.3    11.6    12.9    11.0
Israel                 16.9    18.1    19.0    19.1    19.4    17.4    16.9    18.8    13.8    12.4     8.7     7.6     8.1
Sweden                 16.5    16.5    13.0    12.7    12.5    12.7    12.4    12.7    13.1    13.5    13.6    14.7    14.4
Belgium                15.7    15.7    15.7    15.8    15.4    14.5    15.5    15.9    15.3    15.8    15.4    14.8    15.0
Colombia               14.8    11.8    11.9    11.4    11.2    11.4    11.3    11.1    11.5    11.3     9.9     9.0     9.3
Chile                  13.5    14.3    14.7    15.1    15.5    15.2    15.2    15.2    15.1    15.4    13.4    13.0    13.6
Malaysia               11.9    11.7    12.3    11.6    10.6     8.4     8.0     8.4     8.8     8.6     9.4    10.1    10.5
Philippines            11.4    11.6    11.8    12.0    12.4    12.6    11.6    11.7    11.5    12.1    12.0    12.3    12.4
All Other             159.6   157.6   157.8   153.5   156.7   164.9   162.5   156.5   156.2   149.1   137.8   139.2   135.6
Grand Total          3428.0  3382.5  3293.2  3262.7  3265.3  3162.0  3072.2  3076.9  3036.6  2980.3  2800.1  2688.4  2624.0

[atlantafox]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

Please consider using myself or one of the other frequent iTulipers for proofreading; there are numerous grammatical and spelling issues, but of course these do not detract from the basic message.

Far be it for me to criticize, but there is a big difference in ease of comprehension with an unedited EJ post and his articles in Harper’s, and the Harvard Business Review.

In all fairness, editing is a professional endeavor. To comprehend the scope involved look at Vanity Fair’s editing of Sarah Palin’s Resignation: The Edited Version.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/f...ch-edit-200907

And should we forget: Palin graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho in 1987. I’m not sure what this says about her, or our educational system, but any comments would lead us off topic.

May I suggest starting with a basic grammar book and revisit the lowly comma.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

in Rogue economics : capitalism's new reality, ...

That link only seems to work if one is logged into some account at mylibrary.wollongong.nsw.gov.au.

Here's a link to what is I presume that same work on Amazon: Rogue Economics: Capitalism's New Reality by Loretta Napoleoni.

[Stroebel]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

I greatly appreciate the intellectual honesty embraced by itulip. Economic forecasting, and especially stock market forecasting, is a tricky, treacherous business.

Once again, you (me too) have underestimated the ability of USA Inc. and Wall Street to reflate. You're still betting that this time really is different. You are willing to back up your bet with hard facts and reasoning. And your position is persuasive.

A nice introduction to "Part II." You've certainly won my respect and my interest in learning more.

[stumann]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

in Rogue economics : capitalism's new reality, Loretta Napoleoni points out that the Euro soared as a result of the Patriot Act making money laundering in US$'s much too risky, which was then magnified by globalised hedge funds jumping on board and pushing the US$ even lower.

chances are Obama will eventually withdraw much of Patriot Act, both in an attempt to "strengthen democracy", but more likely as a favor to Wall St. it'll be a green light to the global rogue economic element that the US is once again "open for business" in the money laundering department.

any news of a Patriot Act reversal should mean both a strengthening US$ coupled with inflation in real estate.

[jk]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

EJ --

You say that "The housing echo bubble will not last long without sustained government support or a robust improvement in jobs and incomes. We expect the reversion to the mean process to continue next year."

It appears that the $8000 housing credit will be extended for at least another year, and maybe even longer. Won't such sustained support prevent the mean reversion from occurring next year?

the process will continue. it won't be completed next year or the year after. it will take several years. the $8k credit slows the process, but it really only helps support the bottom end of the market anyway, and even so won't reverse the process in the face of squeezed incomes. hey, doesn't everyone want affordable housing?:rolleyes: be careful what you wish for....

[cjppjc]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

I pull out a new trick every day and come here for support when I feel weak. ;) In addition, we have had multiple overqualified people offer to babysit recently, and some have driven an hour to get here and one has a postgrad degree. I have pointed out why this is so and I think my wife is getting it. She at least doesn't ask me anymore why I keep buying those shiny coins.

Using truth and logic to deny your wife the things she wants most. Brilliant.

[magicvent]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

EJ --

You say that "The housing echo bubble will not last long without sustained government support or a robust improvement in jobs and incomes. We expect the reversion to the mean process to continue next year."

It appears that the $8000 housing credit will be extended for at least another year, and maybe even longer. Won't such sustained support prevent the mean reversion from occurring next year?

[Jay]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

Forget that. How are you going to tell your wife you have to wait till home prices drop 70 percent?

I pull out a new trick every day and come here for support when I feel weak. ;) In addition, we have had multiple overqualified people offer to babysit recently, and some have driven an hour to get here and one has a postgrad degree. I have pointed out why this is so and I think my wife is getting it. She at least doesn't ask me anymore why I keep buying those shiny coins.

[cjppjc]

Re: Mission Accomplished – Part I: Wrecking the Economy - Eric Janszen

Why will Japan or China for that matter be the ones with the whip? Won't we just inflate away their claims on us and tell them to spit?

Forget that. How are you going to tell your wife you have to wait till home prices drop 70 percent?