Evidence of economy crashing...

[dbarberic]

Re: Linens 'n Things weighing bankruptcy

Urbansurvival.com is reporting many instances of homeless tent cities popping up all over the country and cheap used RVs and conversion vans being sold out.

Although all hearsay, tent cities have been reported in the following cities:
-Cleveland, OH
-Ontario, CA
-Portland, Oregon
-Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Bridge City, Texas
-Oahu, HI
-New Orleans
-Austin, TX
-Joplin, Missouri

[zoog]

Re: Linens 'n Things weighing bankruptcy

From Reuters. Other reports, including the WSJ, seem more confident they will file bankruptcy.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home goods retailer Linens 'n Things is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy court protection, a person familiar with the situation said on Friday.

The chain, owned by Leon Black's buyout firm Apollo Global Management, is negotiating with creditors, which include General Electric Co , the source said.

While bankruptcy is "on the table," it is one of many options being considered, the source said. "It is not the top option, nor is it the option that the company is currently pursuing at this very second."

Citing people with knowledge of the situation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that the retailer could file for bankruptcy protection by Tuesday.

A GE spokesman confirmed that its Commercial Finance unit is the lead agent on a $700 million revolving credit facility to Linens 'n Things, but declined to comment further.

If Linens 'n Things does file for Chapter 11, it would be among the largest companies taken private in the recent buyout boom to do so.

Bed Bath & Beyond reported this week a 16 percent fall in quarterly profit and forecast first-quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations.

[skurla2000]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

splat! thanks. florida is ground zero of the housing bust. how are other areas doing?

Florida is ground zero... All those greedy investors, or is it? I bought a few condos in Fort Lauderdale in a lower-middle income neighborhood as a modest cash flow investment. Bought in 2005 with a 30 year fixed mortgage...

In 2005:
$750 rent - $400 mortgage - $140 fees - $60 tax = $150 profit

In 2008:
$750 rent - $400 mortgage - $560 fees - $120 tax = $330 loss

Fees up by 4x due to a 300% insurance increase and 50% of owners not paying their share. Every time fees go up, less people pay, making fees go up again... I don't know where it ends, but I don't think anybody will be able to hang on for much longer...

My advise is to ignore any analyst who tells you we've hit a bottom. The bottom will be when each and every property has completed the foreclosure process and is resold at its new (much lower) market value. In my complex only about 8% of the units have completed foreclosure and none have sold at auction. Also, because of the court glut, foreclosure is taking longer and longer, up from 6 months to about a year. I'd guess we have another 2-3 years to go from here.

The sad part is that these properties might lose 80% of their value in the process, and in Florida the owner can be responsible for the deficiency in the loan to that value. A $200k home foreclosure can leave an owner without the home and still on the hook for $160k! Short sales and deed-in lieu are a joke! Expect a large bankruptcy wave behind the foreclosure wave!

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

Like I said, I'm sure a few customers with store charge cards (a very few) might make in-person payments at a store chain that offered this, but this is hardly something anyone with any financial means at all would be doing. We can't judge the economy as a whole based on how folks down at the check cashing stores or rent to own furniture places are doing either.

apparently others on another website related to "financial armageddon" (cough cough) also found this note suspicious. Here's what I saw there:

Post #1

"This "chat room" clip seems bogus to me. I was in a believing mood until the credit card clearing part. I've worked retail and you are not able to see credit card balances and transactions at a register while clearing a customer's transaction nor are you able to see what their payments are. Sure there are some parallels to this letter and the general economy, things are gettings slow etc., but it just strikes me as a fake. The details in the quoted post are so vague, anyone could write this and say anything they want.


Posted by: Brian | April 09, 2008 at 10:29 AM "

Post #2


"I agree with Brian. The credit card info sounds bogus which leads me to question the validity of this story. On the flip side, I have noticed that stores seem emptier than previously and more importantly, the lines at check outs shorter. "

I'm not arguing there isn't a bad time in retailing going on. It's just the embellishments I object to. Btw, I was at Home Depot on a Tuesday at 2pm yesterday and the parking lot was as full as I've ever seen it. It's spring break week here. Further proof that anecdotal evidence isn't all that useful. Because you know Home Depot isn't seeing surging sales.

And having been in quasi retail, I can tell you that some locations have slow times that are doing quite well. I managed a rental operation that was a ghost town on Mondays yet did around $100,000 in sales in a single day on the weekend. Perhaps people don't typically shop for shirts on Monday. At least not people with jobs.

[rabot10]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

the nytimes had a piece on that...

In a Modern Gold Rush, Can Memories Beat $913 an Ounce?

and ej's written about it.

the nytimes story REALLY PISSES ME OFF.

these folks aren't greedy, selling their stuff because the gold price is high. they're broke and selling because of the recession and inflation... they'd sell if gold was $800 or $700 or $600. they're DESPERATE. you could say they're selling not because $900 creates an 'opportunity' to sell their precious heirlooms but on account of the REASON gold is $900... INFLATION!

inflation without representation!

i demand an antispin on this story!

hey U could not sell a house in Florida to save your fricken life - I go to a lot of places to eat and they still have lines - go figure-

[ocelotl]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

It surely is getting bad, and this is not something that will pass fast. From now, unless the fundamental thoughts of the average American shift towards savings instead of spending and self indulging, we are going to see huge worsenings in debt.

From my part, I only can welcome you to a combination of 1982-7 and 1994-6 Mexican Crises as related to the individuals.

Next thing you may begin to see is that people that wander shop centers usually see them just as walkaways, seeing the stores but buying as little as possible, carrying, when they decide onto some buy, just a small bag during their errands. I remember in 1983-6 that many stores here in Mexico looked almost abandoned, not only with few people, also with few products. As inflation grew, it got more common to see larger sales in order to empty producers and retailers stocks. 30-50% discounts were not uncommon in the worst point of the crisis. It is always better to have some cash on hand to get by than a warehouse full of stuff that nobody is buying.

[phirang]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

the people cashing in... are they selling their QVC junk to pay off a bill, or are they Bolivian land-owning oligarchs (ahem ahem) cashing in at a top?

[metalman]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

I have noticed that when I go to my favorite coin shop, there are waiting lines to get into the store to trade whatever jewelry (mostly gold, but some silver) for cash. This has occurred both at the opening hour and the closing hour, and I had never observed this much store traffic in the six years that I have shopped there.

the nytimes had a piece on that...

In a Modern Gold Rush, Can Memories Beat $913 an Ounce?

and ej's written about it.

the nytimes story REALLY PISSES ME OFF.

these folks aren't greedy, selling their stuff because the gold price is high. they're broke and selling because of the recession and inflation... they'd sell if gold was $800 or $700 or $600. they're DESPERATE. you could say they're selling not because $900 creates an 'opportunity' to sell their precious heirlooms but on account of the REASON gold is $900... INFLATION!

inflation without representation!

i demand an antispin on this story!

[algerwetmore]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

I have noticed that when I go to my favorite coin shop, there are waiting lines to get into the store to trade whatever jewelry (mostly gold, but some silver) for cash. This has occurred both at the opening hour and the closing hour, and I had never observed this much store traffic in the six years that I have shopped there.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

And since when do retail people on the floor also process credit card payments? Especially at a "top 3" retailer? The place that processes payments is likely not even in the same state. Perhaps it's a Sears and they have some sort of walk-in "pay your bill" station, but they have always appealed to the most marginal prospects anyway with their "we charge 20% more but give you a credit card" business strategy.

further responses from the same poster (it is orginally a thread from democraticunderground.com)

We have our own store issued credit card that people have. Because we issue it people can come in store and make payments on it. At the service desk we process payments for people who come in store to make a payment. We never see anything about their payments/balance if they are just buying something, only if they are coming in to make a payment.

[..]

I mean when I process peoples credit card payments for *our store issued card*. As in people who come in to make a payment on the card we issue. I don't mean payment as in a point of sale payment.

[metalman]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

Are the layoffs a result of manufacturing outsourcing? I don't see why any biotech co would reduce its core R&D and engineering staff at the moment...

this one surprised me, too. figured biotech as an island in a sea of fire :eek:

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

I suspect this is either a hoax post or a grossly embellished one.

"NO" tvs sold in a week, despite 30-50% markdowns?

Recessions are dropoffs of a marginal nature, it's not like sales go from 100 to 2 overnight.

And since when do retail people on the floor also process credit card payments? Especially at a "top 3" retailer? The place that processes payments is likely not even in the same state. Perhaps it's a Sears and they have some sort of walk-in "pay your bill" station, but they have always appealed to the most marginal prospects anyway with their "we charge 20% more but give you a credit card" business strategy.

This person isn't even the GM of the store, yet has access to district and national sales figures?

Sales so low they can't even justify sending a truck out? Puhleeese! The poster claimed this is a major retailer in a major city.

Things are bad enough without this sort of BS winding up on itulip and destroying its credibility. If it becomes a tin foil hat website full of UFO spottings it's not going to grow and gain acceptance.

I realize it was posted w/o endorsement but a little common sense is all that was needed to demolish its claims.

I'm wondering how long till this post shows up at snopes.com. It has exactly the same sounding type of language as many of their urban legends.

[phirang]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

I work in one of the U.S. largest biotech companies in the San Francisco Bay Area. They are doing a voluntary severance package - laying off personnel for the first time in the company's history. At least it's voluntary, but nevertheless, it is a lay off.

I did notice Costco sure doesn't seem to be hurting. It was as crowded as always last weekend.

Many of my friends from other medical device companies have been laid off. For the first time in my life, I know quite a lot of people currently out of a job.

What is strange is that the house prices where I live - Cupertino, CA - have not come down much or at all.

I will not be spending my tax rebate - it will go directly into savings. Luckily, I have no debts - still renting.

Are the layoffs a result of manufacturing outsourcing? I don't see why any biotech co would reduce its core R&D and engineering staff at the moment...

[Rajiv]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

Is this what you are talking about? --- MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

In February 2008, we established a voluntary severance program for select groups of manufacturing employees. The program provides these employees the opportunity to voluntarily resign from the Company in exchange for a severance package. Employees will have until March 2008 to elect whether to participate in the voluntary severance program. We currently expect to record compensation charges in COS associated with this program of approximately $20 million in the first quarter of 2008, although the charges could be higher or lower depending on the number of employees who elect to participate.

[johnnybill45]

Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

I work in one of the U.S. largest biotech companies in the San Francisco Bay Area. They are doing a voluntary severance package - laying off personnel for the first time in the company's history. At least it's voluntary, but nevertheless, it is a lay off.

I did notice Costco sure doesn't seem to be hurting. It was as crowded as always last weekend.

Many of my friends from other medical device companies have been laid off. For the first time in my life, I know quite a lot of people currently out of a job.

What is strange is that the house prices where I live - Cupertino, CA - have not come down much or at all.

I will not be spending my tax rebate - it will go directly into savings. Luckily, I have no debts - still renting.