the strong usd

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

...Will a loss of confidence abroad drive even more capital flows to the safety of the US$?

Hmmmm...

The thumbnail attached is the JP Morgan EM currency index. None of those currencies are included in the USDX. All of it bears watching imo.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...wsviewer_click

Treasury yields extend decline after solid 5-year bond auction

Treasury yields accelerated their fall on Wednesday following a $41 billion auction for 5-year notes...Debt prices move in the opposite direction of yields. The auction "stopped through" by 1.1 basis points, a sign of strong appetite for the debt available for sale. A stop-through indicates when the highest yield the Treasury sold in the auction is below the highest yield expected when the auction began - the "when issued" level.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

short piece by jeff snider on gold pricing: "fear gold" vs "collateral gold"
https://www.alhambrapartners.com/201...-of-fear-gold/

[llanlad2]

Re: the strong usd

Anybody have any links to investment advisers discussing political scenarios and thinking outside the box? A few people I know made some pretty radical re-allocations after Trump was elected, most of them getting out of stocks and regretting it.

The election is a little over a year away. The democratic candidate will likely be known in 8 months. If you think Trump will try to up his chances anyway he can, of far less likely that things will get to the point where people are in the streets during or after the election, it seems like cash and gold are your only choices. It also seems unlikely that the upward momentum for the US economy can be restored.
How long can this "Talks have been restarted," (markets up) "I'm raising the tariffs higher" (markets down) BS go on?

David Hunter has made a lot of good calls recently. He reckons a melt up in equities is starting
with the dollar dropping to 88 before a massive deflationary bust next year.
Take a look at David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian): https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian?s=09

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

recommend latest interview with jeff snider at macrovoices, recorded today, on what the bond market is saying, gold and the dollar. much more understandable than most of snider's stuff.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

Anybody have any links to investment advisers discussing political scenarios and thinking outside the box? A few people I know made some pretty radical re-allocations after Trump was elected, most of them getting out of stocks and regretting it.

The election is a little over a year away. The democratic candidate will likely be known in 8 months. If you think Trump will try to up his chances anyway he can, of far less likely that things will get to the point where people are in the streets during or after the election, it seems like cash and gold are your only choices. It also seems unlikely that the upward momentum for the US economy can be restored.
How long can this "Talks have been restarted," (markets up) "I'm raising the tariffs higher" (markets down) BS go on?

slowly people and markets are realizing that it's not about tariffs and it's not a trade war - it's a world historic struggle between an established and a rising power. if we're lucky it will take decades to play out ["lucky" because that would mean no war.]

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

With capital sloshing around the world looking to protect itself not a surprise both the US$ and gold are rising. The gold market isn't deep enough to absorb much of the haven seeking flows.

We all know the real move in gold (and oil) will be when the US$ trend reverses. But is that next month? Next quarter? Next year? Or years away?

Will this Administration do something really reckless by way of a policy mistake in its efforts to get re-elected, thus triggering the sentiment change needed to shift the trend? (Will it even need to given the feckless suite of candidates the Democrats have thus far fielded?).

i think the dollar can continue to rise vis a vis other currencies, while it drops in purchasing power and gold rises even faster. i actually think that's where things are headed but, as you say, it's impossible to know the timing.

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

I wonder if Hillary will run again?

[Thailandnotes]

Re: the strong usd

With capital sloshing around the world looking to protect itself not a surprise both the US$ and gold are rising. The gold market isn't deep enough to absorb much of the haven seeking flows.

We all know the real move in gold (and oil) will be when the US$ trend reverses. But is that next month? Next quarter? Next year? Or years away?

Will this Administration do something really reckless by way of a policy mistake in its efforts to get re-elected, thus triggering the sentiment change needed to shift the trend? (Will it even need to given the feckless suite of candidates the Democrats have thus far fielded?).

Anybody have any links to investment advisers discussing political scenarios and thinking outside the box? A few people I know made some pretty radical re-allocations after Trump was elected, most of them getting out of stocks and regretting it.

The election is a little over a year away. The democratic candidate will likely be known in 8 months. If you think Trump will try to up his chances anyway he can, of far less likely that things will get to the point where people are in the streets during or after the election, it seems like cash and gold are your only choices. It also seems unlikely that the upward momentum for the US economy can be restored.
How long can this "Talks have been restarted," (markets up) "I'm raising the tariffs higher" (markets down) BS go on?

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

The dollar may be strong compared to other currencies but today it takes 1,500 of them to buy an ounce of gold.

With capital sloshing around the world looking to protect itself not a surprise both the US$ and gold are rising. The gold market isn't deep enough to absorb much of the haven seeking flows.

We all know the real move in gold (and oil) will be when the US$ trend reverses. But is that next month? Next quarter? Next year? Or years away?

Will this Administration do something really reckless by way of a policy mistake in its efforts to get re-elected, thus triggering the sentiment change needed to shift the trend? (Will it even need to given the feckless suite of candidates the Democrats have thus far fielded?).

[kbird]

Re: the strong usd

It seems likely that Trump will juice the markets before the election, announce a breakthrough on the trade war, sign something "historic" like the Nafta rewrite, sending gold back under 1300.

That prediction requires Trump having both the ability and willingness to cap the gold price. I suspect neither are true.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

the only thing that might be better, vote-wise, than a deal with china is an escalation of conflict.

[touchring]

Re: the strong usd

It seems likely that Trump will juice the markets before the election, announce a breakthrough on the trade war, sign something "historic" like the Nafta rewrite, sending gold back under 1300.

Yes, but why would china want to have any agreement with Trump and let him have a second term?

[Thailandnotes]

Re: the strong usd

15min interview focused on gold with luke gromen at macrovoices

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts...ep-buying-gold

It seems likely that Trump will juice the markets before the election, announce a breakthrough on the trade war, sign something "historic" like the Nafta rewrite, sending gold back under 1300.

[Chomsky]

Re: the strong usd

no. lukester told me his real name in a pm exchange. not luke gromen.

My mind was only blown by kbird even making the connection - I had forgotten all about lukester and, from looking at his posts, the last of which was 10 years ago, no wonder I forgot.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

no. lukester told me his real name in a pm exchange. not luke gromen.