Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

[Tybee Island]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

I was reading the South Florida Business Journal this morning and further to the repossession of boats and liquidating them here is the article and the corresponding website. Unbelievable.



http://www.yachtauctions.com/inventory.php

http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2009/11/16/story4.html?b=1258347600^2432281

[KGW]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon


I'll take this one. . .:cool:

I was reading the South Florida Business Journal this morning and further to the repossession of boats and liquidating them here is the article and the corresponding website. Unbelievable.



http://www.yachtauctions.com/inventory.php

http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2009/11/16/story4.html?b=1258347600^2432281

[sishya]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

I just moved to CA from FL, and I can personally tell you that FL R/E is in the tank and getting worse. I know alot of people in FL in most of the major locations from Tampa, Palm Bch, Naples, Miami, Jacksonville, and Boca, and anyone selling is having to take a severe beating. A couple I know who also moved from FL bought their FL ocean front 3800sq ft home for $1.7M in 2006 and the highest offer they have had in over 15 months is $600K. Their property taxes are $58,000/yr, and their homeowners insurance is over $40,000/yr. The big factors with the people I know who are moving away from FL are the porperty taxes and homeowners insurance. I had a small home in Florida in a very exclusive neighborhood that was NOT in a FEMA flood zone and my homeowners insurance was over $5,000/yr with a $34,000 deductible AND they would not insure contents over $80K (which did not even cover the art in the livingroom). The property taxes were over $12,000/yr and keep in mind the house was only 1700 sq ft. (small!). Thankfully, I found the last fool to over pay for property in FL, and took the money and ran. In CA I have over 3200sqft, built in 2006, with expansive mountain, valley and coastal views, property taxes of only $10,000/yr and homeowners insurance of $573/yr that covers the entire structure with only a $500 deductible and $300k basic contents coverage with special writers for expensive individual items. I could not even find an insurance company in FL that would issue the special writers for the individual items. Many of my FL neighbors decided to self insure (easy to do if you are worth tens of millions - not exactly my story ) ... and Charlie Christ is useless in effectively dealing with the heavy handedness of the insurance industry in FL. My advice to anyone considering moving to Florida is consider that decision carefully. Personally, I will never go back to Florida, and more and more of my FL skeptical-about-CA friends who have visited me in CA are seeing the light also.

Thanks for your sharing your Experience. I am thinking of Buying a Condo for Investment purposes in Palm Beach area. But I think the long term picture for Florida is good because baby boomers will downsize and re-locate to warmer weather with less tax and FL is suited for that. Over the next decade, I think FL will do good, only my opinion.

[Tybee Island]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

I saw that one too..........Very, Very cool!

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

I saw that one too..........Very, Very cool!

Sweet Ride! They even had Bernie Madoff's old boat, a '55 Rybo.

http://www.yachtauctions.com/images/...58/3758__4.jpg

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Hey Biscayne,

I don't know if you read the latest numbers but since 2007 broward has been depopulating and I think they said Miami started losing population as of the beginning of this year. I personally don't see down here doing so well given the fact they have no real industries. With peak oil, high gas/input prices and less jobs I figure people are going to leave. Although I believe Miami will probably do better than Broward (which has close to nothing going for it.)

Hey Wild, I hadn't heard from you in a while and was beginning to wonder if you were still on the site.

Yes, I've been following the numbers declining in the area. What I meant to impress, though, was a piggyback of the iTulip thesis of the real estate bust starting in the exurbs and working its way into the center cities.

South Florida has been a main magnet in Florida for 100 years. It has always been the most exciting place, only recently usurped by Orlando (in terms of growth not excitement). The gold coast has around 5M people so even if we lose a third we will still be a fairly large and desirable metro area. It's just that we will be smaller and less dense. I don't think everyone is going to move back to the beaches because a lot of people like The Redlands, Weston and Wellington. If the state can keep the taxes under control we may attract enough affluent retirees from the Wall Street financial community to live in Boca, Delray, Manalapan, Gulfstream, etc.

Ft Myers on the other hand has little in redeeming qualities. It is more likely to slip back into quiet isolation. Again, regression to the old standard.

[Wild Style]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Hey Wild, I hadn't heard from you in a while and was beginning to wonder if you were still on the site.

Yes, I've been following the numbers declining in the area. What I meant to impress, though, was a piggyback of the iTulip thesis of the real estate bust starting in the exurbs and working its way into the center cities.

South Florida has been a main magnet in Florida for 100 years. It has always been the most exciting place, only recently usurped by Orlando (in terms of growth not excitement). The gold coast has around 5M people so even if we lose a third we will still be a fairly large and desirable metro area. It's just that we will be smaller and less dense. I don't think everyone is going to move back to the beaches because a lot of people like The Redlands, Weston and Wellington. If the state can keep the taxes under control we may attract enough affluent retirees from the Wall Street financial community to live in Boca, Delray, Manalapan, Gulfstream, etc.

Ft Myers on the other hand has little in redeeming qualities. It is more likely to slip back into quiet isolation. Again, regression to the old standard.

Yeah I am here. I am in career change mode (Thank God I still have a job to see me through the transition). So I usually only come here to peak in from time to time. Oh and I am a downtowner now too. I walked to the publix on Andrews. On Sunday, the amount of homeless downtown was extremely inappropriate! I won't be making that walk that late in the evening again, that's for sure. At least not with the wife in tow. Good thing is, if we do stay here (God forbid) then we will be able to get a condo or townhome downtown for a steal. Though I would much rather Brickell (as you know)

As for the Gold Coast, I saw a thesis put forth which I found interesting. It went something like, America will evolve into a bunch of megalopolises. They named the usual suspects, NYC metro area, Chicagoland, DC, LA etc. They named Miami with a BIG question mark. I think Fort lauderdale would definitly benefit from Miami's economic development, That is if the city officials in Dade can stay focused long enough to stop stealing long eough to bring about meaningful growth and economic development. However, they should level all of Hollywood, FL and make it into a huge central park or nature preserve. I know, I said it before but that is one of the most bizarre places I have ever seen in my entire life.

I think your right though, people will still retire here but for someone young and looking to do well for themselves, that isn't a good mix. I guess this place will revert back to the bedroom community sorta vibe it once was?

[sunskyfan]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Okay. Never been to Southern Florida. Where is Robert Redford standing at the very end of Havana? The movie with Jena Olin. He is looking south toward Cuba wondering where she is. That is the spot I want.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Okay. Never been to Southern Florida. Where is Robert Redford standing at the very end of Havana? The movie with Jena Olin. He is looking south toward Cuba wondering where she is. That is the spot I want.

I've never seen the movie, sorry. But if I had to guess the two areas a movie director would use for such a location, one would be at the Dinner Key Auditorium in Coconut Grove, site of the old Pan Am flying boat terminal in the 30's or somewhere in Key West.

Many such romanic spots in south Florida.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Thanks for your sharing your Experience. I am thinking of Buying a Condo for Investment purposes in Palm Beach area. But I think the long term picture for Florida is good because baby boomers will downsize and re-locate to warmer weather with less tax and FL is suited for that. Over the next decade, I think FL will do good, only my opinion.

sishya,

Not sure where you live or how closely you are monitoring the RE market here but as tybee and due have been discussing there is no reason to rush into the market.

If one is considering buying for personal use and is getting your dream house at the right price, and can easily afford the obligation far into the future, then, sure buy.

In my mind,though, it does not make any sense to use debt to buy an asset that will either stay flat or more likely lower in value. If you are thinking of buying as an investment, I believe you are way early. Keep in mind, too, that investment properties in Florida are taxed much more heavily than primary residences.

There are some excellent upper middle class neighborhoods here on the gold coast that offer an enticing retirement lifestyle. Prices are way down: very temping, but wait a few years.

[sishya]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

sishya,

Not sure where you live or how closely you are monitoring the RE market here but as tybee and due have been discussing there is no reason to rush into the market.

If one is considering buying for personal use and is getting your dream house at the right price, and can easily afford the obligation far into the future, then, sure buy.

In my mind,though, it does not make any sense to use debt to buy an asset that will either stay flat or more likely lower in value. If you are thinking of buying as an investment, I believe you are way early. Keep in mind, too, that investment properties in Florida are taxed much more heavily than primary residences.

There are some excellent upper middle class neighborhoods here on the gold coast that offer an enticing retirement lifestyle. Prices are way down: very temping, but wait a few years.

Thanks for your local Info. I am in far away North California. So I do not know FL market at all, but have heard condos are selling for 100K's, which I could half in cash. Yes, I have to think about Taxes.

My positive comment regarding FL was the long term picture of Boomers moving in.

Another General Question : If Long Term Interests move up next year, what will happen to US Residential Real Estate market ? I suspect a second downturn after recent relative price stabilization.

[flintlock]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Yeah, but what will the property taxes be on all that "cheap land". I doubt there will be enough cash buyers to make up for the exodus. Of course not everyone will leave. The underclass will remain in their government subsidized housing. And we know who gets to pay for that.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Thanks for your local Info. I am in far away North California. So I do not know FL market at all, but have heard condos are selling for 100K's, which I could half in cash. Yes, I have to think about Taxes.

My positive comment regarding FL was the long term picture of Boomers moving in.

Another General Question : If Long Term Interests move up next year, what will happen to US Residential Real Estate market ? I suspect a second downturn after recent relative price stabilization.

Sishya,

If you are planning on going in with that much cash, it seems rising mortgage rates shouldn't be a big problem. If anything, rising rates will make properties less affordable and may possibly lower prices.

There was a recent article in Bloomberg, I think, discussing the south Florida condo market. The analyst was suggesting that we will see regression to 1960's prices on condos. 10 cents on the dollar off of their 2005 highs.

So yes, lower prices, still to come, especially in the condo market.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Thanks ... if you like Redford, Cuba at the revolution, and an unbelievably beautiful Brown Eyed Brown haired women. Check out Havana. A Sidney Polluck sleeper.

[audrey_girl]

Re: Sunshine State: Darkness at Noon

Define deals? I quietly monitor the descent and I think you can go fishing for at least the next 2 years (and more likely 4 yrs.) and not miss a thing.

Until the Banks are forced to recognize the losses, we stand in a stalemate. Unlikely under this administration and perhaps only after a wholesale reorganization of the entire banking structure induced by the demands of our creditors outside the oligarchy's control.

I must admit - I do very much enjoy your posts Tybee