Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

[DemonD]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

What do you mean "real hall mark[sic] of the current downturn?

Are you saying this is the beginning of the end on the way further down, or the end of the way down and now things will turn up, or something else?

I guess hallmark was poor word to use. It's a fair question. I meant it to mean milestone, where this event marks that milestone onto the next phase down where cities, counties, and states either start severely cutting services, severely raise taxes, and/or declare bankruptcy.

babbittd's post confirms, although even before the bond auction failures those things were in the works, but what I feel this is is just like when last spring when mortgage companies and banks stopped giving subprime loans, this stopped all the real estate specuvestors and home borrowers from continuing the credit orgy; now that has spread to the city level, no more malinvestment with the backing of a credit expansion. One of EJ's great contributions to the thought process of this was the idea of risk pollution, and as we can see this is definitely a spread of the toxicity into government, currently due to the credit deflation, but also due to the fact that many governments were acting just like subprime borrowers and going overbudget on superfluous projects and benefits.

there was one milestone day last year where subprime loans went away almost overnight. This auction failure is analogous to that, this time affecting government. A real SHTF moment.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

Well, not many schools, yet.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la...,3850513.story

Some CA. districts have announced that schools will close beginning in 2009.

a quick scan of newswires reveals the following closures all for budget shortfalls:

Brady school closing - Montana

Volusia County, Florida school closings

Upstate New York - two elementary schools

Baltimore county elementary schools

Waterloo, Iowa elementary schools

School-closing plan draws opposition - Pennsylvania

Chandler, Arizona elementary schools

There are many more articles covering the same subject, around the country.

And if police and fire department budget woes are subjects that depress you, do not click to view these google news search results.

The map says, "we're fucked!"

[Andreuccio]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

I posted something similar to this in the News section. While a lot of people might be struggling financially, we're not at the point where we are shutting down schools and fire stations and whatnot. I'm wondering if this week is going to be a real hall mark of the current downturn.

Well, not many schools, yet.

Schwarzenegger's budget plan triggers trims in programs and plans for layoffs in L.A. County and elsewhere.

By Jason Song, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
February 21, 2008
The Long Beach school board voted to close an elementary school this week. The Rialto Unified School District, in what is believed to be the first such action in the state this year, sent notices to 305 employees including teachers, informing them that they may not have a job next fall. The San Francisco school district may take city "rainy day" money to help balance its budget.

School districts across California have begun trimming services and preparing to lay off teachers in response to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's proposed budget, which could cut about $4.8 billion in education funding this year and next year. Educators say it's the worst financial crisis they can remember.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la...,3850513.story

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

well at least you have a stop point. by going contrary to the 1% that's bearish because they read this and other bear sites all you're doing is taking the side of the 99% clueless.

metalman, I am long in some equity index positions because the indicators at which I look have been at points that typically, though not infallibly, have marked some sort of bottoms. That would be put/call ratios, investor sentiment polls: AAII, II, and Consensus Bulls, and also the degree of various oversold/overbought indicators--recently the focus has been in the oversold direction. No decisions I make are focused on the bullishness or bearishness of articles in the MSM or on the few websites I peruse. However, it is difficult in looking at what I am accustomed to perusing to find anything but all out gloom and doom, and I choose to use that as confirmation to the at least slightly more objective measures of investor sentiment in polls and using put/call data.

now that may be the money for all i know but i seem to recall another post of yours where you say that most of the people are wrong. so i'm totally missing your logic.

I think I said someone else said most people are wrong in their sentiment when it comes to turning points in markets. That is the basis for contrarian analysis and action if one tries to trade on a contrarian basis, but I do subscribe to the observation by whoever it was that first made the observation. The data at which I look and have looked for over twenty years suggest that recently there has been extreme negativity to the degree that it has previously noted bottoms. I've put up this article now in several posts, which I don't put forth as some sort of holy grail http://www.safehaven.com/article-9508.htm Actually I crossed that article after I had entered my current long positions (you can check
Top Investors to see the positions and when I bought them). The article is a nice article in looking at the confluence of such indicators as I mentioned above and their relative success in picking bottoms. It notes and I emphasize also the notable failure of such a confluence in October 2002, and I do not discount that we could be in another period now that is very similar to then.

well no one else seems to mind or at least they don't complain. shit, they may even like it.... matter of fact someone here sent me a nice msg to that effect recently. so there.

I think we have a lot of wimps, panty-waist types here who would never criticize anything--you know guys not like you seem to be and I am. I don't think you should get too ebullient on anyone complimenting the use of shitty English. My point is serious and simple, shit, if anyone has something worthwhile to put up here and the majority of people do, then it is worthwhile for them to do their best to make their posts comprehensible. It might take a bit more of their time, but it saves time for all who read it, and there is nothing wrong with going to the trouble necessary to attempt to explain what one wishes to express. So perhaps the score is 1:1, you decide.

oh c'mon. do a google search fer chrissakes. here's asshat and jerkweed used in the same article... http://cakeeaterchronicles.mu.nu/archives/252175.php

I seldom google anything because it seems the whole world lives by google. Thanks for the link, I'll check it out and am sure I will be edified.

Edit: That really doesn't explain "asshat." Because you used the word, I would think you should be responsible for telling me exactly what it means, same for jerkweed. It strikes me that "asshat" is some attempt at a new word for an old condition: asshole. Just like over the recent years everybody has got "attitude", fuck! even trucks and cars in adverts have "attitude". All people have an attitude, it is either good, bad, or passive, but in the modern day vernacular "attitude" means just one thing, I guess, "bad" and "bad" means "good." What shit this is!!

[metalman]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

Seriously, thanks for your answer. Posts are occurring so rapidly here on Itulip, I'm getting flummoxed.

Your explanation for "here" sucks, surely you can do better.

I am not kidding, all I read is rather much bearish and I don't read anything at Fool or on Yahoo finance. I'm not wedded to my long positions, so unless the market dropped a 1000$ in 30 minutes, I expect I could get out of them near my mental stop point.

well at least you have a stop point. by going contrary to the 1% thatt's bearish 'cause they read this and other bear sites all you're doing is taking the side of the 99% clueless. now that may be the money for all i know but i seem to recall another post of yours where you say that most of the people are wrong. so i'm totally missing your logic.

I only admonished your writing because it was damned near unintelligble. I vacillate in my assessment of what you know. Sometimes I think you know a whole lot, you sure are great at recalling a lot of stuff, and other times I think you must be an idiot--which in all likelihood you are far from--but the way you choose or allow yourself to express thoughts sometimes is so poor that it seems to waste time to try to figure it out. I am attempting to be contructive in my criticism, certainly not destructive.

well no one else seems to mind or at least they don't compain. shit, they may even like it.... matter of fact someone here sent me a nice msg to that effect recently. so there.

What is a "jerkweed'?

oh c'mon. do a google search fer chrissakes. here's asshat and jerkweed used in the same article... http://cakeeaterchronicles.mu.nu/archives/252175.php

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

by "here" i mean you. you and tet, that is. whatever happened to old tet anyhow? looks like he was washed out in the bear market already. you will be but later, i suppose.
you're kidding, right? only here and a few bear sites so far as i can tell. go to yahoo! or motley fool etc. 99% of the population does NOT read itulip or other sites like this. they watch the news and shrug because the news says, "boo! news at 11!" and then on comes some guy who says blah, blah, but don't worry and they don't because they have no idea what he's talking about and trust anyone in a suit on tv. as long as they have a place to eat doughnuts and drink beer and money to buy 'em no one gives a shit about cdos and all that crap. not until they go to the bank and the atm doesn't work because they bank shut down or they ran out of money.

i admonish you for admonishing people for spelling errors and other little mistakes. this ain't an essay writing contest... it's causal conversation. relax. what's a ball buster? you are kidding me again. asshat is like a jerkweed but with more pretense.

Seriously, thanks for your answer. Posts are occurring so rapidly here on Itulip, I'm getting flummoxed.

Your explanation for "here" sucks, surely you can do better.

I am not kidding, all I read is rather much bearish and I don't read anything at Fool or on Yahoo finance. I'm not wedded to my long positions, so unless the market dropped a 1000$ in 30 minutes, I expect I could get out of them near my mental stop point.

I only admonished your writing because it was damned near unintelligble. I vacillate in my assessment of what you know. Sometimes I think you know a whole lot, you sure are great at recalling a lot of stuff, and other times I think you must be an idiot--which in all likelihood you are far from--but the way you choose or allow yourself to express thoughts sometimes is so poor that it seems to waste time to try to figure it out. I am attempting to be contructive in my criticism, certainly not destructive.

What is a "jerkweed'?

[metalman]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

Thanks, metalman, your answer is almost equisite English, now if you could just learn "CAPS."

Now when you wrote "here" were you referencing iTulip or where you live? I'm hard pressed to see much denial here on iTulip, except for perhaps my own disposition, so you must be writing about where you live, which is where?

I am significantly long, and man, I cannot even explain how it could possibly work out except that almost everyone, almost everywhere, almost all the time, is negative and there is nothing but bad news to boot. My answer is I hate crowds.

by "here" i mean you. you and tet, that is. whatever happened to old tet anyhow? looks like he was washed out in the bear market already. you will be but later, i suppose.

almost everyone, almost everywhere, almost all the time, is negative and there is nothing but bad news to boot.

you're kidding, right? only here and a few bear sites so far as i can tell. go to yahoo! or motley fool etc. 99% of the population does NOT read itulip or other sites like this. they watch the news and shrug because the news says, "boo! news at 11!" and then on comes some guy who says blah, blah, but don't worry and they don't because they have no idea what he's talking about and trust anyone in a suit on tv. as long as they have a place to eat doughnuts and drink beer and money to buy 'em no one gives a shit about cdos and all that crap. not until they go to the bank and the atm doesn't work because they bank shut down or they ran out of money.

metalman, do not admonish me for seeking clarity. You have no basis for doing that. Incidentally, what is an "asshat"? And what do you mean by "ball buster"?

i admonish you for admonishing people for spelling errors and other little mistakes. this ain't an essay writing contest... it's causal conversation. relax. what's a ball buster? you are kidding me again. asshat is like a jerkweed but with more pretense.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

This was always my favorite. Years before he played the heavy in Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels as well:

http://weirdpicturearchive.com/pics/vinniejones.php

Damn. Why can't I get images to work here?

So what does this have to do with anything, WDC?

Edit:OIC (oh, I see), after catching up on the rapid gun-fire like posts, I get it with the ball-busting at least in the soccer-sense.

[sadsack]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

sadsack,

Are you sure you answered the question I asked DemonD? I aprreciate your answer, but I don't know that it is his answer.

Perhaps "hall mark" is graffiti on the wall in the hall.

I'm loathe to put words in DemonD's mouth, but I gather that he feels we are on the "cusp", "point of inflection," etc., where we go from bad to "ball-bustingly" worse (a la Metalman's indelicate soccer pic above).

Since "Hallmark" is a registered trademark, I assume (in the paranoid sense) that DemonD is wary of infringing the trademark, and is in addition unable to incorporate the registered symbol (being an extended ASCII character) . . . ;)

[WDCRob]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

This was always my favorite. Years before he played the heavy in Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels as well:

http://weirdpicturearchive.com/pics/vinniejones.php

Damn. Why can't I get images to work here?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

jim, you get what's happening?

the credit and banking system are breaking down.

so far it all seems abstract... surreal. denial is the order of the day. even here.

what does it mean that towns can't refi debt or sell bonds? it means debt financed stuff will be reduced or shut down.

car loans are off and the auto industry is in recession. just like warburton said it's the muni funds now. next the credit card companies will tighten up as defaults mount. fred ran a chart that shows unemployment rising fast across the country but extra fast in housing bubble crash states.

by hallmark he means when does it stop being about some credit doo dah that stopped trading on wall street and starts being about someone breaking into my house looking for some money?

Thanks, metalman, your answer is almost equisite English, now if you could just learn "CAPS."

Now when you wrote "here" were you referencing iTulip or where you live? I'm hard pressed to see much denial here on iTulip, except for perhaps my own disposition, so you must be writing about where you live, which is where?

I am significantly long, and man, I cannot even explain how it could possibly work out except that almost everyone, almost everywhere, almost all the time, is negative and there is nothing but bad news to boot. My answer is I hate crowds.

also, stop being so friggin dense... and a ball buster to boot.

metalman, do not admonish me for seeking clarity. You have no basis for doing that. Incidentally, what is an "asshat"? And what do you mean by "ball buster"?

[metalman]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

sadsack,

Are you sure you answered the question I asked DemonD? I aprreciate your answer, but I don't know that it is his answer.

Perhaps "hall mark" is graffiti on the wall in the hall.

another jn classic...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

Come on JN, let us be forgiven our trespasses in English usage, as we forgive those who tresspass against us.

With ever so bubblicious CA facing a $14B state shortfall, which I am sure is to be repeated in many of the other states most affected by the housing bubble, a very likely consequence is the pinching of the proverbial municipal penny to the point of screaming by those dependent on municipal budgets.

We hear about malaria breeding grounds in the neglected pools of the McMansions, squatters and dealers setting up shop in the abandoned spec houses. How able will the municipal authorities be to combat the collateral damage from the foreclosure tidal wave when their own budgets for city services are soon set to be completely eviscerated?

sadsack,

Are you sure you answered the question I asked DemonD? I aprreciate your answer, but I don't know that it is his answer.

Perhaps "hall mark" is graffiti on the wall in the hall.

[metalman]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

What do you mean "real hall mark[sic] of the current downturn?

Are you saying this is the beginning of the end on the way further down, or the end of the way down and now things will turn up, or something else?

jim, you get what's happening?

the credit and banking system are breaking down.

so far it all seems abstract... surreal. denial is the order of the day. even here.

what does it mean that towns can't refi debt or sell bonds? it means debt financed stuff will be reduced or shut down.

car loans are off and the auto industry is in recession. just like warburton said it's the muni funds now. next the credit card companies will tighten up as defaults mount. fred ran a chart that shows unemployment rising fast across the country but extra fast in housing bubble crash states.

by hallmark he means when does it stop being about some credit doo dah that stopped trading on wall street and starts being about someone breaking into my house looking for some money?

also, stop being so friggin dense... and a ball buster to boot.

[sadsack]

Re: Credit Crisis and Recession Deepen

Come on JN, let us be forgiven our trespasses in English usage, as we forgive those who tresspass against us.

With ever so bubblicious CA facing a $14B state shortfall, which I am sure is to be repeated in many of the other states most affected by the housing bubble, a very likely consequence is the pinching of the proverbial municipal penny to the point of screaming by those dependent on municipal budgets.

We hear about malaria breeding grounds in the neglected pools of the McMansions, squatters and dealers setting up shop in the abandoned spec houses. How able will the municipal authorities be to combat the collateral damage from the foreclosure tidal wave when their own budgets for city services are soon set to be completely eviscerated?