A bull market in amateur gold commentary

[Polish_Silver]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

The link from Itulip.com does not go to the right thread. It goes to some argument about deflation.

[metalman]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

In the last 2 Rickards interviews on Eric King's site, James Rickards thinks the US FED is trying / will try to get inflation going by lowering the US$ against other currencies

When this fails to work, or fails to ignite inflation, the US FED's last resort will be to lower the US$ 's value relative to Gold (raise the POG)

old news is old.

ej predicted the fed inflation with dollar depreciation before it happened... remember? when the deflation hysteria was flying in march 2009... even here at itulip... where we know deflation can be stopped 'the foolproof way'? by currency depreciation.

from queen of hearts...

This has the important consequence that the current exchange rate immediately reveals whether any policy to escape from a liquidity trap has succeeded in creating expectations of a substantial increase in the future price level. If it has, this appears as a substantial current depreciation of the currency. Consequently, if the currency does not depreciate substantially, the policy has failed.

- Journal of Economic Perspectives Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation:
The Foolproof Way and Others, Lars E.O. Svensson, January 2003

rickards reading old itulip?

[Spartacus]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

In the last 2 Rickards interviews on Eric King's site, James Rickards thinks the US FED is trying / will try to get inflation going by lowering the US$ against other currencies

When this fails to work, or fails to ignite inflation, the US FED's last resort will be to lower the US$ 's value relative to Gold (raise the POG)

You have to remember that gosverments do not like the price of gold increasing: it highlights the weakness of their fiat and failed policies. As such, a massive bubble similar to the NASDAQ/housing is unlikely as it will go against the gosverments will (I am not saying it is impossible here, but certainly more difficult to achieve).

[karim0028]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

Ah but karim0028, there are few more "hopefully invested" in PM than me (ok Jtabeb maybe).

I sincerely hope Gold does not hit $5,000+/oz and wish CBs would raise rates immediately to at least the level prescribed under the Taylor Rule as they are causing untold damage. Though luck I guess.

We are but a few in a herd of many....

[LargoWinch]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

Do you have a link to the current Taylor rule recommendations? I could only find one from Jan 2009, but we are essentially in the same economic territory now. At that time, the Taylor was recommending negative interest rates (-6%). I would imagine that the recommendation would not have changed much.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/200...ound-blogging/

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3590[/ATTACH]

ViC78, I read recently (can't remember where) that the Taylor rule is now indicating around +3.5%.

I would like to point out however, that the Taylor rule as per your graph never turned negative since the light gray line is not actual but it is a "GS forecast beyond 2008Q4". Having said that, if the Taylor rule indeed showed a negative rate a some point, than I retract my previous statement as I do believe that in no event interest rates should dip below "0%".

Perhaps a better statement would be that the i-rates should follow John Williams' SGS (1990) [or member bart's equivalent data], which is now just over 4%.

[ViC78]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

Ah but karim0028, there are few more "hopefully invested" in PM than me (ok Jtabeb maybe).

I sincerely hope Gold does not hit $5,000+/oz and wish CBs would raise rates immediately to at least the level prescribed under the Taylor Rule as they are causing untold damage. Though luck I guess.

Do you have a link to the current Taylor rule recommendations? I could only find one from Jan 2009, but we are essentially in the same economic territory now. At that time, the Taylor was recommending negative interest rates (-6%). I would imagine that the recommendation would not have changed much.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/200...ound-blogging/

taylor.png

[LargoWinch]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

Ah but karim0028, there are few more "hopefully invested" in PM than me (ok Jtabeb maybe).

I sincerely hope Gold does not hit $5,000+/oz and wish CBs would raise rates immediately to at least the level prescribed under the Taylor Rule as they are causing untold damage. Though luck I guess.

[karim0028]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

EJ, said that iTulip is about to team-up with Twin Focus Capital Partners in order to follow the thesis laid out in his latest book (see here for more details). Now, after reading the book, and based on past comments by EJ, it is my belief that Peak Cheap Oil is one important investment theme part of a future iTulip strategy.



You have to remember that gosverments do not like the price of gold increasing: it highlights the weakness of their fiat and failed policies. As such, a massive bubble similar to the NASDAQ/housing is unlikely as it will go against the gosverments will (I am not saying it is impossible here, but certainly more difficult to achieve).




I do not mind them, but the fact that they are animated make them stand out more than I wish for. It understates the written comment for flash sometimes. Perhaps we could also re-introduce the old "non-animated" ones along with the new ones?

So is this Twin Focus Capital Partners project going to be something listed on an exchange? How can itulipers get in on it?

Also, with regard to gold, in 1980 it was also against govt actions then, that didnt stop it from going from 35 to 850 over that decade (~25x).... My bet is that they will try and keep the price down, and will fail and then most likely resort to taxing the shit out of gold sales to discourage US gold purchases/sales, but as far as outside the US, they cant control markets outside the US....

I know i must sound like a gold bug, i really am not Based on how little people i know that own gold and just looking at past price action as i am sure traders out there can see the price action from 30 years ago, just as well as i can.... I just cant find a bull market that ends with only 9x (from 275-2500) gains, usually they range from 14-24x gains from top to bottom... And gold is mostly greed, fear, supply and demand vs the dollar and if the dollar does lose about 50% of its value (going from 80 to 50-40 on /DX) that alone will most likely get you to 2500 (from 1275, that is 2x; ie 50% devaluation in dollar is a 100% increase in gold from here), then you get the retail folks coming in (gold is now on the news, "dollar collapse armageddon", oil price shock (oil possibly doubling based on weaker dollar), fear that the US will collapse, etc) after seeing the price go up 9x from bottom and take it up another blow off top...

I have been practically begging people to buy gold, and till now i dont know anyone who has bought aside from two indians i know, and when i forced my sister to buy the last time we were overseas....

[LargoWinch]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

What do you mean oil? Please elaborate...

EJ, said that iTulip is about to team-up with Twin Focus Capital Partners in order to follow the thesis laid out in his latest book (see here for more details). Now, after reading the book, and based on past comments by EJ, it is my belief that Peak Cheap Oil is one important investment theme part of a future iTulip strategy.

I also think EJ is being conservative w/ his target for gold, looking at the 1981 past gold price action as some sort of guide, it jumped quite a bit and very fast, i wonder if there is any rush more alluring than a gold rush

You have to remember that gosverments do not like the price of gold increasing: it highlights the weakness of their fiat and failed policies. As such, a massive bubble similar to the NASDAQ/housing is unlikely as it will go against the gosverments will (I am not saying it is impossible here, but certainly more difficult to achieve).

BTW, i hate these new emoticons, they are so damn cheesy...

I do not mind them, but the fact that they are animated make them stand out more than I wish for. It understates the written comment for flash sometimes. Perhaps we could also re-introduce the old "non-animated" ones along with the new ones?

[EricPhan]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

We upped that allocation to 30% in early 2008 for an additional six reasons:

Actually early 2009 per Road to Ruin: Final Stretch article

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

We upped that allocation to 30% in early 2008 for an additional six reasons:

I like your reasons (more than I choose to explain here.) Good stuff.

(Probably two year old stuff, but I don't have the memory of past iTulip postings that some people do around here ;)

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

My conspiracy theory is that The Powers That Be don't want us to get all excited about buying gold.

Quoting the remarks of Soros given above in EJ's opening article:

“Gold is the only actual bull market currently. It just made a new high yesterday. In the present circumstances that may continue,” he said at a Thomson Reuters Newsmaker event.

“I called gold the ultimate bubble, which means it may go higher. But it’s certainly not safe and it’s not going to last forever,” he said.

According to Reuters, Soros also said that “after asset classes set new highs there are almost always immediate reversals that disappoint investors.”

This is yet more evidence that The Powers That Be are not eager to start a gold rush at present.

Soros plays in the big leagues. When he makes a public statement that he knows full well will gain attention, he is flowing with The Powers That Be, not against them.

Here he is talking down the price of gold, scaring off the small investor. He is certainly not looking out for the small investor's best interests.

This is more good news, if you own gold.

[karim0028]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

[B] causes [A].

The question is what causes [A]. Why has the main stream media quit discussing gold frequently in its financial updates? Up until perhaps the mid 1990's, I recall the price of gold was frequently quoted along with the price of the S&P-500 and the key headlines of the day.

My conspiracy theory is that The Powers That Be don't want us to get all excited about buying gold. They want us rather to accept the Dollar as the bedrock of the world's monetary system.

For once, my conspiracy theorizing has nice implications, for those of us well vested in gold.

Yes, which makes me believe this bull market still has a lot more legs, doubling from the old 1980 high is not a spectacular end to a bull market... Its like the dow going from 500 to 2000, woohoo, what a bull market.... Almost every bull market chart you can look up goes up ~ 14 fold from top to bottom (that would be about 3850) and the last gold bull went up about 25x from top to bottom and im wondering why this would be any different...

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

[A] I am still amazed at how few people still own gold for investment/insurance purposes...

... [B]Practically the only commentary you see on CNBS with regard to gold are still treated like idiots & doomers

[B] causes [A].

The question is what causes [A]. Why has the main stream media quit discussing gold frequently in its financial updates? Up until perhaps the mid 1990's, I recall the price of gold was frequently quoted along with the price of the S&P-500 and the key headlines of the day.

My conspiracy theory is that The Powers That Be don't want us to get all excited about buying gold. They want us rather to accept the Dollar as the bedrock of the world's monetary system.

For once, my conspiracy theorizing has nice implications, for those of us well vested in gold.

[karim0028]

Re: A bull market in amateur gold commentary

most blow-off tops are driven by greed. the blow-off top in gold will be driven as much or more by fear. very potent.

Yup, and when you look at the implications as EJ mentions above its hard to believe the gold will stop at only 2500.00.... If a new monetary order comes into place w/ the dollar taking a much lower value; how do you value the new system against all the dollars in circulation? I am still attempting to rationalize it.. There has to be essentially a devaluation (not official, since we are no longer pegged), dollar loses value against something, and now everybody wants to devalue their currency, somethings got to give and when the fear and rhetoric kicks in that will most likely be the blow off top...

I am still amazed at how few people still own gold for investment/insurance purposes, i know of two people in my real world that own gold, and both are indians, one owns physical and told me that he is a "Patel" and that is what he feels comfortable saving in.... The other an indian as well, who holds gold through GLD.... The rest seem to be absolutely clueless...

I told a friend of mine two years ago at 800.00 and instead of buying gold he recently went and bought a house bc it "got a lot cheaper"... Practically the only commentary you see on CNBS with regard to gold are still treated like idiots & doomers (essentially schiff) & you have Ben Stein telling folks if they buy gold they will be sorry....