Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy - Eric Janszen

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

And there you have it Hugh, in a (very hard!) nutshell. Make that a Macadamia nut.

Meanwhile, over in technical analyst navel gazer's land - some useless "positional awareness" for prospective long term investors mulling plain old buys or sells (Clive Maund - English Tech Analyst - Diplomate of Int. Soc. Tech Analysts):

It don't hold a patch on iTulip, that's for darned sure. But useless? I'd say Mr. Maund was getting the bum's rush, being referred to as useless.

GOLD_TECH_ANALYSIS_ON_02-12-09.jpg

SILVER_TECH_ANALYSIS_ON_02-12-09.jpg

[FRED]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

The strong run-up in gold's price recently has me thinking it will take a breather soon before going back above $1000. I'm looking for it to drop back to around $820. If it does, I will buy more then.

I am basing this on Elliot Wave Theory which I have recently started following. It looks like gold is about to complete the fifth wave of an upward impulse, with a correction to follow.

I'd be interested to hear from some more experienced technical analysts on gold's current price.

For the record, our policy is so strongly anti-technical analysis (TA) that we have spurned no fewer 50 attempts over the last two years by Elliot Wave and others to resell their products and services, despite a persistent and well organized marketing and sales effort, and by conservative estimates we forgone at least one hundred thousand dollars in revenue by sticking to this policy.

We are pro-investing and anti-gambling, that is, against trading except for the occasional foray into a short when it's particularly tempting, because it appears to us that the majority have it wrong. And then we call it what it is, speculation; we never call it investing.

We have the same attitude about trading based on TA as we have toward casino gambling and state lotteries. We are equal opportunity bashers of schemes designed to seperate people from their money based on marketing that selectively presents the product's or service's performance, usually by marketing to the classic gambling mentality which is deeply embedded in American culture, and many Asian cultures, too.

The gambling mind is anti-statistical, and we all have one. The gambler loses, loses, loses, wins, loses, loses, wins, loses, wins, loses, loses, loses, wins, and so on. But when the gambling mind thinks back on it, it remembers the series this way: win, win, win, win, lose, win, win -- that is, that the whole string of bets netted out to a win, when statistically that is not possible. Always the gambler discounts indirect costs, such as transaction fees, but especially their time.

It is easy to debunk technical analysis. All you have to do is collect a series of forecasts that were based on technical analysis and compare them to actual results. It's surprising how few people bother, but such is human nature and the dogged determination of the gambling mind to accept the fantasy that they can beat the odds.

We recommend instead of trading that readers buy Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets and read it.

We make about ten cents every time a member buys the book, by the way. Not as good as the hundreds of dollars we'd make selling trading junk, but that's the difference between what you can make on get rich quick schemes versus cold, hard reality. There's short money in the former, but we are betting that in the long run we'll do better by sticking to the latter.

[charliebrown]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

when my kid would not go to sleep last night, I had some time to reflect on what I wrote. OK, i was too harsh on timmie. even though he made some bad decisions he is a well connected insider and is treasury secretary. I am still J6P.

[santafe2]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

The strong run-up in gold's price recently has me thinking it will take a breather soon before going back above $1000. I'm looking for it to drop back to around $820. If it does, I will buy more then.

I am basing this on Elliot Wave Theory which I have recently started following. It looks like gold is about to complete the fifth wave of an upward impulse, with a correction to follow.

I'd be interested to hear from some more experienced technical analysts on gold's current price.

Here's some advice from a much better investor than I. Benjamin Graham offers the following: "The speculator's primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor's primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices."

I've found this to be very solid advice. Before you buy gold decide if you are a speculator, (trader in today's terms), or an investor. Once you do that you'll clearly understand if you should start scaling into gold today or wait to time the market.

If you're approaching EWT from a mathmatical point-of-view, I'll be interested to know what you think of it a couple of years from now. You should also check out Gann Cycles and Fibonacci Numbers to ensure you get through these as quickly as possible. I'm not saying these are not enjoyable, like a crossword puzzle for word geeks, just that they may not be the straightest path to successful investing.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

I'll note for the record that the Euro now has one more country in the fold, lending credence to the notion that this world wide economic takedown is going to result in a consolidation of world currencies (NWO theory).

Having watched Germany build an impressive economy upon a strong Deutschmark and then hold it there for decades while Sterling dropped away, I find myself inclined to believe that the Euro will follow the same course and do everything it can to prevent devaluation. But that instinct is trammelled by the idea afloat here on iTulip that the way forward just might involve a sudden, no prior warning, devaluation of the $US, which in turn would automatically precipitate a similar drop for Sterling.

And, for that matter, is that why our Chancellor has announced that his next budget will not be before April 22nd?

So the parallel point to ponder is will the Euro follow everyone else down and if not why not?

[metalman]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

I'm always impressed with the analysis done at iTulip, but there seems to be this idea that the government is somehow this homogeneous entity that you can anticipate will either do the right or wrong thing. The government is a whirlpool of conflicting opinions, with departments within departments taking actions in conflict within their parent departments, and all engaged in some Darwinian attempt to survive the extremes of the budget process and evolve into something that can stand the test of time.

The idea that you can invest in the government, either long or short, seems a bit peculiar. If investing in the stock market is playing in traffic, than investing in the government is like getting a job at the Olympics as a javelin catcher.

you're missing the point, toast. 'long' gov't means it is...

- shrinking
- spending less
- crowding out private investment less
- employing fewer people
- not increasing public debt
- not subsidizing the fire econ at the expense of production

when those things are going in, you gotta be short gov't.

Government and Service Jobs for All!

The latest payroll employment numbers came out today and they are not pretty. Unemployment has picked up over the past seven months. As usual, before we dig deeper into the Labor Department's numbers to see where jobs were lost and gained, first we unfurl the United Banana Republic of America (UBRA) flag because, once again, the big winner in job growth is in government.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

So, I remain long gold and short government.

I'm always impressed with the analysis done at iTulip, but there seems to be this idea that the government is somehow this homogeneous entity that you can anticipate will either do the right or wrong thing. The government is a whirlpool of conflicting opinions, with departments within departments taking actions in conflict within their parent departments, and all engaged in some Darwinian attempt to survive the extremes of the budget process and evolve into something that can stand the test of time.

The idea that you can invest in the government, either long or short, seems a bit peculiar. If investing in the stock market is playing in traffic, than investing in the government is like getting a job at the Olympics as a javelin catcher.

[skidder]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

I'll note for the record that the Euro now has one more country in the fold, lending credence to the notion that this world wide economic takedown is going to result in a consolidation of world currencies (NWO theory).

[petertribo]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

Congrats that you did some research and investigation into the finances of this important Appointee. This is what the Senate had the power to do but did not. Just like it has ignored everything else leading to this Depression.

And maybe soon, Timmie can get a CRAMDOWN, where a politically appointed Federal Judge or Magistrate Judge can force a highly favorable adjustment to his Mortgage. CRAMDOWNS will put your Senator, Congressperson, and other well connected Officials into the Federal Courts to wield their Influence Magic there in favor of those filling the political coffers. CRAM ME DOWN PLEASE!

Looks kinda fishy too that Senator Gregg accepted a nomination and then backed out. Tax, other problems might have been revealed if scrutinized. Maybe he saw a Daschle Moment. Scrutiny he will not now undergo by continuing as a Senator. Senator Gregg even done in by his own GOP?

The Mainstream Media does not even ask.

[BK]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

Geithner doesn't feel your pain - he doesn't care a rats @$%@ about anyone except for himself/his family. He will use his office to improve his Political Career in order to pay off his Adjustable Rate Million Dollar Mortgage.


If the US is turned into a third world economy he won't care because he'll have a secure Federal Government Job- with a Pension and Healthcare and you'll be fighting for your economic survival -
WAKE UP!

[FRED]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

Seems to me that Geithner's mortgage situation should be just one more data point validating the iTulip thesis that the outcome of all this is going to be...inflation. Certainly Tim will do his part. It's in his interest to do so, non? :rolleyes:

Or he could argue that some of his mortgage should be forgiven because it reflects asset price inflation that the Fed helped manufactured with 1% interest rates, non-enforcement of banking regulations, turning a blind eye to mortgage fraud, allowing a free-for-all in the CDS markets, endorsing fraudulent theories like Value at Risk, allowing securitization to be used with 100 to one leverage, goosing the market government loan guarantees via GSEs and tax subsidies, and on and on. "Debt foregiveness" is a big term these days. It means chasing all the little, bitty bits of morgage bonds down all over the plant.

Credit Risk Pollution: once the molecules are in the ocean, it's tought to get them all back out again.

Even if this were feasible, suggesting all of this is not a good career move for Timmy. Maybe inflation is a more probable outcome. :mad:

[GRG55]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

That is a good point. Ideally the Treasury Secretary is not ultra-wealthy and out of touch, and also shows that he knows how to manage household finances prudently.

Seems to me that Geithner's mortgage situation should be just one more data point validating the iTulip thesis that the outcome of all this is going to be...inflation. Certainly Tim will do his part. It's in his interest to do so, non? :rolleyes:

[metalman]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

According to Kitco, on 24 October 2008, London AM Fix was 692.50, PM Fix was 712.50.

lowest spot on the tic? daily close? weekly average? monthly average? he doesn't say. question is... if you bought at $780 and gold fell to $700 before heading to $940 today, how'd you feel? better than if you waited for $700 and it fell to $500? better than the die hard deflationists who are still waiting for $650 to come around any day now?

no one ever calls a perfect bottom, except mega... but then we're not talking about gold in that case.

[drhilarius]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

No big surprise... Timmy believes that central bankers are gods who have vanquished inflation forever... so why wouldn't he get an ARM? He thinks that rates could never possibly rise with such geniuses at the monetary helm...

[Mega]

Re: Timmy Geithner the debt serf: Out of the pan and into the FIRE Economy

What makes you think that Geithner is not one of the Eilte? He wouldn't be Treasury Secretary if he wasn't.

From Wikipedia:

Geithner was born in Brooklyn, New York, USA.^[4] His father, Peter F. Geithner, is the director of the Asia program at the Ford Foundation in New York. During the early 1980s, Peter Geithner oversaw the Ford Foundation's microfinance programs in Indonesia being developed by Ann Dunham-Soetoro, mother of President Barack Obama, and they met in person at least once.^[5] Timothy Geithner's mother, Deborah Moore Geithner, is a pianist and piano teacher in Larchmont, New York where his parents currently reside. Geithner's maternal grandfather, Charles F. Moore, was an adviser to President Dwight D. Eisenhower and served as a vice president of Ford Motor Company.

Yes, nice notice how these fuckers all KNOW each other, and they love to help the likes of Indonesia:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTbdnNgqfs8

This is how the American Empire operated, & now its almost DEAD!
Mike