The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

[touchring]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

I can't see how that strategy would work.
Oil is higly fungible and the market network would redistribute the supplies for no net change.

if that were the case, why iraq war?

[beachgirl]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Will someone define the "ka" and the "Poom" in simple terms i.e. prices going up or down ? Thanks

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

I can't see how that strategy would work.
Oil is higly fungible and the market network would redistribute the supplies for no net change.

[touchring]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Reading all this is making me wary... Oil is our 'silver', and China's for that matter. Seems like any interruption in the regular flow of oil out of the gulf region could begin a SHTF event.

Iran having the nuclear bomb will scare the shit out of the Gulf states not to sell oil to the Americans? If so, the day is very near.

[vt]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

EJ, you said within the last few months that you foresaw a Dow as high as 11,000 then falling to as low as 7,000 to 8,000 by the end of 2010. Do you still see this range?

[DToM67]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Lets not forget about the Spanish Empire of 1500-1600 (approx ?) - a very powerful Navy that once ruled the seas - the empire became addicted to silver from the 'New World". The 'printing press' for the Spanish Monarchs was the Silver found in the 'New World'. The Business of the Empire would come to a stand still when deliveries of Silver were interrupted by Pirates - encouraging Pirating became an important strategy for Spain's enemy England.
Massive global Military might has through out the ages required great wealth or a Printing Press. Neither strategy works forever......

the same how certain countries are encouraging terrorists to curb american influence. who are supporting Iran, the Talibans?

...The way a US version of such a crisis will happen... is that an external event occurs that triggers a recession. In the case of Argentina in 2000 that triggered the 2001 crisis it was technology bubble crash in the US, Argentina's largest creditor via the IMF, and the recession that followed. At the same time foreign lending dried up, the recession shrank GDP relative to already high debt levels, pushing the ratio past the threshold...

In our case, a crash in China that both takes away a source of lending to finance US government expenditure and leads to a new US recession might trigger a "Argentina Ka-Poom with US Characteristics." Another possibility that I go into in detail in The Postcatastrophe Economy: Rebuilding America and Avoiding the Next Bubble is a recession triggered by the next Peap Cheap Oil Cycle. The event will be preceded by a reversal of net capital inflows. If they reverse for two quarters in a row, we can expect a crash that makes 1987 look like a cocktail party. That's why we watch them through our contacts like a hawk. The quarterly data are reported too late to act on.

Reading all this is making me wary... Oil is our 'silver', and China's for that matter. Seems like any interruption in the regular flow of oil out of the gulf region could begin a SHTF event.

[touchring]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Eric
How long?
How long until it becomes a run-a-way unstopable process?
What will China's reaction be?

Cheers
Mike

China will be busy building weapons and preparing for war to take back Asia.

[lsa420]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Eric
How long?
How long until it becomes a run-a-way unstopable process?
What will China's reaction be?

Cheers
Mike

1 year and 47 days from now. Not now. Right now.

[Mega]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Eric
How long?
How long until it becomes a run-a-way unstopable process?
What will China's reaction be?

Cheers
Mike

[magicvent]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Thank you for the great explanation

[sishya]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

We may be approaching the end of the second bounce as the election arrives. The consensus among traders and money managers I know is that everyone is lining up to buy after the November election because stocks "always go up" after mid-term elections. But we also know that there are enough traders who understand this post-election herd mentality of fund managers that there are many traders to get on the other side of it. That makes shorting the post-election market hazardous, as does going long. So we're going to sit it out.

EJ, Thanks for your articles. Great objective analysis with no political leaning, though I started leaning left(monetary only) since the start of the Fin Crisis.
But I think it will be a great point to start shorting Stocks and Dollar combo, in Dec 2010, I could be wrong but I will watch and decide then if there was a huge run up.
Also Capital gains tax is going up starting next year.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Even as we get into record nominal prices, in the last couple of months I have heard not a single well reasoned critique for being in Gold.

American Liberals/Dems, because of the whole Glenn Beck / Goldline / Anthony Weiner event, delight in ridiculing gold speculators/investors. Even Stewart and Colbert have gotten in on the ridicule.

If any of them have money to invest, it won't ever be going into metals.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

They need a new mechanism to fund the overhanging pile of debt.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

The banking lobby has effectively engaging conservatives in the cause of securing their assets.

"...any attempts to reduce the influence of F.I.R.E., either by a new political party or any other entity are going to come under massive attacks by Joe Six Pack Republicans." 08-24-09 09:10 AM

[touchring]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Lets not forget about the Spanish Empire of 1500-1600 (approx ?) - a very powerful Navy that once ruled the seas - the empire became addicted to silver from the 'New World". The 'printing press' for the Spanish Monarchs was the Silver found in the 'New World'. The Business of the Empire would come to a stand still when deliveries of Silver were interrupted by Pirates - encouraging Pirating became an important strategy for Spain's enemy England.
Massive global Military might has through out the ages required great wealth or a Printing Press. Neither strategy works forever......

the same how certain countries are encouraging terrorists to curb american influence. who are supporting Iran, the Talibans?