Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

[bart]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I want to study macro-economics in depth, where do I start? Thanks.

I wish I had a straight and simple answer.

There are large differences in the major schools - Austrian, Keynes, Friedman and the Chicago school - and all of them have significant shortcomings. And then there's the political and vested interest and spin influences on the basic concepts, the largest of which revolves around what inflation is, how its defined and what causes it.

A visit to a library or large book store or both is probably the best overall idea, and look for books that make sense to you personally. A glossary like iTulip's or mine is also invaluable - the terminology can get quite messy.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I want to study macro-economics in depth, where do I start? Thanks.

Follow the current financial collapse closely. After a few years, you will know much about macro economics.

[skyson]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Invest in educating yourself more.

I want to study macro-economics in depth, where do I start? Thanks.

[bart]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I pulled out of the stock market at the right time (early '08). I didn't buy PMs because they had already shot up by the time I started looking into them. No big loss. After the crash (fall '08) I put a small fraction of money into commodities. They did extremely (40% well) but I put such a small amount of money it didn't really do much overall.

I've missed out on the ~20% rally since the mega crash. Which is fine by me because I also missed out on the ~-42% dip. I'm leery about putting money into the market due to the DOW-3000 nutts. My gut tells me to wait until summer '09 earnings reports which should result in a pull back before buying commodities and blue chips? I don't want to buy gold, if anything I would buy platinum.

Looking for retard simple constructive criticism.

1. Lots of folk did worse, give yourself an atta-boy or two.
2. On a regular basis - add to winners, drop losers.
3. Consider your dollar exposure risk to a "currency event".
4. Invest in educating yourself more.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Looking for retard simple constructive criticism.

Unfortunately for your request, it seems to me that we here on the iTulip forums don't do much of that. Rather we react, usually favorably and sometimes with significant added detail and insight, to the long term analysis of the economic situation by the forum's owners and a few other fine contributors. We also jaw and jab and throw in less related comments -- got to season up the mix.

[NFN_NLN]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I pulled out of the stock market at the right time (early '08). I didn't buy PMs because they had already shot up by the time I started looking into them. No big loss. After the crash (fall '08) I put a small fraction of money into commodities. They did extremely (40% well) but I put such a small amount of money it didn't really do much overall.

I've missed out on the ~20% rally since the mega crash. Which is fine by me because I also missed out on the ~-42% dip. I'm leery about putting money into the market due to the DOW-3000 nutts. My gut tells me to wait until summer '09 earnings reports which should result in a pull back before buying commodities and blue chips? I don't want to buy gold, if anything I would buy platinum.

Looking for retard simple constructive criticism.

[metalman]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Hmmm ... I got no reply yet from FRED at my question on the disinflation issue.

Thanks anyway for the new title and the avatar. I'm just curious if the gift was due to making fun of metalman or for not being convinced about the disinflation theory, the TIPS graphical theory, the Dollar Ratchet theory or the Peak Cheap Oil theory

Someone must been very frustrated and out of arguments to resort to such juvenile admin humor....

Do I have any chance to get a reply if the official position is that we are still experiencing disinflation?

ha ha! great avatar, symbols. you request it? i now respect your sense of humor about yourself. damn cool. maybe i was wrong about you.

ej's latest is a transition between disinflation/deflation and inflation... dollar leveling off. last week the fed failed to keep the 10 yr below the magic 3%. how come?

china canceled usa's credit card?

bond market not buying the low inflation bs already? time for the ben to make another dire speech about deflation, no?

peak cheap oil... still on. peak cheap + demand crash = $51 vs $10 today.

dollar ratchet... that's why the dollar didn't crash ala schiff. do his clients have any money left to benefit when the dollar hits 40?

what's the 'tips graphical theory'? :confused:

[Supercilious]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Hmmm ... I got no reply yet from FRED at my question on the disinflation issue.

Thanks anyway for the new title and the avatar. I'm just curious if the gift was due to making fun of metalman or for not being convinced about the disinflation theory, the TIPS graphical theory, the Dollar Ratchet theory or the Peak Cheap Oil theory

Someone must been very frustrated and out of arguments to resort to such juvenile admin humor....

Do I have any chance to get a reply if the official position is that we are still experiencing disinflation?

[occdude]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Deflation, inflation, dollar devaluation inflation. With dollar printing and the fact that the dollar is the international reserve currency, you should see inflation kick up in places outside the country with large dollar reserves, namely China and oil producing nations.

This will force them to ask for more dollars and will lead to inflation in the US and possibly a currency crisis. The episode before the deflationary period in the fall of 08, with increased oil prices and a relatively mild bout of inflation will rear its ugly head again this summer. The government will be forced by our creditors to adopt more fiscal discipline which will lead to a renewed deflationary period.

Look for the inflationary-deflationary cycles to get more extreme until they meet with gold being the representative of inflation and the stock market representing deflation Cycles should last roughly 6mos a piece with periods like the one at current, that seem normal as one force subsides and the other kicks in.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Ok - that makes more sense. Thanks.

Perhaps "they" did the same thing with the stock market over the last few months. First cram it down so that they could (1) steal a couple trillion of freshly minted money without upsetting us too much, and (2) then be able to start pushing it up and get us believing that "the bottom is in baby."

[WildspitzE]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Drat. Yeah, I suppose that sentence was out of place. But it was still intriguing. I was still hoping you could explain why you thought "they" might want to manage our unemployment expectations upward (more jobless for longer).

Well, let's throw some ideas against the wall.

(A) If one wants to temper the size of the inflation premium that is a component of bond yields (particularly corporate debt that isn't helped by QE), one may want to keep hammering at the existence of continued deflationary loops, e.g. unemployment.

(B) If one wants [to continue] to promote inflation, and temper the possibility that people completely lose faith in the currency [after massive intervention], one may want to make everybody believe that deflation is alive and well. Conversely, if one wants to promote deflation, one may want to make everybody believe that inflation is a problem.

(C) If one is trying to make a bullish case for the stock market, and one wants people to ignore that pesky economic reality, I can think of a few examples:

(1) under promise and over deliver - the end of employment in america is around the corner! hey, look, we "only lost" 630K. Whew, I expected 800K; or

(2) the market has accurate foresight, and in the past unemployment doesn't recover until the economy has recovered, and way past the stock market bottom -- ignore the unemployment figures, focus on this other data over here, the bottom is in baby.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I should erase that sentence as it is rather out of place in the stream of consciousness that I had while writing, I was trying to highlight an example of the massive amount of expectations management that is going on - one way or the other.

Drat. Yeah, I suppose that sentence was out of place. But it was still intriguing. I was still hoping you could explain why you thought "they" might want to manage our unemployment expectations upward (more jobless for longer).

[WildspitzE]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

What are you suggesting here? Why would the Powers That Be want to frighten us with expectations of high unemployment?

I'm not doubting that they would do this ... I'm just missing the motivation in this case.

I should erase that sentence as it is rather out of place in the stream of consciousness that I had while writing, I was trying to highlight an example of the massive amount of expectations management that is going on - one way or the other.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Have you also noticed how it's being beaten into the public consciousness that unemployment will continue to be ugly way past the recession?

What are you suggesting here? Why would the Powers That Be want to frighten us with expectations of high unemployment?

I'm not doubting that they would do this ... I'm just missing the motivation in this case.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

One more thing; if the Federal Reserve does not re-engage into buying the 10 and 30 year bonds within the next 30 days and allows the yields to accelerate to the upside the ARM reset disaster will accelerate into the fall and any pretense of a recovery will fail in 2009. Thus I think they will execute a dual course of action with a massive bond purchase program once yields approach 3.50% on the 10 and a devaluation, stealth as it might seem, of the USD to fire up the export sector again.

Failure to do so will only magnify the unemployment situation and exponentially expand the bankruptcies we are soon to experiencing in all aspects of the construction and construction supply sectors of the economy.

It is truly, inflate or die.

A large part of the Fed game is expectation management. The current rally on risk, whether it's based on perception and/or actual stimulus, if it goes unchecked, may potentially create enough momentum to override the Fed's limits for QE (alone) in the QE poker game.

The more effective means of curtailing Rf yields would be to re-instill a little fear into any weak sisters, whether through perception (negative or continued bleak commentary) or by diminishing the stimulus to pull back on the reigns of risk taking.

Perhaps, this is why the stress tests are being delayed, and why "what will be released" is still being debated. It also gives the institutions enough time to complete any capital raising efforts, as well as position themselves to profit from any expected results. Have you also noticed how it's being beaten into the public consciousness that unemployment will continue to be ugly way past the recession?