2009 will make people yearn for 2008

[LargoWinch]

jumping to conclusions:

We believe the problems of 2009 will make people yearn for 2008 all over again. In 2008 it was only savings and assets that got pillaged. In 2009 it will be jobs and incomes that get lost. In 2008 we had the Madoff Ponzi scheme, supposedly the largest fraud in history. In 2009 we have the US dollar Ponzi scheme – no contest. But to only pick on the dollar wouldn’t be fair. As governments the world over take ever increasing roles in markets and the economy, all paper currencies will be at great risk, pillaging whatever savings people have left after 2008.

Welcome to 2009.

URL Link:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sp...ott020409.html

PDF report:
01_09 So You Think 2008 Was Bad[1].pdf

[Mega]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

..........and the GOLD price is STILL under $1000
Mike

[LargoWinch]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Mike, lets hope that gold does not go up too much, because the day we have to bribe border guards with gold, we are in a bigger mess than all of us can imagine...

[blazespinnaker]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Mike, pray lets hope that gold does not go up too much, because the day we have to bribe border guards with gold, we are in a bigger mess than all of us can imagine...

Yeah, exactly. That's the big reason I'm not a fan of gold. I have a hard time imagining how I'd be able to defend my pile from looters / roving gangs / etc.

[LargoWinch]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Yeah, exactly. That's the big reason I'm not a fan of gold.

I personaly also hate having to buy gold. But ask yourself: are the Central Banks leaving you any choice?

I have a hard time imagining how I'd be able to defend my pile from looters / roving gangs / etc.

Just ask jtabeb; our resident military expert...

[sgominator]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

...the day we have to bribe border guards with gold, we are in a bigger mess than all of us can imagine...

sort of a "Plan B" murmuring in the background of my conscious self... keep the gas tank mid to full and have an isolated place to run to, high in the alps, in a closed valley with just one road to/from it, some gold to start a new life.
Just one thing is missing, like jtabeb once pointed out: the insurance's insurance. Guns.
Just figure... all packed in the car and fleeing: "hey guy, will you fill my tank? you may have some gold or some lead in return... it's your choice...

Scary...:eek:

Pete

[Guest]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Pete - Are you in Italy? "sgominator" is Italian slang (lived there 25 years). A little hide away in the Italian Alps - now that I could get quite used to! Qualita' di vita inimitabile. And if I recall correctly, the Italians have a certain fondness for keeping a rifle or shotgun in the house. Apparently there are a lot of them, and they are quite used to "a certain amount of anarchy" - as they've been dealing with the (slightly toned down) civic version of anarchy for 60-70 years? Altogether sounds like a delightful place to wait out "fiscal and financial armageddon".

sort of a "Plan B" murmuring in the background of my conscious self... keep the gas tank mid to full and have an isolated place to run to, high in the alps, in a closed valley with just one road to/from it, some gold to start a new life.
Just one thing is missing, like jtabeb once pointed out: the insurance's insurance. Guns.
Just figure... all packed in the car and fleeing: "hey guy, will you fill my tank? you may have some gold or some lead in return... it's your choice...

Scary...:eek:

Pete

[metalman]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Pete - Are you in Italy? "sgominator" is Italian slang (lived there 25 years). A little hide away in the Italian Alps - now that I could get quite used to! Qualita' di vita inimitabile. And if I recall correctly, the Italians have a certain fondness for keeping a rifle or shotgun in the house. Apparently there are a lot of them, and they are quite used to "a certain amount of anarchy" - as they've been dealing with the (slightly toned down) civic version of anarchy for 60-70 years? Altogether sounds like a delightful place to wait out "fiscal and financial armageddon".

itulip turning into a survivalist site?

[LargoWinch]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

itulip turning into a survivalist site?

only the paranoids survive?

[Fiat Currency]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

sort of a "Plan B" murmuring in the background of my conscious self... keep the gas tank mid to full and have an isolated place to run to ...
Pete

Better to stock a "bug out" trailer. For a couple grand you can have sleeping bags, tents, guns & ammo, water, extra fuel, bags of rice, canned goods, batteries, fishing gear etc. all ready to go with a simple trailer hook up.

Metalman (who I like here @ iTulip) can call us crazy survivalists or whatever he wants ... but people thought I was nuts loading up on gold and silver 8 years ago. When you have a spouse and kids, and wealth to protect - a couple $K for what I'd call "in case of anarchy" preparedness is no big deal.

I hope I never have to use it. Total time to open safes - grab gold & silver - hook up trailer - and get out of Dodge ... 5 minutes.

Besides - what else is there to invest in right now?

[ASH]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Yeah, exactly. That's the big reason I'm not a fan of gold. I have a hard time imagining how I'd be able to defend my pile from looters / roving gangs / etc.

I would think that gold's usefulness as a store of wealth and medium of exchange in bad times doesn't extend as far as a "Mad Max" level of societal disorder. However, I do think there's a level of economic dysfunction in between our present state and Mad Max in which gold would still be useful. I have a prosaic use for gold as an inflation hedge, and that's all I hope it ever is, but my plan for TEOTWAWKI is to use gold to preserve purchasing power into the early stages of a collapse. No sense going "all in" on preparations for TEOTWAWKI until the writing is actually on the wall -- otherwise you end up with eight pallets of steer manure, ready to scratch out a living on 10 dusty acres in East Bumblefrack, instead of your kid's college fund. That one is embarrassing to talk about at cocktail parties after the recovery (not that I'm ever invited to cocktail parties). But lets say there's a currency collapse and it looks like things are more likely to fall apart than muddle through... I'd say there will be a window of opportunity to spend the only "good" money left to get more of the things you're really going to need before society becomes too disorderly. Right when everyone is worrying that their money is no good, you can show up to trade money that is good for tools, livestock, fertilizer, drugs, etc. I'd bet that obvious survival gear like firearms and ammo would be hard to come by in quantity (which is why I've already got mine), but I think it likely there would still be an opportunity to buy the non-sexy, long-term stuff. That's the way I can see gold being useful if TSHTF.

As for physical security in a scenario in which law and order have broken down semi-permanently... it's much easier for a lone man or small group to ambush and attack, than to defend. One-on-one, you stand no chance if someone is planning to take you by surprise, kill you, and seize your property. If you don't know they're there, you can't defend yourself. As others have remarked in a different thread (where the Argentinian blogger's experience was discussed), you really need a community for security. You can't realistically do it alone with just a family group -- at least not a family of normal size. I'd say you need guard dogs (or geese, so I'm told) on individual homesteads to give warning at night, enough manpower to mount a roving watch, and a lot of neighbors with guns who will come running when summoned. My idle thoughts on security if TSHTF mainly concern what my buy-in to such a community will be, and how to pitch the necessary organization. Marksmanship is secondary.

[LargoWinch]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

One-on-one, you stand no chance if someone is planning to take you by surprise, kill you, and seize your property.

Don't forget ASH, that you do have the home turf advantage if attacked on your property. This has been in fact acknowledged by Ferpal (Argentina blog guy).

[strittmatter]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

As for physical security in a scenario in which law and order have broken down semi-permanently... it's much easier for a lone man or small group to ambush and attack, than to defend. One-on-one, you stand no chance if someone is planning to take you by surprise, kill you, and seize your property. If you don't know they're there, you can't defend yourself. As others have remarked in a different thread (where the Argentinian blogger's experience was discussed), you really need a community for security. You can't realistically do it alone with just a family group -- at least not a family of normal size. I'd say you need guard dogs (or geese, so I'm told) on individual homesteads to give warning at night, enough manpower to mount a roving watch, and a lot of neighbors with guns who will come running when summoned. My idle thoughts on security if TSHTF mainly concern what my buy-in to such a community will be, and how to pitch the necessary organization. Marksmanship is secondary.

Noteworthy. Probably many areas where the groundwork should already be in motion. Thinking in terms of rogue opportunist scenerios, I'm reminded of a story a friend once told me about how back in the 80's he was part owner in a new bing hall in Midland, Texas. It was a bonanza. News of this reached all the way to Vegas. Then on day, a long black caddy pulled up and two men in long black suits got out, and they wanted to talk about insurance. My friend and his group were not interested. A few nights later, the place burned to the ground.

true story.

[ASH]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Don't forget ASH, that you do have the home turf advantage if attacked on your property. This has been in fact acknowledged by Ferpal (Argentina blog guy).

Rifles are the main thing I'm worried about. I used to be able to hit a man-size target at 500 yards with an M-16 and only iron sights -- I could again with a little brush up. Home turf or no, I'm pretty sure that someone could approach close enough to surveil my homestead and kill me while I'm working in the field, without me ever seeing them. Dealing with strangers at the door is one thing, but in the type of scenario I think we're discussing, I expect to be outside laboring in the open an awful lot.

There are two strategies to deal with the long-range ambush that I can think of, and I advocate both. A dog can be your early-warning system; subject to wind direction, I'm pretty sure that a dog can smell a man beyond the range that most can shoot. A dog neutralizes the element of surprise and gives you back the home turf advantage. If you know something is there, you will no longer present an easy target. Still, I want to emphasize that numbers are important. The numbers and dispersion afforded by a community deter ambush because the battle can no longer be won in a single stroke, at little risk. However, you need a real community for credible deterence -- the sort where able-bodied men with guns come running when they hear gunshots at their neighbor's place; not the sort where they hole up in their houses individually and leave their neighbor to his fate.

[metalman]

Re: 2009 will make people yearn for 2008

Rifles are the main thing I'm worried about. I used to be able to hit a man-size target at 500 yards with an M-16 and only iron sights -- I could again with a little brush up. Home turf or no, I'm pretty sure that someone could approach close enough to surveil my homestead and kill me while I'm working in the field, without me ever seeing them. Dealing with strangers at the door is one thing, but in the type of scenario I think we're discussing, I expect to be outside laboring in the open an awful lot.

There are two strategies to deal with the long-range ambush that I can think of, and I advocate both. A dog can be your early-warning system; subject to wind direction, I'm pretty sure that a dog can smell a man beyond the range that most can shoot. A dog neutralizes the element of surprise and gives you back the home turf advantage. If you know something is there, you will no longer present an easy target. Still, I want to emphasize that numbers are important. The numbers and dispersion afforded by a community deter ambush because the battle can no longer be won in a single stroke, at little risk. However, you need a real community for credible deterence -- the sort where able-bodied men with guns come running when they hear gunshots at their neighbor's place; not the sort where they hole up in their houses individually and leave their neighbor to his fate.

you realize that when you write stuff like this you make my blood curdle? you are the most dispassionately analytical member here, and here you are calculating how to keep from getting shot while farming your own food.

what probability do you assign to the events that need to happen for the dog to come in handy? or, as you argue (and i agree) you and your neighbors turn your neighborhood into a private green zone?