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    Default U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Nation goes dark: U.S. employment picture

    Depression not recession. It really is ``different this time.''

    This animation of Bureau of Labor Statistics data depicts year over year changes in unemployment across the U.S. every month since the depression officially began in December 2007. States with falling unemployment are shown in light blue while dark blue indicates rising unemployment.

    As forecast, unemployment during this depression has since January 2009 been rising in every state in the U.S.



    If we compare that animation of unemployment data to this older one of recessions since the late 1970s we see that even at the worst part of the 1980 t0 1983 recessions unemployment fell in some states even if it was rising in most states.



    We are sticking to our forecast of 20% U3 unemployment in the U.S. by the end of 2010.

    See also:
    Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen
    Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen
    Six Questions for Eric Janszen on the Economic Collapse
    Unemployment on the rise as economic hard times continue

    iTulip Select: The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
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    Last edited by FRED; 04-22-09 at 01:23 PM.
    Ed.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Top ten as of March 2009 not seasonally adjusted

    Michigan 13.4
    Oregon 12.9
    California 11.5
    South Carolina 11.2
    Rhode Island 11.1
    North Carolina 10.9
    Indiana 10.6
    Nevada 10.5
    Kentucky 10.3
    Ohio 10.1

    Top ten as of March 2009, seasonally adjusted:

    Michigan 12.6
    Oregon 12.1
    South Carolina 11.4
    California 11.2
    North Carolina 10.8
    Rhode Island 10.5
    Nevada 10.4
    Indiana 10.0
    District of Columbia 9.8
    Kentucky 9.8

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    I'm going to redouble my efforts to discover the location of all nearby "replenishment pods" between now and then. Looks like some replenishing will be in order.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    i was kind of hoping the 20% prediction was for u6. if u3 is over 20%, then u6 will be over 30! i hope this isn't one of those terribly pessimistic itulip predictions that turns out to have been not gloomy enough. 20% for u3 is truly catastrophic. frightening.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    i was kind of hoping the 20% prediction was for u6. if u3 is over 20%, then u6 will be over 30! i hope this isn't one of those terribly pessimistic itulip predictions that turns out to have been not gloomy enough. 20% for u3 is truly catastrophic. frightening.
    In an odd way, I'd be more concerned if we didn't have massive unemployment.

    This fine nation has gotten itself a nasty debt-habit. Right now, our debt supply has been cut off and we're getting the tremors. Either we manage to kick this debt-habit (at least for the generations alive now) which will be a terrible time, or we manage to pump up the debt-bubble engine one more time, which while easier now would be worse when we finally do kick the habit.

    Pay me now or pay me later. And don't forget, I'm the Bankster (sung to the tune of the Beatle's "Taxman"), so the unpaid bill continues to accumulate interest.

    On the other hand (oh to be the One-Handed Economist, Howard Katz ;)) we'll just be kicking this can down the road either way. The feudal thugs running the world banking system (thanks to Ellen Hodgson Brown for some of those words) continue to strengthen their grasp of the worlds money, hence of its power and politics. The Panic of 2008, and the Depression of 2009++ are but more chapters in that book, the ending to which is nowhere insight.

    P.S. -- It seems to be entire bloody world that has a bad debt-habit.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    i was kind of hoping the 20% prediction was for u6. if u3 is over 20%, then u6 will be over 30! i hope this isn't one of those terribly pessimistic itulip predictions that turns out to have been not gloomy enough. 20% for u3 is truly catastrophic. frightening.
    I was thinking the same.

    How does it compare to historic examples ? And what are the numbers in millions for the US, is the Labor Force really 150 million or is the gov. working with other numbers for U6?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...y_labour_force


    Weimar had 30% with nearly 6 million unemployed
    Unemployment figures rose from 1.39 million / 8.4 % to 1.89 million / 13.1 % in 1929, 3.07 million / 15.3 % in 1930, 4.52 million / 23.3 % in 1931, 5.57 million / 30.1 % in 1932


    ...

    Demography . J. Lahmeyer gives Germany's population for 1929 as 64.7 million, that of 1933 as 66.0 million.
    http://www.zum.de/whkmla/region/germany/wr19291932.html

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    i was kind of hoping the 20% prediction was for u6.
    Using the pre-Clinton methodology for calculating the numbers, U-6 is already close to 20%.

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by MLM View Post
    I'm going to redouble my efforts to discover the location of all nearby "replenishment pods" between now and then. Looks like some replenishing will be in order.
    Would you mind explaining to this ignorant bloke - what's a "replenishment pod"? The only Google hit I got was for a Cuisinart prepackaged coffee pod.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    An interactive map of vanishing employment across the US. Sad and scary...



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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
    Would you mind explaining to this ignorant bloke - what's a "replenishment pod"? The only Google hit I got was for a Cuisinart prepackaged coffee pod.
    I may be an ignorant bloke too, but I think that was a joke, something that exists in video games.

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    Wink Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
    Would you mind explaining to this ignorant bloke - what's a "replenishment pod"? The only Google hit I got was for a Cuisinart prepackaged coffee pod.
    It is a takeoff on video games. Replenishment pods are "bunkers" stocked with food and weapons. If we get to 20% unemployment, we'll be about one National Guard callup from a Mad Max scenario. In which case knowing where the food and weapons are stored could be quite helpful.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by FRED View Post
    We are sticking to our forecast of 20% U3 unemployment in the U.S. by the end of 2010.
    Is that possible Fred or am I just math challenged today? We're currently at an average of 8.5% unemployment in the US, up 5.1 million since the beginning of the downturn. For that 20% prediction to come true we'll have to see a minimum of an additional 17.6 million unemployed over the next 20 months or an average of ~880,000 additional unemployed each month. I'm assuming a workforce of 153 million.

    And the above numbers assume no one currently on the U3 list, or added to the U3 list over the next 20 months becomes discouraged or takes a part time Mc-job. And the U6 rate, the real unemployment rate might be 40% if the U3:U6 ratio stay the same.

    I must be counting wrong....right?

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
    Is that possible Fred or am I just math challenged today? We're currently at an average of 8.5% unemployment in the US, up 5.1 million since the beginning of the downturn. For that 20% prediction to come true we'll have to see a minimum of an additional 17.6 million unemployed over the next 20 months or an average of ~880,000 additional unemployed each month. I'm assuming a workforce of 153 million.

    And the above numbers assume no one currently on the U3 list, or added to the U3 list over the next 20 months becomes discouraged or takes a part time Mc-job. And the U6 rate, the real unemployment rate might be 40% if the U3:U6 ratio stay the same.

    I must be counting wrong....right?
    I think you're counting right. IIRC, iTulip last December was predicting run rate of about a million net new unemployed per month, and there is no reason to believe that we won't see that.

    Recovery cannot begin until the cancer is cut out (i.e. zombie banks and shareholders wiped out, toxic "assets" cleared, debt deflated). Unfortunately, the current administration has been procrastinating on taking the necessary painful steps. No net new jobs will be created until some long period after some zombies are killed, and we're not even trying to kill the zombies yet.

    Cynical people might suggest that this is A-OK with the ruling plutocrats. If they wipe out the middle class, there is nobody to challenge them for power. Mao, Pol Pot, Castro, and many other great leaders understood this important point. Most of the world's history has been typified by arrangements with a tiny ruling class and a huge underclass.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Man, Fred and his wicked sense of humor. Thanks for this one. First I laughed out loud but I was crying the second time. Good one.

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    People seem to be buying more iphones and ipods than the last depression.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p....so&refer=home

  16. #16
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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Interesting PDF here from James Hamilton (Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego)

    2009_spring_bpea_hamilton.pdf

    Hamilton Prediction.gif

    Latest article at Hamilton's Econbrowser here, some here might find it interesting-

    The Great Recession Goes Global http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/...eat_reces.html

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by goadam1 View Post
    People seem to be buying more iphones and ipods than the last depression.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p....so&refer=home
    I think those are worldwide numbers, still more than last year.

    Apple's iPod business

    Over 11.013 million iPods were sold this quarter, resulting in $1.665 billion in revenue. The sequential decrease is the single largest registered in this quarter's results, plummeting 52 percent in units and 51 percent in revenue. Compared to early 2008, however, units are up 3 percent while revenue is down slightly by 8 percent.

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...ence_call.html

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Quote Originally Posted by FRED View Post
    Nation goes dark: U.S. employment picture

    Depression not recession. It really is ``different this time.''

    This animation of Bureau of Labor Statistics data depicts year over year changes in unemployment across the U.S. every month since the depression officially began in December 2007. States with falling unemployment are shown in light blue while dark blue indicates rising unemployment.

    As forecast, unemployment during this depression has since January 2009 been rising in every state in the U.S.



    If we compare that animation of unemployment data to this older one of recessions since the late 1970s we see that even at the worst part of the 1980 t0 1983 recessions unemployment fell in some states even if it was rising in most states.



    We are sticking to our forecast of 20% U3 unemployment in the U.S. by the end of 2010.

    See also:
    Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen
    Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen
    Six Questions for Eric Janszen on the Economic Collapse
    Unemployment on the rise as economic hard times continue

    iTulip Select: The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
    __________________________________________________

    To receive the iTulip Newsletter or iTulip Alerts, Join our FREE Email Mailing List

    Copyright iTulip, Inc. 1998 - 2009 All Rights Reserved

    All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Nothing appearing on this website should be considered a recommendation to buy or to sell any security or related financial instrument. iTulip, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Full Disclaimer
    Fred you guys or girls at iTulip have become optimists, what’s up with that?

    rick

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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark


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    Default Re: U.S. employment picture: A nation goes dark

    Maybe, if the Joads had a better fico score, talf had bailed out the bonds on their credit cards, tarp had kept all the banks going, freddie mac had pushed through a refinance, President Hope had extended unemployment, then they wouldn't have had to migrate.

    Todays Joads are home with toxic dry wall and a new kitchen. They get off the couch, from watching "the biggest loser" or "Idol" and mosey to Applebee's, where they put all you can eat shrimp night on the Capitol One card (personalized with a picture of their dog).

    Go bubble!

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