He definitely seems to agree with the general iTulip thesis. In a speech yesterday, he said:

"For the past 25 years, the world has certainly enjoyed incredible, incredible global growth. Average incomes around the world grew at unprecedented rates, millions of people moved from out of poverty into the middle class for the very first time.

I think that expansion was built on three things: innovation, globalization, and debt, increasing debt...

But over time, over the last period of time, the balance has really shifted. Instead of innovation and productivity driving growth, it’s really been unsustainable levels, particularly of private debt, that have been a key driver of economic growth...

At Microsoft, we've studied these developments. We believe this is a once-in-a-lifetime economic event, but it's not unique frankly in U.S. history. The current situation looks a lot like several -- not one but several previous cycles of long-term private sector debt...

In my view, what we now have will be a fundamental economic reset. The economy is going to have to re-establish itself at a level of spending that reflects the real value of underlying assets before we can all start growing again at a healthy rate.

This may not be the thing that people really want to hear, but it's certainly what we're planning on, and it's the truth on which we're basing sort of our model, if you will, at Microsoft.


In our opinion, in order to reach the reset point, three things need to happen. First, the economy must be deleveraged. Private debt as a percentage of GDP has to be reduced. Restoring health to the nation's financial system is a fundamental part of this.


Just for historical note, not only during the Depression, but actually in 1837 and in 1873 we had similar style resets in the economy. We actually have at least three historic periods that we can study in which similar phenomenon occurred. I think it was 1873 where even the state of Florida filed for Bankruptcy. So, we need to be thoughtful about being students I think of the history..."

Full speech:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2009/2/b...economic-reset