Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

[Mega]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8564.html
& you stop can smriking Metalman, your heading up the UN Peace settment team to sort this!


Mike

[Guest]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

QUOTE: Chapter Ten of "Crash Proof" is specifically focused on the need to keep funds liquid to take advantage of the buying opportunity that would initially develop once our stock market began its collapse. I specifically mentioned that when U.S. stocks began to fall, we could expect sympathetic declines overseas. While I did not know the precise timing of those events, I advised readers to prepare.

I imagine a fair number of subscribers will be *somewhat irritated* to read this assertion. It may have been a passing mention in a book written two years ago, but it most certainly was not a prominent or evident bit of advice within his website or e-letters in the past 18 months. For all the rest of it, one cannot escape the impression Mr. Schiff reflexively understands that his likely only avenue of redress is public disclaimers, as a lawsuit here claiming injury to Euro Pac due to "false allegations" will be a tough thing to prosecute successfully.

[touchring]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

interesting, everything's a bubble in today's world.

[flintlock]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

After reading that, I'm inclined to agree with Schiff that it's going to be fodder for future "Schiff was right" videos on Youtube. At least somewhat. Short term traders always get their panties in a bunch when they can't time the market. He may not always be right, and I don't think he makes that claim, but he has been right about a lot of things. ( like gold, foreign bonds, short positions in financials, home builders and subprime mortgages, as were many others) I also think some of his seat of the pants common sense analysis rubs some economists and fellow brokers the wrong way. I mean, where are the 10 pages of charts and graphs proving his case? If the X axis doesn't cross the Y axis at point Z, then what fun is that? The aspect I like about Schiff was that he cuts through a lot of that and uses common sense. This foolishness couldn't go on forever and he knew it. Sometimes its just that simple. He was saying some things that I knew in my gut but could never express clearly.

As for his stock picks, come on, he's a stockbroker, he's got to sell something. Telling people to buy gold and bury it in the backyard is going to do nothing for his bottom line. As with ANY investment advice, you should always consider the motives of those giving it and act accordingly. My brother brought up this fact early last year and warned against reading too much into his advice in that regard. People want to criticize him but at least he was out there sounding the alarm. Thats better than the other 99% who were preaching buy and hold US stocks right up until the end.

[Mega]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

Do you know that Euro-pac's bank does NOT have an "Iban" number......therefore if your overseas you can't directly wire money to them!

Mike

[Guest]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

Flintlock -

Quote: "aspect I like about Schiff was that he cuts through a lot of that and uses common sense."

yes that is Peter Schiff's primary appeal. It is if you like, his "packaging". He has this bluntness of delivery, and the lines of reasoning appeal instantly to the man on the street because he broadcasts "I'm just using plain common sense, and all those sophisticated economists are dancing and prancing around the plain reason I'm stating".

This is very appealing and what he projects is this very adroitly packaged "breath of fresh air because it's just plain spoken common sense" sort of subliminal message. People instinctively trust that because whatever seems "unvarnished" and "without any flim flam sophisticated veneer" is a wavelength that people instinctively equate with truth, vs. falsehood.

Of course there is a lot of truth in the positions he's adopted, if not necessarily ground breaking insights. I don't even mind his bombastic self promoting side, as it really is unvarnished and never pretends to be anything than what it is (a "New York brash" sort of thing that has it's own appeal). But here's a substantive point - he's fairly inflexible.

Imagine a scenario where the USD (very unexpectedly) outperforms ALL other currencies for a couple of years (GRG posted a great article by a Canadian analyst earlier today which amply demonstrates a scenario where this can easily occur). Peter Schiff's great shortcoming will be that he stubbornly insists to his clients that a steadily rising dollar for two years or more is an "impossibility" and he'll sway them to stay locked into coordinated dollar short postures, and they will get slaughtered.

Peter is constitutionally incapable (my guess) of climbing down from his favored theses to adopt a more nuanced or even diametrically opposed strategy in those treacherous *intermission* markets when a market may go flatly against your eminently well reasoned theories for just long enough to make mincemeat of your positions. Then consider this:

They are an expensive brokerage.

Peter is a very headstrong director and will sway a lot of their clients to stick to his own viewpoints.

The market may very subtly and treacherously, go flatly against Peter's dollar short thesis for two years or more, and indeed it's showing signs of corroding most severely the positions his firm most favors, namely "conservative income generating foreign stocks". Why? Just my own viewpoint, but I think those income generating foreign stocks are going to get absolutely slaughtered in relative performance on two fronts.

A) the USD has a good shot to absolutely trounce foreign currencies over the next two years - I'm talking a 50% rise over currencies like the Aussie Dolllar or Kiwi, or even the EURO [ :eek: ], and B) because the US domestic stock indexes have a quite good shot to set on fire, and greatly outperform all foreign indexes.

There, see? Most people here will sit back in their chairs, scratch their heads and say "that's nonsense, the fundamentals suggest exactly the opposite". Peter's style is such that he's a powerful "persuader". He uses that "unvarnished common sense" style of communication which wins a lot of people over thinking "this guy is no-nonsense and sees right through to the bottom line".

Maybe he does, over the five year term - but if the above trend eventuates, many of his clients accustomed to blindly following his calls will stay parked in things like Ascendas, a Singapore REIT with wonderful fundamentals, but which in an anomalous world where the USD booms vs. all other currencies and where US stock indexes outperform all others, these clients will get pushed through one of those bologna ham slicing machines a few times over.

That's an awful lot of pain to undergo for the privilege of paying Euro-Pac 6% commissions on the buys AND the sells while following inflexible "fundamentally inspired" viewpoints. It's the bull-headed dogmatic viewpoints in Peter that scare me away. Too headstrong is not a good trait in investing, especially in markets where treacherous currents can wash the "wrong way" for several years.

He may not always be right, and I don't think he makes that claim, but he has been right about a lot of things. ... The aspect I like about Schiff was that he cuts through a lot of that and uses common sense. ... He was saying some things that I knew in my gut but could never express clearly.

[bradzepfan]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

The problem with EuroPac and their clients portfolios may be at the point of entry! And with a dose of miscommunication. When you listen to his radio interviews, Schiff usually gives well-balanced advice but when you actually talk to his various field offices they assume you are only there for stock picks. Hate to reveal myself as an economics & investing newbie (in case I hadn't already from my previous posts! LOL ) but I am a EuroPac client and suspect alot of their client contacts go down like mine did. I came to them with a certain chunk of cash, and I was expecting a well-rounded investment allocation (stocks, cash/cashequivalents, PMs, etc) but what I got was recommendations of 100% "all in" to various stocks. There was no discussion of my personal goals, etc. I was the one who had to put the brakes on and say, "wait, don't I want some cash in there in case things fall further?", etc. They certainly didn't disagree with my wishes, but they assumed much more expertise on my part than was warranted. I didn't pick up on a whiff of conspiracy or malevolence, just a big miscommunication cluster you-know-what. Perhaps this happens frequently with EuroPac clients. I posted my EuroPac holdings on a previous thread, and if I wouldn't have pushed for those foriegn cash funds I would be down 40-50% since September 08.

Now being down 40-50% isn't the end of the world, and his viewpoint could likely play out beautifully, but if I had wanted that cash back in a couple of years or so I would have been PISSED!!!!! By the way, God bless Irwin Schiff!

[deflateIT]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

Do you know that Euro-pac's bank does NOT have an "Iban" number......therefore if your overseas you can't directly wire money to them!

Mike

Europac is a US firm. IBAN has been adopted in EU.

Banks in the United States do not provide IBAN format account numbers. Any adoption of the IBAN standard by U.S. banks would likely be initiated by ANSI ASC X9, the U.S. financial services standards development organization but to date it has not done so. Hence payments to U.S. bank accounts from outside the U.S. are prone to errors of routing.

Source: Wikipedia

[flintlock]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

I think what you describe at Europac is typical of most brokerages. They are always going to try and sell you something to put money in their pockets. Nature of the beast. My uncle is a senior stockbroker and I wouldn't let him touch my money.

I'm not a customer, and didn't really take any of his investment advice other than run from the US stock market and I bought a little gold. I first ran across Schiff several years ago when my brother sent me some youtube videos of him being ridiculed by the mainstream media types. Yep, the same videos Schiff now parades as his " I told you so" stories. Frankly, I don't have enough money nor the desire to let anyone else "manage" my money. He just struck me then as someone willing to voice an unpopular opinion that made perfect sense to me( That housing was going to go bust, the dollar would lose value, etc). I know there have been other contrarians, but not that many I ever saw two years ago were willing to lay it on the line and risk being heckled on Fox news by the idiot FIRE economy shills.

I agree that he is probably inflexible in his current outlook. A lot of things have changed, and I don't think Schiff forsaw foreign stocks being dragged down to the degree they have been. He should just admit it. I just think its kind of funny watching the media try and kick him when he's down. Its obvious that its just payback for him rubbing their noses in it when his predictions came true. They way I see it, he was probably wrong about some things, but he was correct a lot more than the vast majority of the financial "analysts" out there. It was what he was saying that led me to this forum, so he can't be all bad.

[roxtar]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

As for his stock picks, come on, he's a stockbroker, he's got to sell something.

"For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.” Click here to order a copy today. "

He does..... Books!

[c1ue]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

I'm not a big fan of Schiff - or any commission based asset manager.

But I do think this attack by Mish is highly unprofessional.

If Mish were some disinterested party, it might have some slight relevance, but the fact that Mish shills for another fund makes this more than a little slimy.

From my viewpoint, this attack is a shameless self-promotion via condemnation of an opposite position.

Hopefully for Mish - Sitka doesn't suffer any losses in the near future, because this childish action means the gloves are off for him and Sitka Pacific for anyone else looking for a 'hit and run'.

[swgprop]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

If Mish were some disinterested party, it might have some slight relevance, but the fact that Mish shills for another fund makes this more than a little slimy.

Couldn't agree more, Mish dropped another notch down on the credibility ladder.

Now being down 40-50% isn't the end of the world, and his viewpoint could likely play out beautifully, but if I had wanted that cash back in a couple of years or so I would have been PISSED!!!!!

bradzepfan - I had a similar experience, I put about 8% of my total investment capital with Europac, specifically because I wanted to diversify into non dollar equities. They accommodated and I lost around 36% before I had them sell everything and park the cash. No hard feelings. I'll keep the account and look for investment opportunities as we claw our way through this economic abyss. One thing I will not due however is solicit them for recommendations. Did a bit of that up front and learned my lesson.

[Guest]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

EuroPac will likely now have a banner year as the markets rebound at some point sharply out of the final washout of this big bear market. That's the irony quotient which comes back and hits investors who have taken stiff losses on the way down and sold out of their positions anwywhere between 30%-50% down from their entry points to reduce their market exposure. Commodities across the board are highly likely to be a phenomenal buy - within the next six months.

I suggested that some parts of Sitka Pacific's claims were justified against Europac, but if I had to make a choice between Europac and Sitka Pac for the 5 year term I'd choose Euro Pac hands down. One is "occasionally" slippery, but the other is "more often slipperier" on the theory underpinning their positions. :p

Still. I'm amazed at the very high level of consensus here at iTulip that the US indexes are going to be moribund for the next 3-5 years. Where did these proponents pick up that particular conviction? It seems to have "just appeared" during this large market decline.

Markets seem to have priced in the largest portion of what is anticipated as a state of depression extending out as far as the eye can see, and everyone seems to be saying "Yep, we got national depression as far out as anyone can see, for sure". BTW, that is a prognosis on the indexes very similar to Mish's. Do proponents of the permanently dead US stock indexes theory feel entirely comfortable adopting Mish's call on this without further qualification?

[Supercilious]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

IMHO all this Mish/Pet Monkey war is hilarious. Both have their own share of interesting things they say and hugely missed opportunities.

The problem is that both try to present themselves as far more clairvoyant than they actually are, and IMHO for both it seems it is more important to be able to say "I was right and with my theories and predictions are correct" than actually to make accurate, actionable and profitable predictions... and as the result, for both the recommended portfolio return ... well ... don't exactly support their claims of sophisticated prescient analysis.

Now we are in the stage where oversized egos collide ... and that's somewhat funny ... one could imagine a catfight between Paris Hilton and Britney Spearts on who is more popular in nightclubs.

As a personal opinion, if I were to take sides, between Mish and Schiff, I would always choose Lahde :cool:

[GRG55]

Re: Schiff/Mish............It WAR!

IMHO all this Mish/Pet Monkey war is hilarious. Both have their own share of interesting things they say and hugely missed opportunities.

The problem is that both try to present themselves as far more clairvoyant than they actually are, and IMHO for both it seems it is more important to be able to say "I was right and with my theories and predictions are correct" than actually to make accurate, actionable and profitable predictions... and as the result, for both the recommended portfolio return ... well ... don't exactly support their claims of sophisticated prescient analysis.

Now we are in the stage where oversized egos collide ... and that's somewhat funny ... one could imagine a catfight between Paris Hilton and Britney Spearts on who is more popular in nightclubs.

As a personal opinion, if I were to take sides, between Mish and Schiff, I would always choose Lahde :cool:

Completely agree with your sentiment.

Mish and Schiff are both, in their own way, a product of the finance economy era...a time when almost everyone became conditioned to the belief that the prognostications of financial writers and fund managers warranted a level of attention that was absurd.

Today we live with the residue of that fast diminishing era; and still waste far too much time and internet bandwidth on Mish, Schiff, et al...;)