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  • Bad trade figures from China

    JUST how worrying are the figures, published on Wednesday December 10th, showing that China’s exports and imports plunged in November? Exports fell by 2.2% last month from a year ago; imports plummeted by an astonishing 17.9%. One analyst sums up the news as “a shock figure”.

    The gloom is spread all over the place. Exports dropped across all big traded goods and all parts of the world. Exports to America fell by 6.1%; those to the ASEAN countries, which had grown by 21.5% in October, fell by 2.4%. The faster decline in imports meant that China’s monthly trade surplus reached a record $40.1 billion. Exports last fell in 2001.

    Such numbers would be nasty enough for any big economy, but they are particularly shocking because China’s racing trade has been an engine of world trade, and thus global growth. During the 1990s China’s exports grew at an annual average of 12.9%; from 2000 to 2006 that growth nearly doubled to 21.1% each year. China's rapidly rising imports have also driven growth elsewhere. The chief economist of a Chinese bank calls the latest figures “horrifying”.


    From The Economist

  • #2
    Re: Bad trade figures from China

    Originally posted by ASH View Post
    JUST how worrying are the figures, published on Wednesday December 10th, showing that China’s exports and imports plunged in November? Exports fell by 2.2% last month from a year ago; imports plummeted by an astonishing 17.9%. One analyst sums up the news as “a shock figure”.

    The gloom is spread all over the place. Exports dropped across all big traded goods and all parts of the world. Exports to America fell by 6.1%; those to the ASEAN countries, which had grown by 21.5% in October, fell by 2.4%. The faster decline in imports meant that China’s monthly trade surplus reached a record $40.1 billion. Exports last fell in 2001.

    Such numbers would be nasty enough for any big economy, but they are particularly shocking because China’s racing trade has been an engine of world trade, and thus global growth. During the 1990s China’s exports grew at an annual average of 12.9%; from 2000 to 2006 that growth nearly doubled to 21.1% each year. China's rapidly rising imports have also driven growth elsewhere. The chief economist of a Chinese bank calls the latest figures “horrifying”.


    From The Economist
    Meanwhile, back in the USA:





    Ed.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Bad trade figures from China

      Something seems a little odd here.

      China's exports to U.S. declined by 6.1%

      U.S. manufactured imports declined by 25%.

      Since the U.S. imports the most manufactured goods from China, then almost everyone else had to see their manufactured exports to the U.S. drop by more than 25%. Something seems a bit fishy.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Bad trade figures from China

        Toast,

        Don't forget there are a lot of satellite Asian nations who take in partially finished goods from China then re-export to the US.

        But as China is the big boy in the mercantile arena just as the US is the big boy consumer, it is very possible that the net import/export figures are aggregated in each nation's numbers.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Bad trade figures from China

          Originally posted by we_are_toast View Post
          Something seems a little odd here.

          China's exports to U.S. declined by 6.1%

          U.S. manufactured imports declined by 25%.

          Since the U.S. imports the most manufactured goods from China, then almost everyone else had to see their manufactured exports to the U.S. drop by more than 25%. Something seems a bit fishy.
          We are number one


          EU replaces U.S. as biggest trading partner of China(09/15/06)

          The EU replaced the United States as China's biggest trading partner last year, said Xu Kuangding, Chairman of the China Federation of Industrial Economics (CFIE) on Sep.14.

          As one of the keynote speakers at the opening of a Sino-European economic summit, Xu said Sino-European trade, with a volume of 217.3 billion U.S. dollars, has exceeded the Sino-U.S. trade volume by some 5.7 billion dollars.

          European companies such as Airbus, Siemens, Nokia and Volkswagen, made the EU the fourth largest investor in China and China's most important supplier of technology, Xu said in a speech at the second Hamburg Summit -- "China meets Europe."
          http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/xw/t272113.htm

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Bad trade figures from China

            I refer to my "Reports from the front" and the Chinese Canton Fair. Certainly the Third session of the Fair was virtually unattended. In addition, virtually all our suppliers, who normally have reasonably full order books for the following year by this time, have virtually NIL orders for 2009. So, on that basis a lot worse is yet to come out of China.

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