Contest: Most Accurate Forecast of the Now Official Current Recession

[FRED]

Most Accurate Forecast of the Now Official Current Recession

The US recession we forecast to start in Q4 2007 started December 2007 as our October 2006 forecast projected, more than a year before the event.

In a shameless effort to publicize our spot-on forecast, we are re-running the contest.

The first registered iTulip member to find an equally or more accurate forecast wins an English gold sovereign. The standard for the English monetary system for centuries, the gold sovereign contains 0.2354 oz of gold. At the time of this posting, a gold sovereign sells for $231 retail in the US.

To qualify, the forecast needs to meet the following criteria to meet or beat the iTulip forecast for accuracy:

1. Must be posted on or before Oct. 27, 2006 when the iTulip forecast was posted. Date of posting must be provable using archive.org.
2. Must clearly state that the recession will begin in Q4 2007 not "may begin" or "might if X, Y, Z occurs" but a definitive "will begin" in Q4 2007.
3. Most clearly specify the quarter Q4 not any other quarter in 2007 or the entire year 2007.
4. Must clearly specify that inflation conditions will be high going into the recession and use the term "stagflation" to describe the conditions.
5. The forecast cannot be the result of random guessing by a bunch of contestants on another web site. It has to be based on actual economic analysis.
6. No stopped clock forecasts; the Q4 2007 forecast cannot be one of a string of recession forecasts over the past three years.

If all six conditions are met and you are the first to find such a forecast, you win by being the first to post a link to it on this thread. Multiple posts are allowed.

This contest was re-opened Dec. 2, 2008 and the thread closes for new posts in two weeks from that date. Good luck!

(Sorry, iTulip employees, contractors, writers, sponsors, and affiliates are not eligible.)