Well, since everyone is posting numbers that imply were going back to the future to about 1998, might as well look at some employment numbers.



ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT

B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by major industry sector, 1958 to date

(In thousands)



service- transpor- Infor- Financial Professional Education Leisure Other Govern

Annual Averages


1970...... 71,006 58,318 22,179 677 3,654 17,848
1971...... 71,335 58,323 21,602 658 3,770 17,174
1972...... 73,798 60,333 22,299 672 3,957 17,669
1973...... 76,912 63,050 23,450 693 4,167 18,589
1974...... 78,389 64,086 23,364 755 4,095 18,514
1975...... 77,069 62,250 21,318 802 3,608 16,909
1976...... 79,502 64,501 22,025 832 3,662 17,531
1977...... 82,593 67,334 22,972 865 3,940 18,167
1978...... 86,826 71,014 24,156 902 4,322 18,932
1979...... 89,932 73,864 24,997 1,008 4,562 19,426

1980...... 90,528 74,154 24,263 1,077 4,454 18,733
1981...... 91,289 75,109 24,118 1,180 4,304 18,634
1982...... 89,677 73,695 22,550 1,163 4,024 17,363
1983...... 90,280 74,269 22,110 997 4,065 17,048
1984...... 94,530 78,371 23,435 1,014 4,501 17,920
1985...... 97,511 80,978 23,585 974 4,793 17,819
1986...... 99,474 82,636 23,318 829 4,937 17,552
1987...... 102,088 84,932 23,470 771 5,090 17,609
1988...... 105,345 87,806 23,909 770 5,233 17,906
1989...... 108,014 90,087 24,045 750 5,309 17,985

1990...... 109,487 91,072 23,723 765 5,263 17,695
1991...... 108,375 89,829 22,588 739 4,780 17,068
1992...... 108,726 89,940 22,095 689 4,608 16,799
1993...... 110,844 91,855 22,219 666 4,779 16,774
1994...... 114,291 95,016 22,774 659 5,095 17,020
1995...... 117,298 97,865 23,156 641 5,274 17,241
1996...... 119,708 100,169 23,409 637 5,536 17,237
1997...... 122,776 103,113 23,886 654 5,813 17,419
1998...... 125,930 106,021 24,354 645 6,149 17,560
1999...... 128,993 108,686 24,465 598 6,545 17,322

2000...... 131,785 110,995 24,649 599 6,787 17,263
2001...... 131,826 110,708 23,873 606 6,826 16,441
2002...... 130,341 108,828 22,557 583 6,716 15,259
2003...... 129,999 108,416 21,816 572 6,735 14,510
2004...... 131,435 109,814 21,882 591 6,976 14,315
2005...... 133,703 111,899 22,190 628 7,336 14,226
2006...... 136,086 114,113 22,531 684 7,691 14,155
2007...... 137,623 115,420 22,221

Monthly data, seasonally adjusted

2007
November.... 138,037 115,759 22,049 735 7,520 13,794
December.... 138,078 115,745 21,976 739 7,465 13,772
2008
January..... 138,002 115,666 21,907 744 7,426 13,737
February.... 137,919 115,557 21,816 744 7,382 13,690
March....... 137,831 115,454 21,737 750 7,343 13,644
April....... 137,764 115,363 21,628 752 7,284 13,592
May......... 137,717 115,264 21,577 760 7,246 13,571
June........ 137,617 115,154 21,491 768 7,196 13,527
July........ 137,550 115,048 21,437 777 7,173 13,487
August...... 137,423 114,909 21,367 788 7,153 13,426
September... 137,020 114,525 21,250 795 7,098 13,357
October(p).. 136,700 114,163 21,083 796 7,034 13,253
November(p). 136,167 113,623 20,920 800 6,952 13,168


If we reset to 1998, we're looking at a peak to trough loss of about 13 million jobs. With some overshoot, 15-20 million. Pretty much in line with iTulip projections.