I feel like we've hit the bottom..

[blazespinnaker]

700 B inaugral stimulus, 7 trillion loans from the fed, citigroup rescue.

It feels this is the 'shock and awe' and it's going to push us back into an inflationary world.

I've pushed a lot into commodities over the last few business days.

Am I right? Anyone else moving with conviction at this point?

Headlines:

Fed Pledges Exceed $7.4 Trillion in Rescue of Companies With Frozen Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Drk&refer=home

Paulson May Ask for Last $350 Billion of TARP to Bolster Consumer Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Er4&refer=home

Obama's Economic Stimulus May Top $700 Billion as Paulson Maps New Program
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Vjo&refer=home


U.S. stocks climbed for a second day after the government said it will guarantee $306 billion of troubled Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...0Js&refer=home

This is a lot of dough.

[FRED]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

This is a lot of dough.

The bond and gold markets think so: Treasuries tanked and gold spiked on the news.

[LargoWinch]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

Anyone remembers the $25 single day increase in crude this summer?

I think it is coming back, but this time the starting point is $50 crude.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

700 B inaugral stimulus, 7 trillion loans from the fed, citigroup rescue.

It feels this is the 'shock and awe' and it's going to push us back into an inflationary world.

I've pushed a lot into commodities over the last few business days.

Am I right? Anyone else moving with conviction at this point?

Headlines:

Fed Pledges Exceed $7.4 Trillion in Rescue of Companies With Frozen Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Drk&refer=home

Paulson May Ask for Last $350 Billion of TARP to Bolster Consumer Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Er4&refer=home

Obama's Economic Stimulus May Top $700 Billion as Paulson Maps New Program
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Vjo&refer=home


U.S. stocks climbed for a second day after the government said it will guarantee $306 billion of troubled Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...0Js&refer=home

This is a lot of dough.

The US equity markets have been due for a bounce. We are now 2 days off the recent lows of the entire downward move over the past year.

Maybe the bottom is in place, but I personally doubt it. So far, everything the government has tried has resulted in the markets going lower after very brief moves upward.

I'm positioned 50% long in various stuff, but my best hope is to get out of most of it before a retest of the recent lows or the establishment of even new lows that would still then requires retesting.

I am of the opinion as long as there are 300+ point moves occurring in the DJI we are still in a bear market, and by every technical assessment about which I know, we are still in a bear market in US equities.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

Anyone remembers the $25 single day increase in crude this summer?

I think it is coming back, but this time the starting point is $50 crude.

I don't remember 25$ moves in oil, the biggest one day move I recorded was 10.75 on 6/6/08, but perhaps I missed recording something correctly.

[jk]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

i think we've hit A bottom. in bill fleckenstein's terms we're near the end of the financial crisis, but still very early in the economic crisis. and a funding crisis is still over the horizon. THE bottom is, quite likely, some time down the road. i think this move is tradeable if you're so inclined. but i wouldn't get too comfortable, because this horror show is a triple feature.

[LargoWinch]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

I don't remember 25$ moves in oil, the biggest one day move I recorded was 10.75 on 6/6/08, but perhaps I missed recording something correctly.

Here you go Jim:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...-in-a-day.html

It was actually in Sept. this year after the bailout announcement.

I can't just imagine the value of this move in market value... perhaps in the Trillion+ range.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

Yeah, one thing I can see is a lot of older folk using any significant bounce as an opportunity to permanently leave the marketplace.

The ones that are wondering why the hell they stayed in when they're so close to retirement / have retired.

The great baby boomer exit is putting downward pressure on the markets.

Still, I think the inflation is going to happen. Especially because of the fear of the baby boomer exit..

Personally, I'm beginning to see the light on the gold buys, but I still can't bring myself to buy gold en masse. Commodities, though, I think correlate pretty closely to gold.

[we_are_toast]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

We may have hit bottom for gold, but I think there's more to come for the stock indexes. I've been waiting for a bear market rally to get out of the PM stocks I'm stuck in, this might be it.

Sinking more money into the bank zombies (kunstler's term) sure doesn't seem like a reason for celebration.

[tsetsefly]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

have we hit a "high" for the dollar???
almost .02 down today...

The dollar has stayed in the 1.25 range vs the Euro for some time now...

[jk]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

Yeah, one thing I can see is a lot of older folk using any significant bounce as an opportunity to permanently leave the marketplace.

The ones that are wondering why the hell they stayed in when they're so close to retirement / have retired.

you overestimate people. while scared and wishing they got out earlier/higher, hope springs eternal, and as soon as prices rise most of those people are feeling relieved and forget their intention to sell. they've had years of buy-the-dip training that has not yet been extinguished. that's why i don't think it's THE bottom, but just A bottom.

[grapejelly]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

we're due for a multi month rally bringing us up at least 50% off the october lows...and then another shoe to drop.

At some point, treasury bonds will tank and so will stocks.

[grizam303]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

we're due for a multi month rally bringing us up at least 50% off the october lows...and then another shoe to drop.

I know I may be foolish for addressing this in the current situation, but on what basis are we "due" for a rally? The fundamentals still aren't there.

If retailers report good sales, I could see how the present could be considered a sort of bottom, but that's a very big if. Companies who have been around for over a hundred years are going out of business. Making arbitrary comparisons to past business cycles is not prudent in this kind of environment.

I wouldn't be surprised at a US debt downgrade after the $300b the government just committed itself to.

[*T*]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

The only bottom that will get hit here is you a*** as it gets spanked. I say equities should go down another 50% from here (barring a hyperinflationary event first, in which case you would not be wanting equities).

[grapejelly]

Re: I feel like we've hit the bottom..

I know I may be foolish for addressing this in the current situation, but on what basis are we "due" for a rally? The fundamentals still aren't there.

If retailers report good sales, I could see how the present could be considered a sort of bottom, but that's a very big if. Companies who have been around for over a hundred years are going out of business. Making arbitrary comparisons to past business cycles is not prudent in this kind of environment.

I wouldn't be surprised at a US debt downgrade after the $300b the government just committed itself to.

An emotional relief rally. Markets are irrational. And there are always corrections. We've had a HUGE move without a serious correction (on the upside.)

Fundamentals have NOTHING to do with shorter term moves like this.