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Thread: DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

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    Default DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

    DJIA under 8000 in 2008? Who could have known?

    The following two sets of charts compare our March 2006 and December 2007 forecasts with November 2008 actuals.

    March 2006 we forecast the DJIA to revert to an inflation-adjusted mean 50% or more lower than current levels. December 2007 we forecast a 40% decline in 2008.

    Friday we'll tell you how we did it and what we think it means.


    Chart above shows iTulip reversion to the inflation-adjusted mean forecasts (yellow lines) March 2006
    1. Worst cast
    2. Moderate case
    3. Best cast


    Actual Nov. 2008: Worse than our 2006 worst case forecast. Call it:
    0. Worst, worse case


    Chart above shows iTulip forecast Dec. 27, 2007 for the US stock market in 2008 (Debt Deflation Bear Market $ubscriber)


    Same chart updated for the stock market today, Nov. 19, 2008

    So much for efficient markets.

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    Last edited by FRED; 11-20-08 at 10:25 AM.
    Ed.

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