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The much anticipated report is out.
World Energy Outlook 2008
article from the WSJ.com:
NOVEMBER 13, 2008
IEA Says Fading Oil Production Threatens Supply
By GUY CHAZAN
The study, part of the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, shows the investment needed to increase overall oil production -- along with offsetting the declines of today's aging fields -- may be higher than previously estimated.
The world will have to invest $26.3 trillion by 2030, or more than $1 trillion a year, to ensure adequate energy supplies, the IEA said. That is $4 trillion more than its year-earlier estimate.
Opportunities to invest are more constrained than in the past. International oil majors such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC are being squeezed out of the world's main oil-producing areas by national oil companies. It's uncertain whether these state-run behemoths are willing -- or able -- to make the kind of investments the world needs.
The American Petroleum Institute said the IEA's report underlined the need for the U.S. to develop its own oil and gas resources.
Despite the short-term effects of the global slowdown, the IEA said energy demand would continue to grow 1.6% a year on average from 2006 to 2030 -- a total increase of 45%. Demand for oil is expected to rise to 106 million barrels a day in 2030 -- 10 million barrels a day below what the agency predicted last year -- from about 85 million barrels a day now.
The IEA's analysis, which included fields accounting for more than two-thirds of the crude produced globally in 2007, found that rates of decline would rise to 8.6% in 2030 from an average of 6.7% today.
"Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 million barrels per day of gross capacity -- roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia -- would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oil-field decline," said IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka.
World Energy Outlook 2008
article from the WSJ.com:
NOVEMBER 13, 2008
IEA Says Fading Oil Production Threatens Supply
By GUY CHAZAN
The study, part of the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, shows the investment needed to increase overall oil production -- along with offsetting the declines of today's aging fields -- may be higher than previously estimated.
The world will have to invest $26.3 trillion by 2030, or more than $1 trillion a year, to ensure adequate energy supplies, the IEA said. That is $4 trillion more than its year-earlier estimate.
Opportunities to invest are more constrained than in the past. International oil majors such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC are being squeezed out of the world's main oil-producing areas by national oil companies. It's uncertain whether these state-run behemoths are willing -- or able -- to make the kind of investments the world needs.
The American Petroleum Institute said the IEA's report underlined the need for the U.S. to develop its own oil and gas resources.
Despite the short-term effects of the global slowdown, the IEA said energy demand would continue to grow 1.6% a year on average from 2006 to 2030 -- a total increase of 45%. Demand for oil is expected to rise to 106 million barrels a day in 2030 -- 10 million barrels a day below what the agency predicted last year -- from about 85 million barrels a day now.
The IEA's analysis, which included fields accounting for more than two-thirds of the crude produced globally in 2007, found that rates of decline would rise to 8.6% in 2030 from an average of 6.7% today.
"Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 million barrels per day of gross capacity -- roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia -- would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oil-field decline," said IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka.
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