Some pertinent observations made by Denninger:

1 - The stock market typically turns around about six months before the economy does. If you believe we are at or near a bottom, you must believe the economy will turn arobeund no later than May or June of next year. Carefully think that one though, ok?

2 - Bottoms are not made off "V"s. Historically, it simply doesn't work that way. Go back and look at 2000-03. There were three separate tests, the first of which failed, and the entire process took nearly a year. Many people bought the first recovery and got it in both eye sockets when that rally failed, only to watch the spike just barely go lower and reverse - they not only bought the top on the rebound but then sold the bottom! Yikes!

3 - The 13/34 EMA (or 20/50SMA) on a weekly basis is widening. It is, in fact, at the widest it has been during this bear market. Let's talk about the possibility this bear is ending when the 13 EMA (or 20SMA) is pointing upward or at least has flattened, ok? These signals are not perfect but they do work.

4 - If you are still in the market long, you're gambling no matter what you do. I have gotten a lot of emails asking me "what do I do now?" from people with portfolios that are still invested. Never mind that I'm not a registered investment professional and thus can't (and won't) give specific advice, the fact remains that you sat through a nearly 50% decline and now on a 10% bounce you want to know what's next. There is no correct answer at this juncture. The right time to exit long was (at the latest) at the end of December of 2007. Any choice you make is a pure gamble on an outcome that neither I or anyone else can predict.

5 - The 2000-03 bear market was accompanied by a business recession brought about by the popping of the Internet bubble. At no time did consumer spending go in the tank during that recession; it never posted a decline! This time we're just starting to see real consumer spending declines, and this is a consumer-led recession - the ugly sort that happened back in the 1970s and early 1980s.

6 - The market lost nearly half its value in the 2000-03 recession without any consumer spending declines. The move from 1995-2000 was a credit-bubble led move. So was this one, but this one nailed both consumers and businesses. If we remove that excess credit and leverage this suggests we could retrace all the way to 450 on the SPX!

7 - On a technical basis this is a clear 8-year separated double-top. Basic chart analysis suggests that when such a pattern is confirmed, as this one has been, you are likely to lose the entire move to the first top. That also targets 450 on the SPX.

8 - The 2000-03 decline required two full years to reach close to the bottom. It also "counts" on a monthly chart as five waves of decline, in accordance with Elliott Wave Theory. This decline only counts as three waves thus far on a monthly chart, suggesting that not only may (III) down not be complete, but even if it is, you still have (IV) and (V) to come! This also strongly suggests that 760ish, the 00-03 bear market bottom, will not hold. In addition this "bear market" is less than a year old at this point, having initiated in November or December of last year, and thus is less than halfway over on a historical time perspective compared to 2000-03. If you look at consumer-recession associated Bear Markets of the past (think 1970s) you will find that those are far more vicious than the 00-03 Bear, and the losses heavier. Thus, expecting the 00-03 experience to be the "end point" is, in my opinion, hopelessly naive.
I would also note the parlous state international shipping is in. People have forgotten what REAL PAIN is - they think this is it; it really isn't!