Why the real estate market isn't coming back anytime soon.

[c1ue]

Found via Patrick.net - a report by T2 Partners

http://sastocks.files.wordpress.com/...sis_6_6_08.pdf

Non-Agency Mortgage Issuance

Subprime 2/07: $28.5B
Subprime 2/08: $0.0B

Alt-A 2/07: $36.5B
Alt-A 2/08: $0.4B

Jumbo 2/07: $16.3B
Jumbo 2/08: $1.9B

Even disregarding the % drop part, a single month snapshot is showing a $79B drop in mortgage issuance in 3 previously key sectors of the mortgage market.

Given that these type loans were over half of all loans issued in CA in 2007, for example, it does not bode well for the market.

Annualized - this is nearly a trillion dollars of mortgages: $948B no longer funding house purchases.

Other data of note:

10.2% of all homes built since April 2000 are vacant.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Why the real estate market isn't coming back anytime soon.

This isn't a correction it is a realization that we have had a flawed capital formation regime for twenty years hidden by remarkable productivity gains of the emerging word economy. We have been so busy promoting free markets and patting ourselves on the backs that we forgot the fundamental premise of free market capitalism is not a belief in the future or the ability to bullshit but that capital should form around demostrated achievment with tangible measured results.

[phirang]

Re: Why the real estate market isn't coming back anytime soon.

Oh, well, at least the GCC is on track to make over $500B this year...

good to know that the wealth-transfer mechanism is still intact!

[Slimprofits]

Re: Why the real estate market isn't coming back anytime soon.

Obviously, c1ue, you haven't been watching the Fox Business Channel, on which this morning we were informed that the residential real estate markets here in Calfornia and in Florida are "turning around, signaling that the national market bottom has been reached." That according to one of their well paid goons.

[kingcopper]

Re: Why the real estate market isn't coming back anytime soon.

Obviously, c1ue, you haven't been watching the Fox Business Channel, on which this morning we were informed that the residential real estate markets here in Calfornia and in Florida are "turning around, "signaling that the national market bottom has been reached." That according to one of their well paid goons.

The new way to sell a new home is through the REO market! Accordingly, the market has turned...for the worse!:eek: