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  1. 08-24-08 10:10 PM #1
    icm63's Avatar
    icm63
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    Default USA Recession Technicaly Confirmed

    Ok you may laugh, and just say, I know there is a recession on, because I can just look out the window and see how bad it is. Well here is a 100% accurate recession 'is on as we speak' indicator, since 1946.

    The year on year rate of change of the official civilian unemployment rate is the measure, and when this passes 15, then every time it has done this USA has been declared in a recession at a latter point in time (see 3rd panel)

    1st Panel - USA GDP and USA GDP without exports
    2nd Panel - Civilian unemployment rate
    3rd Panel - Rate of change of series in 2nd panel

    USARecessionConfirmed.gif

    I wont be betting against these odds !
    Last edited by icm63; 08-25-08 at 01:34 AM. Reason: Embedded the most excellent graph
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