Never believe conspiracy theories...

[bart]

Never believe conspiracy theories... except when the actual and provable facts exist.

And especially when its not a conspiracy, but rather actual and proven actions by both the US Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), and the gold buy & sell actions by the European Central Bank (ECB) (Gold price manipulation/control proof).

Mish is at it again today, trying to spin and squirm out from under having been busted for both not doing his homework and also quite dubious journalism - as noted in Dollar intervention: Facts versus ideology .

There is no reason to believe that dollar manipulation or gold manipulation is the driving force behind movements in gold, silver, and currencies. Never believe conspiracy theories or screams of manipulation when far simpler explanations such as (insert Mish spin)

Translation: spin and more attempts to avoid:

The actual timing and dollar details of the recent intervention are as follows:

1. As of the reporting weeks ending June 13th & June 20th, $6.381 billion dollars were sold by the ESF for Euros (approx. 9.8 billion Euros).
2. During that first week, the value of the dollar index moved from 72.39 to 74.15 and then back to 73.43 the following week.
3. The reporting of the ESF actions from the weeks ending June 13th & June 20th was not made public until July 14th.
4. The dollar index closed at 71.87 on July 15th, which was the recent low.

The actual facts show that the ESF intervention preceded any other significant factor to the dollar move, to the best of my knowledge.

His comment also implies that my original iTulip post was not about the proven dollar intervention being the current driving force, but rather about it being the primary trigger. For any who are familiar with the area of logical fallacies, that's called a straw man. The use of logical fallacies, rather than dealing with the facts, is nothing more than an admission that he knows he has blown it - in other words, more dubious journalism.

Straw Man (Fallacy Of Extension): attacking an exaggerated or caricatured version of your opponent's position. For example, the claim that "evolution means a dog giving birth to a cat."
Another example: "Senator Jones says that we should not fund the attack submarine program. I disagree entirely. I can't understand why he wants to leave us defenseless like that."

And he continues:

There are now screams of "gold manipulation" just as there were currency manipulation. I will not suggest there is no manipulation, but I will suggest that manipulation if and when it occurs does not work.

At least Mish has backed off ridiculing that manipulation/control exists, but again he completely fails to directly address the actual facts as laid out in points 1-4 above regarding the ESF, and also ignores the 500+ tonne gold sale recently by the ECB ( Gold price manipulation/control proof ) during the week ending 7/18/2008.

Screams? - sorry Mish, no. Just plain facts and thorough research.




And from later today:

Many claim that that dollar was rising because of manipulation. Such claims are completely baseless and were totally debunked in (link to his original article that has been proven wrong, per my research and facts).

I see that Mish has now stooped even lower and is basically into maximum spin. Bald assertions with wrong facts is one guarantee of dubious journalism.



Perhaps he will continue to ignore that the ECB gold sale was during the same week that the ESF made its $6.3 billion Euro purchase public too? After all, central banks never talk to each other, especially during periods of financial crisis... "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive."

It's again quite odd, to say the least, that he asserts that it did not work when the actual facts show that gold peaked the following week and is down almost $200 since then. More distortion, exaggeration etc. and quite questionable and dubious journalism.

If gold continues down and corrects over 40% like it did in 1975, will he still say it doesn't work?

Note that I'm not saying it will, but I am saying that its far from impossible.

I'm also saying, as I have for years, that I expect gold to peak at well over $2000 in the current long term hard asset cycle.

I have no bone to pick with those who buy & hold during primary bull markets, but rather prefer myself to trade the corrections and avoid the truly massive draw downs that always happen.

I also prefer to look at all the facts that I can locate, rather than being wedded to fixed viewpoints that can be very dangerous and perilous to your wealth & portfolio.

And again, this is not about judging the right and wrong about what the ESF or ECB have done or are doing - it's about that they exist and that they can and do have massive negative effects on one's portfolio.

Mish's motto: "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."

My motto: "Ignore the man behind the curtain at your peril."