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Thread: The Late, Great American Dollar

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  1. #3
    metalman's Avatar
    metalman is offline iTulip Select Premium Member, Chief Cynic
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    Default Re: The Late, Great American Dollar (vs. Euro)

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamJF View Post
    My understanding is the long-term iTulip thesis includes the devaluation of the dollar vs. the Euro; is this (still) correct?

    The recent Twin Focus Quarterly report says:

    "Based on a purchase power parity approach and the fundamentals, we believe that the correct exchange rate for €/$ is about 25-30% below where it should be. We believe that the current account balance between the US and the EU is beginning to turn in favor of the US because of the undervalued USD. There is clear evidence of cyclical re-coupling with the US, which, with associated shifts in capital flows, could move against the €."

    Is this a short-term movement within the larger move downward, or has the iTulip position in the $/Euro (as I undersand it...) changed, or does this opinion (which seems to be manifesting in the market for the past few weeks...) differ from the long-term iTulip view?

    Thanks!
    (Be gentle; this is my first post here)
    welcome! itulip is long term bearish on all the major currencies. read Janszen's Hard Assets Las Vegas Conference 2007 Keynote Presentation from this time last year.

    over-valued euro doesn't mean undervalued bonar. in the race to the bottom, now it's the euro's turn for a run. watch gold in euros to see what's really going on.

    here's the chart from that preso...



    and one of bart's... things can change quickly...

    Last edited by metalman; 08-08-08 at 06:07 PM.

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