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Thread: Energy and Money Part II: Can We Repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics?

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  1. #23
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    San Diego (did I already mention this place sucks??)

    Default Re: Energy and Money Part II: Can We Repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics?

    Spot on *T* -

    I think iTulip's view is that a US recession will indeed weaken oil prices notably worldwide as global commerce grinds to a slowdown led by the US. Lots of very reputable economists seem to see the world as remaining entirely coupled.

    I may be vewing things irrationally, but I feel the industrialising world will barely pause to acknowledge a US prolonged slump, before picking that slack right back up. Core growth rates in these areas are simply too high, and they are rapidly developing internal markets and markets among each other. India alone already has a 300 million strong middle class and growing. I don't know what the equivalent Chinese middle class number is, but these are only two of the countries in question. How are you going to slow that truck down much at all?

    As you note, as "higher entropy" fuel sources are increasingly going to be filling in the gaps of global al liquids energy production, it's indeed difficult to see petroleum prices slipping by very much. I'd be surprised to see them dip below $80 a barrel, and I'd expect to see them spike to $125 on a high, at some point in the next 18 months.

    3-4 years out? I think it's very, very easily $150 a barrel.

    Everyone has a different view. I think by and large GRG55 who works in the petroleum industry, regards price action somewhere in the $80 - $125 range, but I only gathered that by inference.
    Last edited by Contemptuous; 01-14-08 at 02:27 PM.



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