Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
In a de-globalizing, increasingly fractious world, those nations fortunate enough to have endowments of energy resources and farmland combined with an educated workforce and sound, functioning public institutions would appear best positioned to recover from the devastation of the virus. Provided they haven't already sold it all out to the Chinese.

In the tech world the block chain may prove the gravest threat to the dominance of Google and Facebook, as it transfers power back into the hands of individual consumers. Cryptocurrencies perhaps the greatest future threat to the conventional banking industry?

China mystifies. After a long period of acting the Dragon internally and the Panda externally, it seems to have chosen an odd time to become belligerent on so many fronts? Military excursions in the South China Sea and at the high altitude border with India. Hong Kong. Intimidating Australia and Canada. Threats against the UK and others over Huwai. For an economy so dependent on exports it seems to be assuming the rest of the world can't live without China. Assuming the upcoming election and the pulling down of the remaining statues (are there any left?) will keep the USA distracted indefinitely is a risky gambit.
Crypto is interesting.

The US will not let its dollar hegemony to go without a brutal fight, despite its continuous abuse of the exorbitant privilege.

Facebook’s Libra crypto effort was stillborn, likely due to lack of trust and discomfort with the associated power.

China’s digital yuan effort, despite being centralised rather than distributed like bitcoin, continues its slow relentless progress.

I’ve been published recently covering a few of these related issues.

Not only is China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative staggering in inflation adjusted scale to the Marshall Plan, but the growing debt trap diplomacy story still fails to weave in the digital layer.

Kenya has a railroad to nowhere funded with Chinese debt.

Refinancing it on friendly terms, but with conditions such as issuing social media platform licenses(WeChat over Facebook ecosystem) would be a win/win

CCP/PLA/MSS get to play admin to Kenya

Kenya’s ruling party gets to play moderator under China’s perpetual platform admin and ensure their continuity of power.

Then eventually slip in Digital Yuan as the default/dominant platform transaction means of exchange.

That’s why I reference BATH and FAANG as the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines of the digital layer.

I’ve also been published recently about China’s ability to activate nationalism to distract away from domestic problems with near shore foreign military adventure(akin to Argentine Junta in the Falklands in 1982).

But with a conservative predetermined outcome akin to US in Grenada in 1983.

So I think Chinese military adventurism will be a combo of the two, but with even more conservative predetermined outcome, perhaps planned like the Turkish coup attempt in 2016......mission execution begins when markets close on a Friday, resolved by Monday morning open.

Maybe Xi is like a Chinese Reagan, “It’s morning in America/China”, keen to go down in history In placing China back in its rightful global place.

But at the same time having to balance the policy and cultural promotion of Nazi Aryan(Han) racial superiority-like unintended consequences with the problems of maintain the pact of delivering higher quality of life and standard of living or get Tiananmen’d.

Personally, I think China views BATH and digital Yuan as the “combined arms operations” means to gain a sustainable global franchise to remain in a position of dominant power/influence indefinitely with a fast aging population.

I think we are already neck deep in a digital Cold War.

Having visited Africa’s Serengeti, it reminds me of both thr wet season and the dry season.

In the wet season all the species seem to get along fat, dumb, and happy.

In the dry season, the fangs come out.

I believe the Chinese people will accept and justify any negative consequences to the world to continue China’s relentless growth.

I also believe that you don’t have to move the needle too much to shift from the left declaring the right Nazis, to declaring everything made in China practically has a swastika on it.

I was at Steve Blank’s house about 6 months ago with a bunch of other folks for a dinner, I think his recent post sums up a big part of the problem: https://steveblank.com/2020/06/18/th...-21st-century/

He’s well worth following on this topic.