German Virus Death Rate

[Mega]

So 0.8% so far & it might be 0.4 % !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (19 mins in to the video)

When this things over & we go though the DRY stats & add in those who died of THIS Virus whom would have died in the next 9 months of some other Virus.......going to be quite any interesting debate!

Mike

[Mega]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

[seobook]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

So 0.8% so far & it might be 0.4 %

what percent of the cases happened in the last couple weeks? looks like over 2/3 of them
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...pment-germany/
Undiagnosed cases can lower the true fatality rate, but new cases aging can move the number in the opposite direction as some people get progressively sicker over time.

[Mega]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

I think we have to wait 2-4 weeks, but I think its going to pan out under 1%.....WELL under.
Mike

[Mega]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

[santafe2]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

The German gov't focused less on spread and more on saving the lives of their elders. It's a choice. They have the infrastructure to support it. In the end we'll understand if they made the right choices. So far, so good. Blighty has 1/3 the cases and 6X the mortality rate.

[Mega]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

The GERMANS TEST MORE!
They done the most testing hence they got the most accurate data.....

[FrankL]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

The GERMANS TEST MORE!
They done the most testing hence they got the most accurate data.....

also note that the Germans (and the French, and the Dutch) do not determine the exact cause of death for people who died at home (mostly elderly so far) beyond a case of 'viral pneumonia'.

While northern Italy is a disaster area right now, especially for the elderly, I anticipate that they may come out ahead of the rest of Europe, perhaps even by many months.

- It seems possible that the virus has been making its rounds in northern Italy earlier than currently thought, perhaps as early as November 2019.
- As a consequence, Italy has put the lockdown in effect much later into the transmission curve. As a result, a much larger percentage of the population has had it or will get it

Once tests for Covid-19 anti-bodies become widely available, and/or when the threshold of herd immunity in the northern Italian community will be reached, the northern Italian economy
will start up while the rest of Europe and the US is still in lockdown.

On the balance of choosing between sacrificing the economy for saving the population (and in particular the elderly), northern Italy unintentionally has chosen to prefer their economy (vis-à-vis most other countries in the western world).

[Mega]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/swe...rus-do-nothing

[FrankL]

Re: German Virus Death Rate

also note that the Germans (and the French, and the Dutch) do not determine the exact cause of death for people who died at home (mostly elderly so far) beyond a case of 'viral pneumonia'.

While northern Italy is a disaster area right now, especially for the elderly, I anticipate that they may come out ahead of the rest of Europe, perhaps even by many months.

- It seems possible that the virus has been making its rounds in northern Italy earlier than currently thought, perhaps as early as November 2019.
- As a consequence, Italy has put the lockdown in effect much later into the transmission curve. As a result, a much larger percentage of the population has had it or will get it

Once tests for Covid-19 anti-bodies become widely available, and/or when the threshold of herd immunity in the northern Italian community will be reached, the northern Italian economy
will start up while the rest of Europe and the US is still in lockdown.

On the balance of choosing between sacrificing the economy for saving the population (and in particular the elderly), northern Italy unintentionally has chosen to prefer their economy (vis-à-vis most other countries in the western world).

While this is anecdotal and not statisically significant, do check out the news on blood tests performed on the population of Castiglione d'Adda.

It seems that ~70% has had Covid-19, which should be around the level needed for herd immunity.

This is a promising first sign, and I hope northern Italy can soon relax their lockdown policies without suffering a major resurgence of Covid-19 cases.