Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
Hmmm. iTulip is most renowned for being a macro economic site.

As the chart attached will show the Euro has been in a consistent downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) against the US$ for the last 12 years.

You may be expecting inflation, but I haven't seen a cogent argument from you as to why. The declining Euro is inflationary - but you argue it hasn't really declined. The COVID induced disruption to global supply chains is certainly inflationary...but only in the short term. Food costs have gone up in Canada, one of Her Majesty's colonies and where I happen to live. But the Canadian economy is most definitely not experiencing inflation - not with one-third of the labour force out of work or underemployed.

So if you already know everything about what I wrote, pray tell what exactly is your logical case for inflation in the face of the growing likelihood of a global solvency crisis?

And where on earth did you get the idea the US would even contemplate "turn(ing) off the flow of dollars to the world..."?

I think we have a reasonable probability of a couple of years of mild global deflation (higher structural unemployment, insolvencies, slow economic growth with record sovereign debt acting as a drag on investment and output, the potential for a persistently overvalued US$) before we have to worry about inflation (primarily from supply destruction and de-globalization running head on into accelerating regional growth in Asia, accompanied by a shift in flows out of the $ as the safe haven trade fades). The market will, of course, price in the pending inflation in advance.
You want an argument for inflation.....
I can look at my monthly payments from now VS 2010
They are higher. I do not need any other evidence.
Have your monthly bills and costs gone down?
So what if the dollar strengthens vs other currencies while finished stuff costs more.
Most Americans are getting poorer...You can save all the bankrupt zombie companies you want. Won't help if the average person doesn't have disposable income.