Sad BAD day

[Mega]

On the face of it totally pointless..............Trump will have lost more than he could have gained
Plane full of peaceful people lay dead......& for what.....for Bloody WHAT!

Trump has lost my support 4 ever, period,

Am sure other will feel the same.

Mike

[kriden]

Re: Sad BAD day

Your vote will be missed.
Oh, wait

[Woodsman]

Re: Sad BAD day

Your vote will be missed. Oh, wait

The question is, how many more of those who took a gamble with Trump or voted for him as a form of protest will come out this November? And considering the correlation between his strongest supporters and those with connections to servicemen, it's unwise to dismiss the potential impact a new war would have on his prospects for reelection. This latest de-escalation, coupled with his previous one (calling off the attack in response to the drone shootdown last year) indicates that he understands this. So far, he's managed to play both sides of the fence with a fair amount of agility, but this assassination has brought him as close to the line as he's ever been. Incumbent presidents are generally re-elected, so long as peace and prosperity reign. We have adequate simulations of both in play, but should the reality of either state break into the consciousness of his supporters, the outcome will be fairly easy to predict.

Notice we don't hear the president talk about the great, big, beautiful wall much these days. We don't hear much on immigration, generally, even though that was a signature issue in 2016. I wouldn't say he's capitulated, but it's pretty close. Take a look at this.

He cannot survive the general impression that he has given up on his two signature issues.

It's going to be a turnout election is a few states. And that will be the difference between a second term and a one hit wonder. You have an energized Democratic base, however poorly led, who will come out in force. All depends on the course of the early primaries. The energy and momentum is behind Sanders, but the Party has united behind Biden, with Warren (and perhaps Mayor Pete) as a stand-by. If Sanders does well in the early primaries, it will add energy and enthusiasm to his supporters and give others the opportunity to switch. It will drain support for Biden going into South Carolina, which is his to lose. And Trump cannot beat Sanders.

Even against Biden, for Trump to win, he can't afford to have a single one of his MAGA-committed voters stay home. And he has to hold the line on his soft, provisional supporters. Going to war is a non-starter. The Iranians are aware of that and first played that hand in '79-'80. There's every reason to expect (I have no evidence, though) - similar to Nixon's attempt to derail Johnson peace initiatives with North Vietnam prior to the '68 election (not to mention Reagan's work to manufacture an "October Surprise") - that there are Democrat (i.e. intelligence types) back channels to Iran at work here hoping to engineer a similar outcome for Trump. Would anyone put it past them?

[jk]

Re: Sad BAD day

The Iranians are aware of that and first played that hand in '79-'80. There's every reason to expect (I have no evidence, though) - similar to Nixon's attempt to derail Johnson peace initiatives with North Vietnam prior to the '68 election (not to mention Reagan's work to manufacture an "October Surprise") - that there are Democrat (i.e. intelligence types) back channels to Iran at work here hoping to engineer a similar outcome for Trump. Would anyone put it past them?

maybe they learned something from bill casey.

[Mega]

Re: Sad BAD day

Its not just him either, Both Houses as well.............the DNC might very well wake up & find an "Outsider"..........JImmy Carter is the last I can recall.
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Sad BAD day

Yes, a missile
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-plan...ssile-11904698

You wind up people, they crack:-

[GRG55]

Re: Sad BAD day

The question is, how many more of those who took a gamble with Trump or voted for him as a form of protest will come out this November? And considering the correlation between his strongest supporters and those with connections to servicemen, it's unwise to dismiss the potential impact a new war would have on his prospects for reelection. This latest de-escalation, coupled with his previous one (calling off the attack in response to the drone shootdown last year) indicates that he understands this. So far, he's managed to play both sides of the fence with a fair amount of agility, but this assassination has brought him as close to the line as he's ever been. Incumbent presidents are generally re-elected, so long as peace and prosperity reign. We have adequate simulations of both in play, but should the reality of either state break into the consciousness of his supporters, the outcome will be fairly easy to predict.

...

I have no idea how the US election this year will turn out. I suppose all of us who are not US voters should probably pay some attention. As I posted once before, a very long time ago, US citizens can pretty well ignore what happens in elections in the rest of the world, but the rest of the world doesn't really have the luxury of doing the same with the USA.

The reference to a "new war" (in the Middle East) continues to mystify me.

There's a lot more to the Qasem Soleimani affair than is known publicly. Decisions like that do NOT get made impulsively, despite the characterization in the media (and a vain President's desire to play to his base by promoting that meme). And you wouldn't believe the shzt that goes on out there that never makes the media.

President's don't get reelected for peace. Anywhere.
Whether Reagon in Grenada, Clinton in Bosnia, France's Sarkozy salivating over bombing Libya, whenever a President is concerned about popularity ratings and reelection they go and start a dust up. The notable exception is Jimmy Carter...the one President that kept the USA out of war. And we all know how that turned out.

The beauty of the Middle East is the place is one endless dust up, even after "Mission Accomplished" as we've all witnessed.
All that we are dealing with there is dialing up or dialing down the intensity. People (on both sides of the debate) are making this out to be a far more important event than it actually is.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Sad BAD day

I have no idea how the US election this year will turn out.

If you fervently support something ludicrous, it's becomes impossible to alter your position, or even withdraw. You'd be admitting you yourself are ludicrous. Nobody eats crow without a gun to their head. The Republican base will stand solid. Sanders could have beaten Trump. He could beat him in 2020, but Sander's chances of winning the nomination are again very slim even if he is one of last two standing. I doubt impeachment, conflict in the middle east, Australia's conflagration, or the DJIA will have much to do with the outcome.

[Mega]

Re: Sad BAD day

Looks like Iran will try to walk away from the Shoot down.....BIG Mistake!
Lots of people would feel sympathy with their mistake & owning up to it......."look the Big Bully America caused us to do it by error"...the Left media would run with that.

Now ANYTHING they say in the future, be it full attacks or Atomic enrichment will be viewed differently

Mike

[Woodsman]

Re: Sad BAD day

I appreciate the world-weary cynicism, GRG. I shared it for some time when I could pretend these were abstractions on their way to becoming the shadows and fog of history.

But it's personal now. There are names and faces of people I once held as infants, whose tiny fingers gripped mine. I've watched them become intelligent, thoughtful, and kind young adults. And I feel I have something of a responsibility to them, at the very least because of my failure to break through their conditioning and the ubiquitous propaganda.

I'm tired of the waste and the sacrifice and the opportunity costs, too. It might be more adaptive, certainly more profitable, to see it all as the price of doing business. We've all benefited much from the Empire and more than most, we understand the cost we'll pay once it ends. But that seems to matter less to me now that I can see the sun sink lower each day in the horizon of my time.

Now this is getting mawkish - another symptom of advancing age - and so for the time being, forgive my lack of enthusiasm regarding semantics about war and peace.

The priorities for Americans haven’t changed; certainly not those who own no securities or commodities and whose wealth takes the form of stable employment, families, and neighborhoods. They are and ever will be peace and prosperity. And for presidential incumbents, electoral history shows that they are a winning combo. Few knew war like Dwight Eisenhower. Was it mere happenstance that his campaign slogan was “Peace and Prosperity” and that he won handily over Stevenson? It was the same for Reagan's landslide and Clinton's second term. Even Barack Obama paid homage to the maxim, though certainly by its breach. Presidents denied a second tern – Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush – did poorly on one or both indices.

Trump's break with tradition began early in his campaign with his questioning of NATO's relevance, his opposition to the sandbox wars, and his desire for rapprochement with Russia. Events since require us to take all that with a Gibraltar-sized grain of salt, but hope persists in the face disappointment. Certainly, the MAGA-committed have not allowed their concerns to impact their support for the man. At least, not yet. Considering they have been made anathema by the Democrats and the media as irredeemable, where else could they go and who else could they turn to? Yet more Americans than not seem to like what he is doing on these two big items, if we are to believe the polls. Even possible Trumpian malfeasance and actual buffoonery take little toll. Each time a tipping point nears, things don’t tip. The blunt and clumsily-yielded instrument of this impeachment hasn't moved us much, except for a seemingly paradoxical uptick for the Bad Orange Man.

Some, drunk on faith and Fuhrerprinz, have convinced themselves that it's "all part of the plan." Of course, there is no plan and there never has been. Yet despite his fondness for blustering, for threats, and saber-rattling, Trump usually backs away. In June, after being “cocked and loaded,” Mr. Trump called off an air strike on Iran. And this carefully choreographed - symbolic, yet impressively accurate - initial response by the Iranians to their general's murder and Trump's almost magnanimous and conciliatory speech (for him) continues along that same path. Even in the impulsive, risk-heavy individualism that serves as our incoherent and ad-hoc foreign policy, Trump's instincts are clear enough and he knows a new war (or an old war made new, to your point) will mean the end of him.

I've made my opinions about this assassination clear, but that's all they are. And I have my suspicions about who and whom positioned Trump to make such a colossal mistake. What I lack here is evidence.

I will always welcome any gesture that can avoid a massive war. I am grateful for anything which can delay or cancel even a minor war. While I accept that Trump is a narcissist and hardly up to the task, I recognize when he does something either right or simply “less bad" than expected. And Hillary, for all her intellect and experience, would have given us war with Russia.

While it's certainly axiomatic that the ME is a place of endless dust-up, I think this one is different. Time will tell.

[Mega]

Re: Sad BAD day

[Mega]

Re: Sad BAD day

[jk]

Re: Sad BAD day

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENzirPuX...name=4096x4096

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Sad BAD day

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Sad BAD day

I have no idea how the US election this year will turn out. I suppose all of us who are not US voters should probably pay some attention. As I posted once before, a very long time ago, US citizens can pretty well ignore what happens in elections in the rest of the world, but the rest of the world doesn't really have the luxury of doing the same with the USA.

The reference to a "new war" (in the Middle East) continues to mystify me.

There's a lot more to the Qasem Soleimani affair than is known publicly. Decisions like that do NOT get made impulsively, despite the characterization in the media (and a vain President's desire to play to his base by promoting that meme). And you wouldn't believe the shzt that goes on out there that never makes the media.

President's don't get reelected for peace. Anywhere.
Whether Reagon in Grenada, Clinton in Bosnia, France's Sarkozy salivating over bombing Libya, whenever a President is concerned about popularity ratings and reelection they go and start a dust up. The notable exception is Jimmy Carter...the one President that kept the USA out of war. And we all know how that turned out.

The beauty of the Middle East is the place is one endless dust up, even after "Mission Accomplished" as we've all witnessed.
All that we are dealing with there is dialing up or dialing down the intensity. People (on both sides of the debate) are making this out to be a far more important event than it actually is.

Exactly.

I’ve had two conversations this past week while catching up with old friends sharing things that aren’t in the media.

How familiar are you with Mozambique and their offshore gas projects?

A whole lot of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries were just slaughtered in Mozambique.

Where ever there is massive natural resource value, there is massive greed, plotting, scheming, and murdering.

Saudi Arabia seems to be getting interesting.

it’s getting easier for foreigners to get visas, visiting women aren’t required to wear burkha or hijab, and it looks like MBS’s white elephant city Neom is kinda getting built.

It sounds like they want to turn it into Shenzhen circa 1983.

It also sounds like young Saudi men are not actually that afraid of getting their hands dirty in the commercial sector and openly asking infidels about how to meet women when visiting UAE.

I wonder if, fundamentally, the real battle in the region is over which country’s young people rip apart their authoritarian leaders first?

Iran?

Or Saudi Arabia?

Meanwhile, a jillion Ethiopians are damming up the Nile and Egyptian intelligence officers are openly/overtly causing trouble everywhere along the Mile to keep Egypt from a horrible death by dehydration.

Killing and chaos have been baked into the local/regional culture since long before the US naively thought it could fix anything.

I’m spending more free time looking thru telescopes and reading about the latest batch of NASA astronauts, including an Iranian-American.