Results 1 to 18 of 18

Thread: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    9,931

    Default Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Wow, very good figs, meantime the DNC:-


  2. #2
    GRG55's Avatar
    GRG55 is offline iTulip High Commissioner, Select Premium Member, Canada and Persian Gulf
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    12,781

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    And to the North, in Canuckistan, the news is maybe not quite so rosy. The private sector took the biggest hit.

    I was originally going to use this post as an excuse to reprise the "Tale of Two Economies" thread. But perhaps sleeping dogs...

    After years of systematically chasing away capital investment, using the tax system to attack entrepreneurs and self-employed professionals, sacrificing the resource sectors on the altar of climate change, and focusing more on cartoon socks and Indian male bridal regalia instead of the welfare of his citizen voters, the sanctimonious narcissist that passes for our Prime Minister may finally begin to understand repeatedly incompetent policy choices ultimately result in negative consequences.

    Imagine that.

    Maybe his new Minister of Middle Class Prosperity (no, that is NOT from a Monty Python skit; it is, alas, all to real**) will create some "high paying green economy jobs" to fill the gaping void.

    **From the National Post:
    "...Then thereís Ottawa-Vanier MP Mona Fortierís new job. I literally assumed people were joking about the Liberalsí obsessive branding, but itís true: No word of a lie, she is an Associate Minister of Finance and, specifically, the Minister of Middle Class Prosperity.

    Should a government need a minister whose job is to ensure Canadians are prospering? One might reasonably hope thatís the goal of pretty much any minister when she rolls out of bed in the morning. But they sure donít always act that way, so maybe a Minister for Making People Richer isnít such a bad thing..."

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6262739/c...ancial-crisis/

    Canadian economy shed 71K jobs in November ó biggest loss since the financial crisis

    December 6, 2019 8:44 am

    The Canadian November labour market posted its biggest monthly job loss and largest unemployment upswing since the financial crisis over a decade ago, Statistics Canada data show. The economy shed 71,200 jobs last month, while the jobless rate jumped to 5.9 per cent, up from 5.5 per cent in October...

    ...The goods-producing sector lost 26,600 jobs in the month as the number of manufacturing jobs fell by 27,500 jobs and the natural resources sector shed 6,500...

    ...Regionally, Ontario and Prince Edward Island were the only provinces to see job growth in the month. Quebec lost 45,100 jobs in November due to a decline in manufacturing as well as accommodation and food services. Alberta and B.C. both lost 18,200 jobs.
    Last edited by GRG55; 12-06-19 at 11:56 PM.

  3. #3
    jk's Avatar
    jk is online now Shadow Fed, iTulip Select Member, The Brain
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    10,569

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    i bought some long dated puts on fxc recently.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    9,931

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    GRG/JK
    I been thinking that this might be a good time to go Long on oil.

    Greta Thornberg/Musk etc......."we don't need no stinking oil"
    Fracking boom now failing

    As for our beloved Tree hugging politco's whom have mostly NEVER had a real job in their lives thus little grip on how the World fuctions.......
    Pay backs a bitch!

    Take Germany, That fat uglay ex Stasi bitch that runs it said proudly how there are days when Germany burns no Cole or Gas & is powered just by Green engery.
    She "forgot" to say anything about the nuclear power imported from France Or the Cole minned in de Fatherland is shipped to Poland, where its burnt in power stations....the power is then exported BACK to Germany !!!!

    I said it once, I say it again............once we have an DEPRESSION, this Green/electric car shit is over!

    Mike

  5. #5
    jk's Avatar
    jk is online now Shadow Fed, iTulip Select Member, The Brain
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    10,569

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    fwiw i've been buying energy and oil stocks over the last few months, along with some other commodity related vehicles. it's early, though, probably quite early, barring geopolitical drama.

  6. #6
    GRG55's Avatar
    GRG55 is offline iTulip High Commissioner, Select Premium Member, Canada and Persian Gulf
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    12,781

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    i bought some long dated puts on fxc recently.
    Have you changed your view about the eventual direction of the USD?



    Quote Originally Posted by Mega View Post
    GRG/JK
    I been thinking that this might be a good time to go Long on oil.

    ...
    Oil looks cheap. I prefer a basket of the dividend paying multi-national majors however. Starting wtih Exxon.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    9,931

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Care to list them?

    BP/TOTAL ?

    It might be too soon, what if the World ecom crashes?
    Cheers
    Mike

  8. #8
    jk's Avatar
    jk is online now Shadow Fed, iTulip Select Member, The Brain
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    10,569

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    Have you changed your view about the eventual direction of the USD?

    no, the dollar HAS to go down in the intermediate and long term. the only question is: against what? i'm not sure about how it will be relative to other currencies, as they are likely to lose value as well, so all i can say is "against stuff." but the loonie looks like it has to go down in the near term.

    --------------



    Quote Originally Posted by grg55
    Oil looks cheap. I prefer a basket of the dividend paying multi-national majors however. Starting wtih Exxon.
    Quote Originally Posted by mega
    Care to list them?


    re basket of dividend paying energy stocks
    an easy way to participate is the cef bgr. it distributes 8.4% currently, but part of that is a return of capital. it is actually paying about 6.4%

    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/BGR

    alternately ixc is a global, cap-weighted etf, much more diversified than the purely american ones, paying about 4%

    https://www.etf.com/IXC#overview
    Last edited by jk; 12-07-19 at 12:57 PM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    9,931

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Ah................the Good old days, God bless Jimmy


  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    4,044

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    Have you changed your view about the eventual direction of the USD?

    Oil looks cheap. I prefer a basket of the dividend paying multi-national majors however. Starting wtih Exxon.
    Not suncor?

  11. #11
    GRG55's Avatar
    GRG55 is offline iTulip High Commissioner, Select Premium Member, Canada and Persian Gulf
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    12,781

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by touchring View Post
    Not suncor?
    My criteria for buying and selling Suncor is well documented in past postings. Buy it when it falls below CAN $28 on the Toronto Exchange. Start selling when it breaks above $40. You should be out of the stock entirely when it hits $45.

    At this time I can't come up with any good reason to own any Canadian energy stocks whatsoever.


    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    no, the dollar HAS to go down in the intermediate and long term. the only question is: against what? i'm not sure about how it will be relative to other currencies, as they are likely to lose value as well, so all i can say is "against stuff." but the loonie looks like it has to go down in the near term...


    I've been quite negative on the Loonie for some years now, limiting my investment portfolio to a maximum 5% Canadian economy exposure for at least the past 5 years. If anything my pessimism about the Canadian economy and the exchange value of the Loonie is increasing; I agree with your view. Unless the Federal Government comes to its senses rather quickly, and there is no evidence of that at the moment, a 61 cent CAN $ is well within the realm of the possible.

    The one thing that might derail it is the US Federal Reserve deciding to aggressively cut rates in quick succession, while the Bank of Canada deliberately trails as it tries to hold up the currency over fear of inflation.


    Last Update: 8 Dec 2019 21:15 GMT+0

    The Canada 10Y Government Bond has a 1.584% yield.
    10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is -7.4 bp.
    Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.


    Yield Comparison Spread Curve Convexity
    2Y vs 1Y -2.8 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Short-Term Maturities
    5Y vs 2Y -6.4 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
    10Y vs 2Y -7.4 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
    Last edited by GRG55; 12-08-19 at 06:02 PM.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    9,931

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Just think it might be a GREAT time to go long Oil..............

  13. #13
    jk's Avatar
    jk is online now Shadow Fed, iTulip Select Member, The Brain
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    10,569

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    grg? would canadian energy companies be a good way to hold oil? their prices will be set globally, while their costs are in loonies.

  14. #14
    GRG55's Avatar
    GRG55 is offline iTulip High Commissioner, Select Premium Member, Canada and Persian Gulf
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    12,781

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    grg? would canadian energy companies be a good way to hold oil? their prices will be set globally, while their costs are in loonies.
    The concern I have about Canadian hydrocarbon energy companies is the enormously hostile governments, both Provincial (primarily B.C. and Quebec) and Federal. I am quite certain these governments will continue to obstruct investment in this sector in Canada, and increase both direct and indirect taxation on the companies. That makes it very difficult as the oil & gas industry is among the most capital intensive on earth.

    It is difficult to describe how incompetent our Federal Government has become, and the long term damage and declining living standards that will result from the policy implementations of the past few years and currently being contemplated. The people in charge, particularly the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister, are individually so wealthy none of the fallout will be of any consequence to them or their families.

    I am preferring the large multi-national oil companies that have significant exposure to the best assets in the US domestic shale plays.

  15. #15
    jk's Avatar
    jk is online now Shadow Fed, iTulip Select Member, The Brain
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    10,569

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    The concern I have about Canadian hydrocarbon energy companies is the enormously hostile governments, both Provincial (primarily B.C. and Quebec) and Federal. I am quite certain these governments will continue to obstruct investment in this sector in Canada, and increase both direct and indirect taxation on the companies. That makes it very difficult as the oil & gas industry is among the most capital intensive on earth.

    It is difficult to describe how incompetent our Federal Government has become, and the long term damage and declining living standards that will result from the policy implementations of the past few years and currently being contemplated.
    .
    wasn't the goose that laid golden eggs dissected in the end?

    and to add to your point- it's also interesting that the canadian gov't thinks it's preferable to ship oil in railroad cars rather than pipelines.

  16. #16
    GRG55's Avatar
    GRG55 is offline iTulip High Commissioner, Select Premium Member, Canada and Persian Gulf
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    12,781

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    wasn't the goose that laid golden eggs dissected in the end?

    and to add to your point- it's also interesting that the canadian gov't thinks it's preferable to ship oil in railroad cars rather than pipelines.
    Another example, this week, of the continued rapid decline of investment in the Canadian hydrocarbon sector. The now overtly hostile political environment in Canada will curtail this sector permanently. Governments have no viable ideas of how to replace the significant revenue decline that is resulting. And Bill Morneau, the Federal Finance Minister, is utterly clueless. Canada is now simply uncompetitive as far as attracting investment capital. Not just in oil & gas, where the problem has become acute, but across almost every other industrial sector of importance to the country (with the possible exception of the "flipping-condos-to-the-Chinese").

    Chevron said its decisions are part of its global portfolio optimization effort focused on improving returns and driving value.

    "Although Kitimat LNG is a globally competitive LNG project, the strength of Chevron Corp.'s global portfolio of investment opportunities is such that the Kitimat LNG Project will not be funded by Chevron and may be of higher value to another company," Chevron said in a statement.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/chev...stry-1.4725118

    Chevron move to exit Kitimat LNG project a dash of 'cold water' for gas industry
    Last Updated Wednesday, December 11, 2019 12:12PM EST


    Chevron's move is the latest in a string of setbacks for B.C.'s nascent liquefied natural gas industry which once boasted nearly 20 proposed projects with the implied promise of a new higher-priced export market in Asia for Western Canada's abundant natural gas resources.

    Chevron is not the first company to want out of Kitimat LNG -- it bought its 50 per cent stake from Calgary-based Encana Corp. and Houston-based EOG Resources, Inc., in December 2012.


    In the same transaction, Houston-based producer Apache Corp. raised its stake in Kitimat LNG from 40 per cent to 50 per cent. But two years later, under pressure from activist investors, it sold that stake to Australian Woodside Petroleum Ltd., which remains Chevron's partner.


    Malaysian energy giant Petronas cancelled its Pacific NorthWest LNG project in 2017 and later joined the Royal Dutch Shell-led $40-billion LNG Canada project, which remains the only project under construction after being green-lighted in 2018...

  17. #17
    Milton Kuo is online now iTulip Ambassador, iTulip Select Premium Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Houston, TX
    Posts
    1,139

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    Another example, this week, of the continued rapid decline of investment in the Canadian hydrocarbon sector.
    Chevron said its decisions are part of its global portfolio optimization effort focused on improving returns and driving value.

    "Although Kitimat LNG is a globally competitive LNG project, the strength of Chevron Corp.'s global portfolio of investment opportunities is such that the Kitimat LNG Project will not be funded by Chevron and may be of higher value to another company," Chevron said in a statement.
    In the case of Chevron's exit from Kitimat, is this truly due to Canadian taxes and regulation or is it more because of the very low price of natural gas, currently at ~$2.30/MM BTU, with seemingly no end in sight of such low prices? My understanding is that the shale fields in the U.S. produce a lot of natural gas from crude oil E&P and the best shale fields have very low costs of crude oil production ($15/bbl per Bloomberg and I've been told it's even lower than that).

    Exxon Aims for $15-a-Barrel Costs in Giant Permian Operation

    Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to reduce the cost of pumping oil in the Permian to about $15 a barrel, a level only seen in the giant oil fields of the Middle East.

    Development, operating and land acquisition costs will be ďin and around $15 a barrel,Ē

  18. #18
    GRG55's Avatar
    GRG55 is offline iTulip High Commissioner, Select Premium Member, Canada and Persian Gulf
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    12,781

    Default Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

    Quote Originally Posted by Milton Kuo View Post
    In the case of Chevron's exit from Kitimat, is this truly due to Canadian taxes and regulation or is it more because of the very low price of natural gas, currently at ~$2.30/MM BTU, with seemingly no end in sight of such low prices? My understanding is that the shale fields in the U.S. produce a lot of natural gas from crude oil E&P and the best shale fields have very low costs of crude oil production ($15/bbl per Bloomberg and I've been told it's even lower than that).

    Exxon Aims for $15-a-Barrel Costs in Giant Permian Operation
    Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to reduce the cost of pumping oil in the Permian to about $15 a barrel, a level only seen in the giant oil fields of the Middle East.

    Development, operating and land acquisition costs will be ďin and around $15 a barrel,Ē
    The global blue-water LNG business is essentially an arbitrage between low priced natural gas at the sources and higher priced natural gas at the delivery points.

    LNG export projects benefit from and need a low natural gas input price. The cheap associated gas from shale oil is part of what is driving the massive LNG export projects being developed on the USA Gulf coast. The price of natural gas at Station 2 in NE BC is even lower, far lower, than US Henry Hub.

    The other advantages the north coast of Canada has over US LNG is it does not have to transit the Panama Canal to access the Pacific Basin/Asia markets, and it is days less round-trip ship time to move it to the North Asia markets of Japan, Korea, etc.

    Those advantages, along with the depressed Canadian $ exchange rate, are still not enough to overcome the costs, delays and uncertainties being imposed by our governments in Canada.
    Last edited by GRG55; 12-16-19 at 07:41 AM.

Similar Threads

  1. Trump to win?
    By touchring in forum Political Abyss
    Replies: 1703
    Last Post: 11-19-16, 10:16 AM
  2. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11-30-10, 10:58 AM
  3. Replies: 2
    Last Post: 04-26-10, 06:26 PM
  4. Get ready for some good housing numbers
    By cjppjc in forum News
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 04-10-10, 01:31 AM
  5. Good overview of Case/Schiller numbers
    By Spartacus in forum News
    Replies: 41
    Last Post: 05-08-08, 12:43 PM

Bookmarks

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Opinions expressed herein are those of the posters, not those of iTulip, Inc., its owners, or management. All material posted on this board becomes the intellectual property of the poster and iTulip, Inc., and may not be reposted in full on another website without the express written permission of iTulip, Inc. By exception, the original registered iTulip member who authored a post may repost his or her own material on other sites. Permission is hereby granted to repost brief excerpts of material from this forum on other websites provided that attribution and a link to the source is included with the reposted material.

Nothing on this website is intended or should be construed as investment advice. It is intended to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only. We reserve the right to make changes, including change in price, content, description, terms, etc. at any time without notice. By using this board you agree that you understand the risks of trading, and are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions. Read full legal disclaimer.

Journalists are not permitted to contact iTulip members through this forum's email and personal messaging services without written permission from iTulip, Inc. Requests for permission may be made via Contact Us.

Objectionable posts may be reported to the board administrators via Contact Us.

-->