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  1. #1
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    Default Our Next President?

    Can an anti-FIRE Economy candidate possibly win?

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    Can an anti-FIRE Economy candidate possibly win?
    Nope.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    A crash would have to happen first.

    Also, I forgot you interviewed her long ago. My memory might be fuzzy here, but I thought you promoted Brown in the election way back in the day. You sounded fond of him in this thread.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by seobook View Post
    A crash would have to happen first.

    Also, I forgot you interviewed her long ago. My memory might be fuzzy here, but I thought you promoted Brown in the election way back in the day. You sounded fond of him in this thread.
    To clarify, not promoting Warren. I have mixed feelings about her. Asking if it's possible for a presidential candidate to win who takes such a strong anti-finance and insurance industry position. Brown ran a shabby, lazy campaign. Warren ran circles around him.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    To clarify, not promoting Warren. I have mixed feelings about her. Asking if it's possible for a presidential candidate to win who takes such a strong anti-finance and insurance industry position. Brown ran a shabby, lazy campaign. Warren ran circles around him.
    Senator Warren would be a great president, whip smart and hard working.
    But it seems the victory of FIRE is essentially complete now.
    The Citizens United environment allows unlimited amounts of untraceable money to be spent on elections, and FIRE has more money than can be imagined.
    Senator Warren has been fully vilified by right wing media since 2011, and would seem to stand no realistic chance of being elected to national office.

    I would be delighted to find myself wrong on this one.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Perhaps FIRE and Warren can reach a "compromise".

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
    Senator Warren would be a great president, whip smart and hard working.
    But it seems the victory of FIRE is essentially complete now.
    The Citizens United environment allows unlimited amounts of untraceable money to be spent on elections, and FIRE has more money than can be imagined.
    Senator Warren has been fully vilified by right wing media since 2011, and would seem to stand no realistic chance of being elected to national office.

    I would be delighted to find myself wrong on this one.
    i agree with you in a way. however, even in the unlikely event she would get elected she would face a hostile congress on BOTH sides of aisle.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Sorry - I believe Elizabeth Warren lacks to charisma of Presidents Obama, Bush (both), Trump.

    The masses like to be sold and follow a charismatic leader. Every top elected leader has an ability to mesmerize a crowd in their own way.

    Reading a great book of Nazi Germany and Hitler had the special sauce to mesmerize the crowd. The Elites of Germany loved Hitlers oratory skill and figured to use him as a puppet to manipulate the masses. Hillary Clinton did not/does not have the ability to mesmerize and was able to win lots of states with her platform/resume, but not enough to secure the office.


    Just my theory and I may be completely wrong. Take a look at Elizabeth Warren drinking beer on Instagram which comes across as an awkward way to relate to voters.
    Then take a look at Ann Richardson (Democrat) former Governor of Texas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtIFhiqS_TY

    I think Ann Richardson had the special sauce and perhaps would have become President if alive today.
    Last edited by BK; 01-03-19 at 12:56 PM.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    "You didn't build that" Warren would be a disaster.

    We do however need a much smaller FIRE that provides what the financial sector needs, but with all of the corruption and excessive costs
    carved out of it. You are seeing more of that with top teams leaving wirehouses and becoming lower fee managers and financial planner RIAs

    The big banks will be massively downsized by Amazon, Square, and other innovators.

    The insurance industry will need to jettison all the useless variable annuity scams, and trim down to life and disability coverage.

    The real estate industry will also be massively eroded by technology and new innovative solutions. 90%
    of the 1 million plus real estate agents will have to find other jobs.

    All this will be led by an independent party led by a charismatic leader that will capture enough votes to win, and begin the
    process of replacing the two corrupt parties we have now. It will be a revolution of the center, totally inclusive, free competitive markets,
    and bring back a much larger middle class.
    Last edited by vt; 01-03-19 at 02:01 PM.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by vt View Post
    All this will be led by an independent party led by a charismatic leader that will capture enough votes to win, and begin the
    process of replacing the two corrupt parties we have now. It will be a revolution of the center, totally inclusive, free competitive markets,
    and bring back a much larger middle class.
    That's been the dream for over 20 years. Still see no sign of it.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by vt View Post
    "You didn't build that" Warren would be a disaster.

    We do however need a much smaller FIRE that provides what the financial sector needs, but with all of the corruption and excessive costs
    carved out of it. You are seeing more of that with top teams leaving wirehouses and becoming lower fee managers and financial planner RIAs

    The big banks will be massively downsized by Amazon, Square, and other innovators.

    The insurance industry will need to jettison all the useless variable annuity scams, and trim down to life and disability coverage.

    The real estate industry will also be massively eroded by technology and new innovative solutions. 90%
    of the 1 million plus real estate agents will have to find other jobs.

    All this will be led by an independent party led by a charismatic leader that will capture enough votes to win, and begin the
    process of replacing the two corrupt parties we have now. It will be a revolution of the center, totally inclusive, free competitive markets,
    and bring back a much larger middle class.
    I'm in! Who's your candidate?

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Unfortunately he lacks charisma, but former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia has the requisite experience and moderation to lead.

    The ideal leader may come from outside the political arena, but have enough experience or understanding of how government works.
    I'm not able to identify anyone at the moment but will contribute ideas as they come forth. I encourage others to suggest
    candidates too.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    I'm in! Who's your candidate?
    In the past, certainly here in the UK, the very best candidates were from the business community that had then recognised their commitment to a greater good, by taking public office; thus an EJ would have seen that moment and moved forward to address that challenge. While you EJ, may well not believe that is your destiny, then who other has a long, very successful, track record of regard for the need for such a debate that could also follow through?

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    Default The charisma Gap

    BK, you are totally right about that. The Book "no sense of place" explains how this is the result of TV ,
    and more recently , the internet. Deep thinking people like James Madison or Lincoln would not have a chance
    now. And that is scarry, really scarry !
    But: acting is a skill that can be learned, right?
    Perhaps Warren could take some "Trump lessons" .

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    i agree with you in a way. however, even in the unlikely event she would get elected she would face a hostile congress on BOTH sides of aisle.
    I'm not sure that's true. I've said it before, but the last time Republicans held as many federal and state offices as 2016 was 1928. An as in 1930 (although a bit smaller in magnitude, Dems gained 52 in 1930 and 41 in 2018), a large shift happened in 2018, not just in terms of numbers of seats won, but also in terms of the ideology of people who won those seats. There are 26 new members of the progressive caucus in the House of Reps as of today, bringing the total to 95 out of 235. That's quite near the tipping point of majority of Democrats in the house. They're bigger than the New Democrats now (the biggest difference between a New Dem and a Progressive is probably friendliness to FIRE), and the Blue Dog caucus is down to about 24. Just as in 1930, the Senate stayed in Republican hands. And like back then, the next two (the 2020 and 2022) Senate maps are unfavorable to Republicans.

    Oh, I don't doubt the Senate will be the stumbling point, as it usually is. But we're late in the expansion in volatility land. We've got a President who already has shitcanned over 400 of his own appointees just 2 years in, and who's under the most serious investigation probably at least since Watergate. And we've got a background milieu of both accelerating political polarization and accelerating inequality. Thanks to the 2018 election, it doesn't seem too far off in the tails of probability to me that the Progressives pick up another 20 or 30 seats in the House on the coattails of a Presidential wave election in 2020. If that happens, the new speaker's going to be ideologically somewhere between Pelosi and AOC, and Hoyer's going to lose his position. Put plainly, the House would look nothing like the 2008 House. It doesn't even look like it today.

    Like I said before, the Senate's stickier. But a President Warren might end up with a much friendlier House than you'd think. And even in the Senate, the most Conservative Democratic Senators on economic issues like Claire McCaskill (MO), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), and Joe Donnelly (IN) lost. Only Manchin held on. Think about that. The Dems only lost with their most Conservative economic candidates. Claire McCaskill lost campaigning against a minimum wage increase on the same ballot that won. Now, it's possible all this means nothing in the tea leaves. But I don't think so. I think it reflects an electorate that's changing. I think the moment the Washington Consensus cracked was 2016 when both Trump and Clinton were campaigning against TPP.

    I strongly suspect that 2020 is not going to be a squeaker decided by Ohio or something. It could be. But I don't think so. I think we're looking at a disjunctive president on the eve of a realignment. Maybe that happens in 2024 and not 2020. But I doubt it. Domestically, a generational shift is occurring. For the first time in a generation, Fox News is not the number one cable news channel any more. Turnout in 2018 absolutely smashed records, highest in a midterm in a hundred years. This is not the type of thing that happens before another textbook humdrum Presidential election.

    Plus, for the first time in half a century, I think there's a more or less concrete policy platform on the left that's leaking into the larger Dem party, and the Right is pretty much out of ideas. Not much more top bracket or corporate tax cutting to be had. Nobody wants the damned flat or fair tax; nobody's even trying to push that crap anymore. Nobody really has the stomach for tossing grandma off her Medicare. Border wall's kind of a sideshow, but whatever, wasting a couple billion for a goofy fence won't hurt any more than wasting a couple billion on some viaducts in Afghanistan that get blown up two years later. They've all but given up on having a healthcare plan of any kind.

    Meanwhile, foreign policy's in shambles. UK's prepping for a hard brexit crashout. Italy and Brazil have all but gone fascist. China's grinding to some sort of a slowdown. Russia's more likely to try to absorb Belarus to create a real Union State and keep Putin in power under a new constitution. Incidentally, this move totally surrounds Ukraine. And US' soft power has been roughly dismantled, while Lord knows what's happening on the strategic hard power front. Long story short, odds are Uncle Sam's largely sitting this one out.

    So anyways, who knows what will happen in the Primary. There's so many people rumored to be running, I can't keep track of them all. It's gonna go sequential as always, but the rules have changed a lot. In about 13 mos we'll have Iowa, then New Hampshire, then presumably a long three week wait to South Carolina. Warren could out-perform in NH. Not sure how she'll do in IA. But there will be so many people, it's going to come down to pluralities and whatnot. And New England punches above its weight in Democrat primaries, it's worth more delegates than Texas even though it's half the population. So combined with the timing, a strong showing there can be decisive. It's not necessarily. But it can be. Important thing is showing 'momentum,' even if you don't win outright, doing better in NH than you did in IA sets up that whole 'comeback kid' narrative.

    It's all odds and I don't even know what the field looks like yet. But it doesn't seem so implausible to me as it does to some others here.

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    Default warreb's economic thinking

    Quote Originally Posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
    Senator Warren would be a great president, whip smart and hard working.
    But it seems the victory of FIRE is essentially complete now.
    The Citizens United environment allows unlimited amounts of untraceable money to be spent on elections, and FIRE has more money than can be imagined.
    Senator Warren has been fully vilified by right wing media since 2011, and would seem to stand no realistic chance of being elected to national office.

    I would be delighted to find myself wrong on this one.
    I was impressed by the depth and nuance of Warren's thinking on economic issues.
    .


    I Have to agree with your post, Thrifty!

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    Default Re: warreb's economic thinking

    Quote Originally Posted by Polish_Silver View Post
    I was impressed by the depth and nuance of Warren's thinking on economic issues.
    .


    I Have to agree with your post, Thrifty!
    I still think she has a better chance in the primaries than other folks do.
    Reasons?

    1. I'd be surprised if she didn't finish in the top 3 in NH (out of a field of maybe 2 dozen). She has a chance to be 1st. She has proven she can organize and fundraise in New England.
    2. In the last 100 years there have been 18 Dem nominees. Half of them came from just 3 states: Massachusetts, New York, and Illinois. Of the half that came from other states, half again were VPs. I'd argue that the primary system (delegate allocation and media markets) are designed such that folks from these states have an edge, and the party designed it that way.
    3. Even though Massachusetts is her home base, she's obviously not from there, and has more midwestern/southern Sooner mannerisms and turns of phrase. This can be a weakness if people see it as fake or carpetbagging or whatever. And she will get attacked for it. But it can also be a strength.
    4. This is more speculative. But I think she's in an intellectual sweet spot within the party. Still a capitalist so moderates on the right of the party can stomach her, but mindful enough of existing problems that the left wing of the party can still trust her. Combined with #3, I think that means she can play in the south in a way Sanders could not.

    Who knows what happens in a general. It's all going to be one thing at a time. But unless she flubs up and gets knocked out early (screws up bad and takes a bath in NH or something), I'd be surprised if she weren't one of the final contenders. Certainly I think she has a better shot than the other 5 who've announced campaigns so far (Gabbard, Castro, Delaney, Ojeda & Yang).

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    Asking if it's possible for a presidential candidate to win who takes such a strong anti-finance and insurance industry position. Brown ran a shabby, lazy campaign. Warren ran circles around him.
    If charismatic and persuasive, then yes.
    Last edited by Slimprofits; 01-14-19 at 10:52 AM.

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Quote Originally Posted by Slimprofits View Post
    Good call, on the surface. A newcomer with a relatively blank slate onto which bits and pieces of voter preference can be written as the campaign goes on, ala Obama, starting with "opposite of Trump" positioning of "love for each other and for our country." Ideal as a marketing campaign president for more of the same policies as Bush and Obama but without the Trump crazy.

    Almost everyone will welcome a return to the regular scheduled programming, except for this: Kamala Harris’s Trump-Size Tax Plan

    Warren lawyers the question of taxes: How high does Elizabeth Warren want to raise taxes? Her challenger wants to know.

    It is on the question of taxation that electability hinges.

    The reality of mounting federal government debt resulting from unrealistic tax policy will remain in the periphery of the conversation until after the election.

    Warren if she continues to play her cards this way could win, and at least won't have to got back on a "read my lips" pledge when she's forced to raise taxes.

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