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Thread: Our Next President?

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  1. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    New England
    Posts
    2,512

    Default Re: Our Next President?

    Yeah. They've been asking the same thing for decades. No doubt the real world is more complex. But the responses are correlating increasingly with Party ID over time. More than that, the 10 questions just establish a category scheme. Those who fall within the categories answer 100 other questions more consistently than before. Meaning the 10 questions are only used to establish baseline categories. But the percentage of random respondents who fall in each category change over time. And the correlation between categories and many other policy positions changes over time too. Put another way, people are much more likely to answer all 10 questions in a consistently conservative or consistently liberal way than they were a decade ago, and to follow up with other unrelated questions with similar consistency as one might expect. Hopefully I'm making sense there. Can explain better later if it's useful. Questions and weighting below:






    Anyways, even if you don't buy this, you can look at something less arbitrary like Nominate scores and see a similar polarization effect. Or look at counties that went 20 points or more for one candidate or another. That's striking.







    What it all adds up to in my estimation is that turning out the base will be a relatively more valuable strategy than swaying the middle, which has become relatively less valuable.
    Last edited by dcarrigg; 01-18-19 at 06:07 PM.

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