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    Default Have we misjuded Tesla


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    Default Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

    Wisely they focused on differentiating factors: motors and batteries. The fact that the body design for manufacturability is so poor is the result of hurrying the car to market. The car is somewhere between a mass produced prototype and an actual product. It's a problem that can possibly be solved over time with subsequent iterative improvements.

    That said, a friend who runs a Japanese factory was brought in and spent three days there ostensibly to recruit him for the job of correcting the design and fixing the manufacturing process. He turned the job down because he thought the task was not feasible. They'd have to start over from scratch, in his view, and of course that's not an option when you have a production schedule to keep to.

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    Motors are just another Elon Musk illusion. Talk to your average Tesla Model 3 owner and ask what they think of the power train tech in Tesla and they will tell you "Elon is going to save the world".
    Latest Tesla news from Taiwan television - go to 3:54 mark https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwe-gXnX7q0 Motor technology comes from Taiwan company called Fukuta. Elon Musk AC Induction motor is so unreliable that Model 3 now uses a permanent magnet motor design like every other car manufacturer. Keep in mind the original Founders of Tesla (Not Elon) named the car company after Tesla because it was Tesla who came up with the Induction Motor. No Magnets in the AC Induction motor which made it lighter than permanent magnet motor.
    Making the lightest weight electric motor is useless if you Mean Time to failure is the shortest in the industry and there seem to be a lot of motor failures for Tesla owners.

    IF you talk to a new Porsche owner you will be deluged with details about the motor and transmission. Talk to a new Tesla owner and you will be deluged with how Elon will save the world.
    EJ dead right you cannot short a cult stock or a religion.
    Does the American in this group photo look familiar to anyone???? https://www.google.com/search?q=tesl...dcQSLZNkriYaM:

    CTO of car company does not go over to Taiwan for a photo shoot unless it is for a major supplier.
    http://www.fukuta-motor.com.tw/tw/ne...051000003.html

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    If anything offered in this thread has value, it should be very clear in the next year or so. In November of 2017 EV sales in the US were ~17,000 cars. In November 2018, ~44,000. A YOY ~150% increase. Where did it come from? Tesla. In November 2018 they controlled almost 56% of the US market and sold 24,600 of the 44,000 EVs sold. If the quality is as bad as proposed here, they're toast. Tick tock.

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    Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
    If anything offered in this thread has value, it should be very clear in the next year or so. In November of 2017 EV sales in the US were ~17,000 cars. In November 2018, ~44,000. A YOY ~150% increase. Where did it come from? Tesla. In November 2018 they controlled almost 56% of the US market and sold 24,600 of the 44,000 EVs sold. If the quality is as bad as proposed here, they're toast. Tick tock.
    Just keep in mind that was after years of pent-up demand and pre-order deposits for Model 3. Here's a Men's Journal article about it from 2012. Still think there's a cap for $50k+ luxury vehicle market, EV or otherwise. Put another way, there's only so many Porsche's to displace. Folks outside of rarefied income brackets will have to make do with their Civics and Priuses. People seem to forget that the CEO had promised on a $35k Model 3 on several occasions. It never materialized. He also promised a $49k Model S. It never materialized either. That came out at $70k. For those keeping track, he's promising prices at exactly 30% less than he can deliver each time. Seems awfully coincidental for someone not systematically overpromising and underdelivering at least, no? All I'm saying is that they're a company built on lying to investors and the public. "Going private at $420 per share, funding confirmed." Lies have afforded them an outsized, huge market cap. You can choose to believe that the lies are meant to be serving some grater good or that they're some kind of 4D chess played by a genius. But I don't play 4D chess. I'm too stupid. I prefer baseball. And I call balls and strikes like I sees 'em.

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    I noticed that Tesla stock appears to be doing very well relative to the FAANGS during the recent tech bloodletting. Any thoughts?

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    No. I'm too dumb for that too. Tesla options are crazy expensive. It's stock moves based on both a buy-and-hold cult of Elon and a risk-junky chaos-is-a-ladder casino playground. It's prone to wild one-day swings. And analysts have targets anywhere from bankrupt to $4,000. So people load up on calls and puts and use it to imagine a hedge for all sorts of insanity. It's led by a CEO shedding executives as fast as Trump sheds cabinet-level officials who chronically lies and says he has no respect for the SEC and now publicly admits his company was close to death just a few months ago. Even if you trust the books and numbers presented on the financial side by a guy like that, and some of the figures from the last quarter are laughably farcical, and you take his sales projections at face value, and you look at the debt loads, you'd have to come to the conclusion that the stock is overpriced. But it's not about that. It's not about typical valuation metrics. It's not about ev/ebitda or debt/equity or any other normal corporate mba type analysis. It's about guzzling whiskey and spinning the roulette wheel on the crazy train. If you've got the stomach for it, you might make money. You might loose too. You might even go totally off the rails and get wiped out.

    One thing Musk has that most CEOs don't is a massive PR infrastructure. Sites like Electrek and Teslarati and whatnot are just the tips of the iceberg. He can sway online opinion much faster and harder than most. He has always been super PR conscious. And he has spun up a great (and totally fake) backstory. It has been going for a long time. Here's a 2010 article he got placed in the New York Times after he sent out e-mails berating them for not mentioning him in a previous Tesla article. Notice, it calls him a "rocket scientist" up front. He's not. He's just not. He has a business degree. He hired rocket scientists. But he's no Warner von Braun. It also calls him "Tony Stark" which is clearly an image he wanted to cultivate for himself. The story of him getting into a physics PhD program at Stanford and dropping out after the first week is a lie. It never happened. Nobody at Stanford remembers him. He didn't dream up the electric car at Tesla. He didn't even found Tesla. He bought it. Why would the New York Times simply lie about that? Why would Musk pay PR companies to maintain the lies in his Wikipedia article for years after the truth was out there? These are questions I don't have answers to. But I think it's a big part of building and maintaining the cult. And regardless it goes to show how little facts matter in Tesla world. Everything you hear is one part Goebbels.

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    Default Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

    Check out Inside EV
    A writer is https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-loveday-8a5055115/

    Clearly a Tesla propaganda site

    What are the odds that Mr Lovejoy daughter gets
    An article in Fortune http://fortune.com/2017/03/02/tesla-...-bria-loveday/

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    Default Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

    Quote Originally Posted by dcarrigg View Post
    Just keep in mind that was after years of pent-up demand and pre-order deposits for Model 3. Here's a Men's Journal article about it from 2012. Still think there's a cap for $50k+ luxury vehicle market, EV or otherwise. Put another way, there's only so many Porsche's to displace. Folks outside of rarefied income brackets will have to make do with their Civics and Priuses. People seem to forget that the CEO had promised on a $35k Model 3 on several occasions. It never materialized. He also promised a $49k Model S. It never materialized either. That came out at $70k. For those keeping track, he's promising prices at exactly 30% less than he can deliver each time. Seems awfully coincidental for someone not systematically overpromising and underdelivering at least, no? All I'm saying is that they're a company built on lying to investors and the public. "Going private at $420 per share, funding confirmed." Lies have afforded them an outsized, huge market cap. You can choose to believe that the lies are meant to be serving some grater good or that they're some kind of 4D chess played by a genius. But I don't play 4D chess. I'm too stupid. I prefer baseball. And I call balls and strikes like I sees 'em.
    I was re-reading, my post to see what set off your Tesla rant. I'm observing and documenting here, not cheer leading. Tesla no longer needs to survive, they've proven that the technology works. Not just for the environment, but for racing. Take the two latest super cars, the Porsche 918 and the Ferrari LaFerrari, they're hybrids. In my mind Musk is performing a valuable service, pushing automobile technology forward in ways that no other car company has been able to do. I don't care if he's a carny. I don't care if lots of folks get stuck with a car with no car company or a worthless stock. That's the gamble they're taking. I care about automotive / transportation technology moving forward.

    Since the Chevy Volt came out, I've owned 3 of them. Without really trying I'd average 100 mpg, when i got obsessive, I could reach 1,000 mpg. Who needs more than that in a commuter car. But GM can't sell them so they're going away. There are several other examples among the 40 some electric / hybrid electric cars. Only Tesla has created the circus atmosphere that make large numbers of people willing to buy an electric car. Again, who cares if Tesla is real, they've created a message that resonates and that message will survive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
    Again, who cares if Tesla is real, they've created a message that resonates and that message will survive.
    If they no longer survive as a company (if it is more than a debt restructuring they go through & they actually fully go under) then the message they will have left behind will also contain that important piece of information.

    And anyone else pushing to innovate on a parallel plane will have their assertions & statements called into question.

    The mainstream media is reactive & narrative driven.

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    Default Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

    the first portable computers, "luggable" was the term, were the osborne and kaypro iirc. [i'm not sure whether to count radio shack's machine]. my first computer was a kaypro, in 1982. the fact that those companies went away didn't kill the portable computer market.

    with bmw, audi et al as well as all the other makers, the technology will go on if it's worth anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seobook View Post
    If they no longer survive as a company (if it is more than a debt restructuring they go through & they actually fully go under) then the message they will have left behind will also contain that important piece of information.

    And anyone else pushing to innovate on a parallel plane will have their assertions & statements called into question.

    The mainstream media is reactive & narrative driven.
    You're giving the MSM more credit than they deserve. They're just starving squirrels looking for a nut. Innovation does not happen on the MSM plane.

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    I think the media is typically selling the last battle/war. They often project the recent past into the future indefinitely.

    If Tesla sinks then any other electric-only car company will be viewed with deep suspicion.

    If hybrid and electrics are portions of bigger & established companies then so be it, but if Tesla fails, any stand alone startups focused on electric would get tarred and feathered by reporters writing the easy story about how they look a lot like Tesla.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seobook View Post
    If they no longer survive as a company (if it is more than a debt restructuring they go through & they actually fully go under) then the message they will have left behind will also contain that important piece of information.

    And anyone else pushing to innovate on a parallel plane will have their assertions & statements called into question.

    The mainstream media is reactive & narrative driven.
    The European car makers are investing billions in electric. The EU has legislated that 20% of cars sold by 2025 must be zero emission. 35% by 2030. VW have a 7 year car cycle and say the current cycle (that's just started) will be final ICE one. Volvo is stopping ICE soon.
    The Europeans and (maybe China) will lead on electric because they won't or don't want to be held politically ransom by energy producers like the Russians and US. The US ability to pump millions of barrels of oil allied to its mass climate change scepticism will be a barrier to electric.

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    Quote Originally Posted by llanlad2 View Post
    The European car makers are investing billions in electric. The EU has legislated that 20% of cars sold by 2025 must be zero emission. 35% by 2030. VW have a 7 year car cycle and say the current cycle (that's just started) will be final ICE one. Volvo is stopping ICE soon.
    The Europeans and (maybe China) will lead on electric because they won't or don't want to be held politically ransom by energy producers like the Russians and US. The US ability to pump millions of barrels of oil allied to its mass climate change scepticism will be a barrier to electric.
    You make the all too common mistake of not only underestimating the Americans, but also completely lacking understanding of how its economy is completely unlike Europe or Asia.

    When the Americans are finished with EVs everybody there will have one, while in Europe and China they will remain expensive baubles enjoyed by the upper class. It's what the Americans do best. Scale.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    You make the all too common mistake of not only underestimating the Americans, but also completely lacking understanding of how its economy is completely unlike Europe or Asia.

    When the Americans are finished with EVs everybody there will have one, while in Europe and China they will remain expensive baubles enjoyed by the upper class. It's what the Americans do best. Scale.

    But is there even enough nickel or cobalt to build a car for everyone in America? Unless there's a new type of battery that doesn't depend on limited resources, I don't see how EV use can be widespread anywhere in the world.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    You make the all too common mistake of not only underestimating the Americans, but also completely lacking understanding of how its economy is completely unlike Europe or Asia.

    When the Americans are finished with EVs everybody there will have one, while in Europe and China they will remain expensive baubles enjoyed by the upper class. It's what the Americans do best. Scale.
    The US is a country that lurches forward in jolts. Institutions are designed so that little happens for a long time, then explosive change comes all at once, about every 30 years. And once it happens, there's no turning back. There are many barriers to new transit adoption here. By many measures, the Eisenhower Interstate System is the biggest man made project of all time. It took 35 years, from 1956 to 1992 to complete the plan. It's a hell of a sunk cost. Meanwhile, the US is still rather rural and suburban compared to most developed nations. Not very dense. Along the way, lots of businesses rely on ICE vehicles, from gas stations to mechanics to parts shops and dealerships. Commuting distances are high by OECD standards. Homes are not designed for EVs in the older and colder parts of the country. Still other places remain heavily dependent on coal and oil for electric generation, negating lots of the benefits. And trucks are simply a bigger part of the work life and culture in many places. Big SUVs popular in others. Meanwhile inequality is at record highs and increasing, making even marginal increases in the costs of vehicles increasingly bigger barriers to mass adoption. Not one part of any of these barriers has much to do with climate change skepticism or domestic oil production. Nor are these sorts of problems insurmountable. But things tend to scale, and fast, when either things don't require much government involvement and can skirt regulation on account of being new, or when federal institutions align and enough people distributed across state and local jurisdictions can make money off of a change that entrenched interests cannot stand in their way. We're still a country where pumping your own gas is illegal in New Jersey. The US has lots of legislation already on the books around zero emission vehicles, but it's happening at the state level. Of course, who selling cars in the US wants to be locked out of California & New York et all? So even if the nine states only account for a third of the US population, they can wag the dog.

    But there's going to be a lot more to it, and it's going to require some serious incentive realignment. For the millions of houses that only have 120v AC and no garage, it would take 80 hours to fully charge a Model S. That drops to 12 hours if you have a 240v AC circuit installed in your home. For some intrepid souls, you can get around this relatively cheaply by running some extension cords around a couple 110v outlets (probably on different circuits) and into an up-converter that spits out 220v AC you can buy for a few hundred dollars. But you're going to have to leave that rube goldberg nonsense hanging out the window in the snow plugged into your car, hoping that no kids/animals/other things show up and knock it out. For millions more in apartments or rented homes or condos with HOAs, this probably isn't even an allowed option. A majority of occupied housing units in the northeast do not have garages or carports, even though the figure is only at 45% nationwide. Landlords and lack of garages are probably a bigger real barrier than climate skepticism. You maybe can get somewhere about half of the residential cars to switch over to EVs without encountering this sort of problem. But even if you have a comfortable DC charging station near you, blowing an extra hour or two every day at a public charging station is a big downside. And trucks are going to be tougher to crack. Then there's the winter issues. ICE cars are a godsend if you're used to nor'easters knocking out the power for 3 days here or a week there and you don't have a generator. Lots of folks off the grid enough that some wood/oil/propane combo can be set up to get enough heat and hot water to make it livable without lights and keep the pipes from freezing. Little inverter lets you charge the electronic doohickeys off the engine, and can still drive to the store and work. Now I'm on small potatoes, but little downsides to adoption add up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dcarrigg View Post
    Meanwhile inequality is at record highs and increasing, making even marginal increases in the costs of vehicles increasingly bigger barriers to mass adoption.
    Regarding financial inequality, post WWII, I agree. But this isn't anything new. The middle class in the US has been shrinking for 50 years ever since union busting and blaming the poor for their plight became popular in the late 60s. This great age of middle class prosperity you're fond of lasted maybe 15 years. It's not America. America is a meat grinder that punishes the poor for their failures and rewards the rich for success. This isn't a great country to be average.

    Quote Originally Posted by dcarrigg View Post
    For the millions of houses that only have 120v AC and no garage, it would take 80 hours to fully charge a Model S.
    Give it a decade or so, wireless charging will be widely available. You're making an argument which assumes technology will not continue to move forward. It took decades for the automobile to replace the horse in New York. People simply got tired of removing a million tons of horse manure from the city every year. Innovation solves problems. If those innovations create new problems, innovation will solve those as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
    Regarding financial inequality, post WWII, I agree. But this isn't anything new. The middle class in the US has been shrinking for 50 years ever since union busting and blaming the poor for their plight became popular in the late 60s. This great age of middle class prosperity you're fond of lasted maybe 15 years. It's not America. America is a meat grinder that punishes the poor for their failures and rewards the rich for success. This isn't a great country to be average.
    The rapid acceleration of economic inequality is experienced differently than a steady state of high inequality. From the 1870s to the 1920s was half-a-century of high inequality. But the trajectory was actually a slow gini drop from about .50 to .48. The last 40 years have been a rapid shot up from about .37 to about .48. The only other comparable period of rapidly accelerating inequality in America was the 30 year chunk between Andrew Jackson and Abraham Lincoln that culminated in the Civil War. The difference between periods of relatively high, but stable, income inequality and periods of accelerating income inequality is that predictions made based on recent decades' experience work in the former, but often fail to grasp the profound effects of the latter. The US was much more equal in 1989 than it will be in 2019.

    Anyways, point is that people who can't afford to own their own homes or build garages or install 240v electric service aren't going to suddenly be able to afford a wireless charging driveway in 2029 or so. People still skip out on leather upholstery, real wheels, and sunroofs. Point being it's not an innovation problem. It's a wage problem.

    Give it a decade or so, wireless charging will be widely available. You're making an argument which assumes technology will not continue to move forward. It took decades for the automobile to replace the horse in New York. People simply got tired of removing a million tons of horse manure from the city every year. Innovation solves problems. If those innovations create new problems, innovation will solve those as well.
    I've gone on about this before, but the automobile didn't replace the horse, it replaced the electric streetcar and cable cars. There were more horses in the US at the end of the Model T's production run in 1927 than there were at the start in 1908, despite the fact 15 million of them rolled off the assembly line. The real collapse of the horse population in the US was later in the Great Depression and during WWII. And it was because Americans ate them. It continued to drop until it bottomed out in 1960, and it has more than tripled again since then. The ban on horse meat remains. NYC and Boston already had subways before the Model T, too. Horses and subways filled different niches than cars. EVs will fill niches too. They just may not end up filling the exact same space ICE cars do. At least that's the point I'm trying to make here.

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