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Thread: Yield Curve Jitters - We're all Technical Analysts Now

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  1. #9
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    Default YC Examples and questions

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ;313

    I encourage readers to play around with [URL="https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php"
    this handy dynamic yield curve[/URL] app. Grab the red line on the right-hand chart and slide it round recession and market correction periods.
    .
    I am trying to understand some examples of the YC.

    To use the app, click in the stock chart, above the date you want. The yield curve for that date will appear.
    Then use left/right arrows to get the exact day you want.

    It is more clear that the FED is lowering rates than that the net effect is flattening. I haven't seen any flat or negative yield
    spreads since 2008. There was actual inversion in 2000, (at rates >5%). I have not seen any flat curves in the last decade,
    or rates higher than 4.5%.

    A pity the graph does not cover 1970-1985---at least 3 recession, interest rates to the moon, gold peak Yeah!


    7 september 2000: yield curve inverting, S&P at peak, about to go down roller coaster. Fed & markets have anticipated recession, causing
    yield curve inversion.



    july 28, 2003:
    S&P climbing quickly, large spread in interest rates. Normal recovery.




    Dec 2006: YC already broken? Curve is flat to slightly inverse, but stocks are still climbing!




    August 2017:
    Yield curve has small positive spread, but rates are very low, even though stock prices are climbing
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Polish_Silver; 12-25-18 at 07:09 AM. Reason: add emphasis

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