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Thread: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by FRED View Post
    Thanks for investing in VirZOOM.
    Please PM "FRED" with your full name that was signed up at Wefunder.com/ VirZOOM.
    We will grant you full access to "iTulip Select" and "VirZOOM" forums.
    Done!

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by LargoWinch View Post
    Careful what you wish for.

    iTulip best course of action is not a “re-launch” but a graceful shutdown. This should have been done at least half a decade ago.
    Eric and iTulip certainly appear to be working hard, but the cold hard truth is that their forecasting ability is simply abysmal. And I mean truly abysmal. I estimate that about only 1 in 10 “predictions” by iTulip have turned out to be accurate. But what is more unfortunate is that some predictions were simply truly stunning misses and completely unrelated to what iTulip was supposed to represent: a macro forecasting forum (see details below).
    In fairness, I do not think it is possible for virtually anyone to forecast the markets.
    6- Eric Janszen likes to point out that he was a CEO in technology companies. I am sure that is true, but in May of 2013 Tesla reached for the first time the $110+ mark. And so, iTulip (yes the macro fund) called it a “top” on that stock and recommended a short-sell position be undertaken in or about June that year when the stock was trading at near $90-$100. The rationale was that batteries for these cars were far too fragile and that they would have to be replaced at great costs to Tesla which would eventually go bankrupt due to extended warranties on them. Today Tesla is trading at $360 per share and is selling more luxury sedans than any other automakers in the US. They have been a fantastic investments for those who invested along with Mr. Musk. As for those who shorted the stock starting in June 2013 at around $100 per share – they are not that lucky.

    Through all those years, the community was aware early of BitCoin. iTulip never ever recommended them. BitCoin, even more so than Nasdaq in 2009, or amazon, or Netflix was the investment of the century. Today, a single bitcoin which cost less than $1 is worth $4000. iTulip never ever addressed the issue of Crypto.

    I wish iTulip would simply shut down honorably. Everyone can be wrong.

    However, glossing over the past while still trying to “reboot” and continue on in the forecasting business is not fair to potential new members.


    It is time for iTulip to move on by closing down.
    I applaud EJ's efforts to try to forecast the macro storm.

    I didn't jump on the TruTouch bandwagon, but I have recently joined VirZoom as it aligns with a few macro trends(health/wellness, entertainment, platform strategy, and hopefully community).

    And it offers free Select subscription which will certainly warm up in the coming few years(hopefully the 5 year for $1k in VirZoom SAFE note scales with the investment! ;) )

    Anywho, despite all the weirdness in recent years that reduced the signal and increased the noise there's a few things worth mentioning that make this forum interesting:

    EJ's serendipitous interaction with US energy companies when Fukushima(and nearly Japan) went up like the Death Star.

    EJ's shift towards entrepreneurship again which dovetailed with my own.

    EJ's call on "Fortress America" well prior to the 2016 election.

    I also believe EJ stated that making calls in a "rigged" artificial environment were pointless.

    The biggest lesson I learned is that the world can remain irrational far longer than I thought possible.

    I'm pretty sure EJ did make a call on Bitcoin? I could be wrong, but I thought be posted somewhere here that it would head to zero with the only question as to when.

    I was less than thrilled in recent years with iTulip(lack of content and high value conversation).

    I'm betting it will change for the better.

    If there's one thing I hope we can get in the new new iTulip it would have to be "in the moment" surveys, long-form polls, or "X" to mitigate against confirmation/conformity bias in the period ahead.

  3. #43
    DSpencer is offline iTulip Ambassador/Select Premium Member
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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by vt@ 10:20 AM
    If I had sold gold in 2011 on the silver sale call the profit would have been higher.
    4 hours later...
    Quote Originally Posted by vt@ 2:34 PM

    As for silver, yes it's not gold. But I certainly saw that call as an indication of a top in other commodities including gold, so I sold.
    I'm glad that this conversation reminded you to get in your time machine and go back 7 years to realize those profits. You are so full of it.

    Nobody is impressed by you pretending to have made really amazing trades after the fact. If you want to prove that you are using all your unique insights to make huge profits, start a thread with your portfolio. Update it as you make changes. Then people can see for themselves how you perform.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by DSpencer View Post
    4 hours later...

    I'm glad that this conversation reminded you to get in your time machine and go back 7 years to realize those profits. You are so full of it.

    Nobody is impressed by you pretending to have made really amazing trades after the fact. If you want to prove that you are using all your unique insights to make huge profits, start a thread with your portfolio. Update it as you make changes. Then people can see for themselves how you perform.
    Sorry to butt in, but it was always my understanding that here on iTulip, we do not appreciate personal attacks of any sort. Period"

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by LargoWinch View Post
    hey jk - the benefits you draw from iTulip.com doesn't change the fact that iTulip, the "product", is being sold as a forecasting tool: "You heard it first!" or "Who could have known?" or "Forecasting the future since 1998!".

    The forecasting business sells. It is also sold typically on a membership format yearly or otherwise. That is precisely the iTulip model.

    Arguing to the contrary is frankly dishonest.

    Furthermore, predictions and/or positions argued by iTulip in the past (ex: consider buying gold in the late 90s) are revisited and yes, very much celebrated and used to further increase the members base e.g. "we told you to do buy gold at $250/oz and we were right, so please buy a membership and we will tell you what comes next".

    That jk, is the exact definition of a paid forecasting electronic newsletter.

    Saddly, as I wrote in details earlier in this thread, forecasts by iTulip after December 2007 have been stunningly wrong.


    PS: I know I am harsh with iTulip, but that is the cold hard truth. For the record, I truly appreciate the efforts of EJ (love you still man!) and the community. We need more people like that in society. I am also very much angry at myself. I could have said back in 08/09 "hey guys! wait a minute what if...". I didn't. However, I do not benefit financially from iTulip and I do not make claim about the fact that I can provide accurate predictions or forecasts.
    1) A rigorous independent analysis of the iTulip portfolio since inception was conducted that reveals that it out-performed a range of benchmarks over the period. You are making misrepresentations of fact that could damage the reputation of the site and its host.
    2) You are being disrespectful of the host of this site and of other members.

    We are glad to give you the opportunity to apologize and conduct yourself respectfully going forward.
    Last edited by FRED; 12-06-18 at 11:17 AM.
    Ed.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by DSpencer View Post
    4 hours later...

    I'm glad that this conversation reminded you to get in your time machine and go back 7 years to realize those profits. You are so full of it.

    Nobody is impressed by you pretending to have made really amazing trades after the fact. If you want to prove that you are using all your unique insights to make huge profits, start a thread with your portfolio. Update it as you make changes. Then people can see for themselves how you perform.
    Kindly refrain from ad homonym attacks. iTulip is a club where we treat each other with respect even when we disagree. Thank you!
    Ed.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Coles View Post
    Sorry to butt in, but it was always my understanding that here on iTulip, we do not appreciate personal attacks of any sort. Period"
    Hey Chris, it my understanding that trolls were dealt with a gollum avatar and then banned? Illogical, non-sensical and repeatedly false comments destroy the iTulip experience and will understandably be a cause of frustration for those who do not abide by such tactics.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by FRED View Post
    1) A rigorous independent analysis of the iTulip portfolio since inception was conducted that reveals that it out-performed a range of benchmarks over the period. You are making misrepresentations of fact that could damage the reputation of the site and its host.
    2) You are being disrespectful of the host of this site and of other members.

    We are glad to give you the opportunity to apologize and conduct yourself respectfully going forward.
    FRED, I have edited my post to better convey what I meant. I trust this revised version is not misrepresenting facts and that it is not disrespectful to any members.

  9. #49
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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by LargoWinch View Post
    FRED, I have edited my post to better convey what I meant. I trust this revised version is not misrepresenting facts and that it is not disrespectful to any members.
    hmmmm... mebbe a tad heavy handed by the fredster... but i get where he's coming from...

    ej's an inventor... tough row to hoe on da internets. 99% of the pop is copiers/repeaters.

    over the years invented one thing after another... starting with...

    a financial blogger before financial blogs... http://www.itulip.com/knowyourmania.html

    the part i free, part ii paid concept... copied everywhere.

    god knows how many theories he came up with... pilfered by others.

    whole sites based on just 1 old ej article...

    http://www.thebubblebubble.com

    ...looks like circa 2005 reprint...

    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-Cycle-Janszen

    side bets on how long before we see 'active asset price inflation' w/no attribution?

    itulip doesn't play to doomer emotion ala zero hedge... cuts out 99% of the audience.

    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...e-You-a-Doomer

    then there's the awesome folks itulip attracts... too many here to name... some passed on. remember sapiens? that guy was amazing!

    you too, dude!

    my advice... 2 kinds of folks in this world... build things up guys & tear things down guys. it's hard to build, easy to tear down.

    be a builder.

    peace out.

    ps... that itulip portfolio analysis is the real deal. heavy on long t-bonds, wonder how well it did since 2010? prolly damn well...

    https://www.investmentnews.com/artic...heard-it-right

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Regret the confusion. The first instance was hypotheticals.

    "These aren't the recommended 30 year Treasury bonds EJ spoke of, but it does show the extent of how bonds have been an excellent investment the last
    18 years. I could have also bought long term munis in a taxable account.

    "But wait there is more! EJ's advice was take 15% out of bonds and buy gold at $250 in 2001. Gold is now $1,263. Only 5 times growth in 17 years.
    If I had sold gold in 2011 on the silver sale call the profit would have been higher.

    I wouldn't have needed to buy stocks at all after 2000. Sitting in bonds and gold would have grown my nest with less risk:-)"

    The word that is implied is "if one had" "If one had sold gold on the silver sale" "One wouldn't have needed to buy stocks"
    It was incorrect to use the word I, but was running on little sleep and at 71 that is not a good formula for clear thinking.

    The commodity index (CRB) topped out at the same time that silver (and gold) did in 2011, and
    hasn't been as high since.

    Since beginning to follow this site in 2010 it has been fascinating to watch the economic rubik cube
    revolve in every way possible to try to deal with the aftermath of two crashes.

    Investors have been taken for a roller coaster ride they didn't sign up for. Real money has been
    made and lost. Expectations have been raised and dashed.

    In 55 years of studying markets and sports performance one sees many measures of success
    and failure. Coaches and forecasters make decisions based on known factors and results vary
    all over the place. However at the end of the day there are wins and losses. Short and long term records.

    In trying to convey the big picture of the real result, one looks back to see the short term results, the moves
    that should have been made or avoided. You can look at a coaches or forecasters calls and
    find fault with some, but at the end of the day it's the bottom line, the overall strategic goal plan.

    We have to read carefully and critically (as well as write and edit what one writes before posting).

    We are all learning and trying to help each other. Let that continue.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Thanks MM and I agree completely; iTulip somehow draws an incredibly diverse group of very smart people (and yes, God bless Sapiens – he indeed missed an interesting chapter). I also by no means want to dismiss EJ’s previous hits. These are both very real and commendable.

    I do however firmly believe that the markets are long dead. The few guys in charge have full control. They will get what they want when they want. Therefore, there is not point in trying to make sense of it or forecast any of it.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by FRED View Post
    Kindly refrain from ad homonym attacks. iTulip is a club where we treat each other with respect even when we disagree. Thank you!
    There seems to be a form of Gresham's Law that could be applied to the internet. Bad forum members drive out good ones. Usually it takes the form of people who are openly rude or post agenda-based content that is irrelevant to current discussion. A good forum usually needs moderation to prevent ad hominem attacks from derailing discussion on actual issues. This site has generally succeeded in enforcing those rules and maintaining a civil debate. But what happens when polite members post, as LargoWinch says, "illogical, non-sensical and repeatedly false comments"?

    What's the polite way of calling someone out for making obviously contradictory statements in order to make themselves appear like a smart investor? I can't help but feel that the real issue is that vt was being obsequious toward EJ by implying his silver call was also secret message to sell gold and that was a good thing. If his point had been that EJ told us to sell gold and that was stupid, I assume he'd be getting hit with a "fraudulent misrepresentation" type message.

    The elephant in the room is that itulip's record after about 2009 is bad for a while and then basically non-existent. Itulip is not just a "once a decade stock market crash prediction website" with 2 great calls. It would be one thing if after 2009 itulip just went dormant and everyone just drew their own conclusions. Instead, EJ was actively warning about the stock market and the impending end of the rally and how miserable everything was going to be for a decade. Then, in my humble opinion, the message got muddled. This is purely my speculative opinion, but it didn't seem like EJ was confident anymore after a few years of...well, being wrong. Not stupid, not clueless, not wrong about everything, but wrong about enough to warn against stocks. If I'm mistaken about all that, then feel free to call me names and banish me forever, but please at least post the articles to prove it to me first.

    What I can't stand is people who now want to pretend that everyone who was reading itulip obviously loaded up on stocks right at the bottom in 2009 and are still holding them today. That isn't what the articles suggested. That isn't what the itulip portfolio did. Sure, it's totally possible that an itulip member could have done exactly the right thing at the right time. But it's silly to say that the key is to only listen to itulip when it's right. That's what led to this whole rant in the first place. Some members want to pretend that if you just squinted the right way, it was perfectly clear that itulip was suggesting do X Y and Z which all turned out great in hindsight and if you couldn't figure it out, that's your own fault for not being savvy like they are. I call BS on that. If that's too rude or if the "new itulip" is predicated on sycophantic insistence that itulip has a perfect track record, then again, feel free to ban me.

    I truly hope this doesn't come across as whiny or disrespectful, but if this viewpoint isn't welcome, I don't belong here anyway.

  13. #53
    DSpencer is offline iTulip Ambassador/Select Premium Member
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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by metalman View Post

    ps... that itulip portfolio analysis is the real deal. heavy on long t-bonds, wonder how well it did since 2010? prolly damn well...
    Blue line is itulip, red line is 60/40 Total US stocks/Total US bonds.


    Above is 2010 - 2018. Below is from 2001.


    You can use the link to change dates etc if you just want to see for example add in 2000. You can also see drawdown, std dev, etc which are generally very favorable for itulip if you are using the 2001-2018 time period. It's actually remarkable how long it took a standard 60/40 portfolio to catch up. 2010, 2011 and 2012 are basically a dead heat and if at any point in that time frame EJ would have said "screw it, itulip is going 60/40 stock bonds", this would be an unbelievable 2 decades. Forecasting is easy in hindsight!

    The buy and hold stocks/bonds crowd has pulled ahead, but to be fair, I don't think itulip claims to still use this allocation. I'm also starting in 2001 and the results are slightly better if you use the itulip portfolio since 2000, but I don't know have the tools to link the varying allocations over time.


    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...d2=40&Gold1=15


    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    I'll be resubbing to itulip. Not all of us expect perfection in this business. Glad you're back EJ

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Again regret confusion, but here is what I stated.

    12/3 "Sell silver in April 2011 was also key. Gold and silver generally move together. Since gold is more conservative than silver, a buy call on silver is not necessary.
    If I own gold in an IRA, I don't worry about taxes. However EJ has stated that for taxable investors there is a capital gains tax on trying to sell an asset.
    If you sell those taxes reduce capital and how can you tell when to get back in during uncertain times."

    EJ did not say to sell gold, and the reason is the above tax problem. Also from reading EJ since 2010 and reviewing old posts I believe his view is that gold eventually could go quite a bit higher than the $1,900
    top. What I was trying to impart was precisely what I said that in an IRA you don't have taxes. As I said today the CRB index, which is the major commodities, also topped. Now I do use technical analysis; EJ has
    stated that he doesn't I believe. If support is broken then the technician may sell. Of course there are many false breakdowns and breakouts, especially with computerized trading being manipulated. But if
    I see an entire index break down I at least take notice. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

    Remember EJ takes a long view and from what I surmise tries to help us avoid the disasters and participate in the long term trend. To criticize his "short term
    calls" is a misnomer. I wouldn't call his comments calls, I see them as insight of what is going on. They are certainly not recommendations from what I read.

    The comment I made about the timing of buying after EJ's predicted sell calls in 2000 and 2007 is a simple deduction of exactly what EJ said, plain and simple.
    He said the market would drop 50% from the 2000 top; the S&P 500 dropped 45%, the NASDAQ 80%. Buying after a huge bear market is not a precise event.
    However if someone gives you a precise top timing wise with full, exhaustive sate leading up to it, wouldn't you consider his magnitude of decline call an
    invitation to consider getting back in? There were a lot of factors in late 2002 that suggested it was a good time to consider putting money back to work.

    The 2007 sell call said a drop of 40%; it was over 50% so one might have gotten in a bit early. but you still would have caught most of this market. And EJ never gave any
    real sell signals all the way up. He did suggest a pause in February 2014 that at least led me to infer bonds would do better than stock for a short period. As
    I clearly stated two people can read the same thing and get different opinions.

    I don't know EJ, Finister, or Fred. I respect what they write and say and find value as a paid subscriber. I was a bit shocked to see a post that accused EJ of "bad" calls since 2009.
    What calls? I felt like I wanted to at least state what value I derived and that I had not seen any such bad record. As I said some may have felt that EJ should have given clear interim advice
    on a more frequent basis. But I read that he stated you couldn't get this because of the manipulation by the FED, taking out the "market" equation.

    "Bad" forum members. How so? maybe not being perfectly clear on one comment that was hypothetical, clearly with the word "if". DC and I have had discussions and we disagree with each other. but I respect him.
    If someone is not clear ask a question to clarify, but it's not helpful to label someone.

    We have a good number of excellent posters and compelling information. The inquiry continues.




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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    I think we need to consider the geopolitcal risks as Ray Dalios has done so, this could easily become a huge issue. Warren Buffett bought Apple at the top of the market without considering the risk of trade war worsening. The Chinese real estate bubble is another underestimated risk.

    While the stock market might rally further, but the political risks are simpler too much to ignore.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by touchring View Post
    I think we need to consider the geopolitcal risks as Ray Dalios has done so, this could easily become a huge issue. Warren Buffett bought Apple at the top of the market without considering the risk of trade war worsening. The Chinese real estate bubble is another underestimated risk.

    While the stock market might rally further, but the political risks are simpler too much to ignore.
    Speaking of political risks, today's news that was widely blamed for causing market volatility was the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the Chinese Huawei's chief financial officer, in Canada.

    Mad Money's Jim Cramer weighed in with the opinion that echoed the common, uninformed mis-interpretation that the arrest was politically motivated. Huawei mobile device security warnings issued by US security agencies earlier this year were similarly mis-interpeted as politically motivated.

    I've been to China on multiple occasions over the past several years while running VirZOOM. I've come in contact with Huawei directly and indirectly in ways that inform a different opinion.

    The VirZOOM team has worked closely with Huawei and gotten to know the company well.

    Huawei launched its new VR2 stand-alone VR headset with IMAX and VirZOOM at CES earlier this year.

    We ran a successful global vSports test later in the year with Huawei iLab engineers in Shenzhen, and VZ employees in Europe and the US east and west coast while Huawei's team collected performance data. VirZOOM continues to explore a Pan Asia distribution agreement with Huawei.

    I've learned a great deal about how China operates from firsthand experience that I think is relevant to the re-launched iTulip project, knowledge I didn't have before.

    I located and engaged our product manufacturer Topko located about an hour from Shanghai and have visited on several occasions.

    I negotiated a major distribution contract with Datang Telecom Technology & Industry Group, a Chinese telecommunications equipment group headquartered in Beijing, China and the 10th largest majority state-owned company in China.

    I've met with over a dozen Chinese VCs and public companies over the years.

    Stories I can share behind the paywall but cannot share here in public, given ongoing business between my company and Asian business partners, will help iTulip members understand what China is about and how differences in national objectives and ways of thinking will pose special challenges.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    Speaking of political risks, today's news that was widely blamed for causing market volatility was the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the Chinese Huawei's chief financial officer, in Canada.
    This might be only the latest news, but I'm not referring to this latest incident. The underlying problem has existed for a long time and the risk only became prominent since a couple years ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    Stories I can share behind the paywall but cannot share here in public, given ongoing business between my company and Asian business partners, will help iTulip members understand what China is about and how differences in national objectives and ways of thinking will pose special challenges.
    I don't think there's even a national objective in China right now (aside from the propaganda). I'm sure many American politicians in the Donald Trump administration have decades of experience doing business in China.
    Last edited by touchring; 12-07-18 at 02:30 AM.

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    2) I argue here that the Fed has the means to at least forestall an untimely crash, perhaps indefinitely, and has used it in the past
    If the Fed can forestall a crash, then in theory they can deliberately bring one on. If Trump is a fly in the ointment of globalists as many think, then we might expect a recession timed to ruin Trump's reelection chances. That begs the question... is Trump really a fly in their ointment? If so, is it bad enough to influence the Fed to deliberately sabotage Trump? Or perhaps, if there needs to be a recession anyway, why not conveniently time it if that can be done?

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    Default Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    vt,

    "There are none so blind as those who will not see"

    You keep asking questions that have already been answered. You keep making statements that have already been refuted. It's clear that you will continue to believe what you already believe and nothing I post will change that.

    Best of luck.

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