Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
Yup, exponential growth can be a bitch and early on it's not easy to build models that aren't off by a factor of 2X or more. I've re-calibrated my model over the last 2+ weeks as I was too optimistic. My current model for the US is within 3-4% over the last week and I expect it will require some adjustment as the long tail of this unwinds.
I guess we are both doing the same thing - adjusting our models/estimates.

That is massively incorrect. Today's growth rate in Italy was ~4%. That's a doubling over 17-18 days, not a doubling over ~4 days.
If you read my post carefully I think you will see that I was talking about the U.S. there, not the world.

Sweet Jesus, you don't want to hang your argument on the coat hook of that buffoon?! "It's a democratic hoax" to 200,000 dead? If you support one, please support both.
I don't support either. I think he's low both times. Just saying I think he's moving in the right direction. I guess you think he's now too high.

As I asked before, please just give it up. You're just making up numbers. At this point it looks like 15-30,000 dead in the US.
Hope you are right. 8,500 right now.

Agree, we should have been prepared, we should have put health above finance, we didn't do either. It would have been better to have an effective leader in the administration but I think what we've learned again is that the US system is quite resilient in its design. We've seen governors step up and work with their health care systems to manage the outbreak. We've also seen them, (and the virus), shame the administration into working to slow this outbreak. This is not a train wreak, this is how the US F*s up most critical issues and then out performs almost every other country and finally pretends we invented every solution.

You could not have invented a worse person to lead this effort in the US but he is an American. As a group we are wired to always believe we're correct until we've been beaten over the head a few times and realize our ideas are s*it. Then we adopt a new path, pretending it was always our desired path. We're totally annoying that way but we have no allegiance to a losing cause. Watch what happens over the next month.
Well said.